iCharts Discussions

[rk_a2003]

Casper !

I am going through this thread.Wonderfull explanation regarding O.I. with out understanding FII's role( Writers of put/call ) in it we simply fail to understand the very essence of OI or put/call ratio( as u said ).

Even the August expiry is a striking example of it .On expiry day all Asian markets are up up to 3% ,previous night US & europe markets too up by 2-3 %

Still our markets 'decoupled ' for the day and closed in negative .The chart pattern shows that market tried to go up for a long time and at one point sudden selling is nailing it down with vertical drop., Means, The Institutions are in heavy short positions for this month and they are not allowing market to go up on the expiry day.

Even, we can say the eye sight of FII's are so sharp that they can see in to deep spaces of the universe.There ears are so sensitive that they can hear even the whishpers in S&P analysis wing regarding US down grade.

Due to this hyper sensitive organs ,they know about all major economic events well in advance. Even some times if need arises they can create one too.

Have you gone through a book called " Confessions of an Economic Hitman " by John Perkins. Which explained an insider view of theese economic manipulations by big institutes.A wonderfull book to read.

Regards
RK

[vinay28]

Casper

Sorry, this is the first time I saw your post on S-band. I am attaching an article along with my note below assuming that you seem to be interested in this subject. My apologies for a very long technical note and for boring you in case you have no interest in the subject. But, please read the article before you read my note.

Background
As you may be aware, there have been many new entrants in the Indian telecom market and this has led to dilution of the existing operators' market share. This can be practically verified by a statistical data called as Subscriber Churn, which is periodically published by the DoT along with Service Quality parameters for all Indian Cellular Operators.

Most of the new operators had applied for the spectrum only to sell it off later for a profit and many of them neither had the technical expertise nor the intent to roll out cellular services. A proof of this is the fact that they have managed to procure license locally for a financially non-lucrative sector, which they plan to sell out to the major telecos for a pan-India roll out of their services. The new companies acted just like traders and the non-perishable commodity they were trading was the Spectrum itself.

The wise guys at our DoT saw right through these Traders' gameplan and gave them an ultimatum to either roll out services by deadline or face spectrum relinquishment as a penalty. This has resulted in partial roll out in some of the sectors. However, the Indian telecom markets are the cheapest on the planet. As a result, long term sustenance is a big challenge for new entrants. The next big thing in Indian Telecom market is Mergers and Acquisitions, big fish eating the small fish. I remember reading somewhere that Indian markets can accommodate not more than six nation wide telecom service providers. My guess is that they are BSNL, Airtel, Vodafone, Reliance, Tata, and Idea or Aircel (yes, now that's a surprise).

The smaller companies like MTS, STel, Uninor, Etisalat and HFCL are likely to sellout and shut shop. This is similar to something like the takeover of BPL (Loop) Mobile by Vodafone. Why they did not go ahead with a merger is, I guess, another marketing and strategic story. Now the important thing is that the revenues for most of the telecos will fall post the M&A because of the fact that the technological turnaround time for these technologies is considerably longer.

Even if there are no M&A's in the near future, the telecos will definitely not be able to cover the losses in the next three to four quarters. The 3G roll out is still underway and a pan-India deployment by operators is still awaited. So if I had invested in them then I would definitely rethink my strategy. I don't think that S-band would make any difference to the existing situation. If anything, I think, it could only make the situation worse.

Now regarding the article I have attached:

1. At present India/ISRO has access to the S band, with operating frequencies between 2.5 GHz and 2.69 GHz i.e. spectrum of only 190MHz (2.69-2.5). 190 MHz of spectrum is sufficient for at least a dozen New Spy Satellites (highest bandwidth hogger) which would send live feeds espionage events around the world.

2. We do not possess adequate satellites in space to consume the complete 190 MHz and could risk losing the spectrum due to non usage clause, as pointed out in the article by R Srinivasan.

3. Department of Space (DoS) was awarded with the 190 MHz way back in 1979-80 and, since then, it has made little or no use of it.

4. The split between the then operating Govt. Agencies was as below
ISRO (Satellite Comm.) - 150 MHz - Undisclosed Amount.
BSNL (Broadband Usage) - 20 MHz - 12,847 Cr
MTNL (Broadband Usage) - 20 MHz - 12,847 Cr

5. However ISRO has leased out (?) 70 MHz to Devas (a Mobile Satellite Co.) for around 1,000 Cr, leaving our Space Programme with a spectrum of only 80 MHz.

6. Operators in several other countries are already using the S-band for providing mobile broadband services using fourth generation (4G) technologies such as WiMax and Long Term Evolution (LTE) after the World Radiocommunications Conference 2000, held under the aegis of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), designated the 2.5 GHz band for mobile services. With this step, ITU double crossed DoS and ISRO by allocating the same frequency for Satellite Communications as well as Terrestrial Cellular Broadcast.

7. The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) wrote in May 2008, as its recommendations for the National Frequency Allocation Plan 2008, that "Due to the lack of availability of spectrum in 2.1 GHz to meet India’s 3G requirements, it is important that the use of full 2.5 GHz to 2.69 GHz band as an extension band for 3G needs to be assured to have secure and predictable access to spectrum in order to provide social and economic advantages".

8. DoS has, however, argued that S-Band is needed for radio networking, cyclone warning dissemination system, meteorological data dissemination and satellite mobile television transmission. In a letter to TRAI in December 2009, scientific secretary to ISRO, A Bhaskarnarayana said, "DOS in principle identified 40 MHz out of the 190 MHz available with it for use for wireless broadband applications such Wimax technologies. Use of the S-Band for wireless broadband technologies will be subject to ensuring protection to mobile satellite services and broadband satellite services in the spectrum bands adjacent to proposed broadband wireless applications spectrum bands”.

9. COAI is not satisfied because the 40 MHz, allocated by DoS for broadband applications, is already awarded to BSNL & MTNL (para # 4). They are now gunning for the 70 MHz awarded (?) to Devas for Mobile Satellite Service (para # 5). Their view is that 4G can provide 2 Mbps Voice & Data service to around 300 million Indians whereas the Mobile Satellite Service can be accessible for Voice Communications for only 0.1 million Indians.

10. Possible long term solution

(a) DoS can/should take legal action against ITU for having double crossed India for billions of Indians.

(b) Ministry of Communications (MoC) has delicensed the 2.4 GHz recently, in 2008. This was to comply to ITU regulations which set the 2.4 GHz band as ISM (Industrial, Scientific & Medical). MoC, TRAI, COAI and DoT can/should jointly agree to re-license the band and use it for 3G and 4G operations. Many countries including China, S Korea and Japan do not comply to ITU regulations on frequency usage. They have developed their own mobile broadband networks which are far better than the ITU regulated 3G, Wi-Max and 4G networks.

(c) In order to ensure a level playing field for all operators, DoS can/should scrap the Devas deal (?) and auction the 70 MHz spectrum for Mobile Satellite Service.

(d) However, being in a weird democratic republic like India and keeping in mind the sentiments of all stakeholders, the GoI/MoC is more likely to take a neutral approach of either not doing anything, which would result in a legal battle between COAI and DoS, or allow both parties to operate simultaneously but in separate sectors, so that no one gets a Pan-India coverage and as a result the spectrum becomes unattractive to major operators.

Hope you find the above interesting.
Vinay

[casper]

hii rk and vinay

sorry for a late reply, and thank you for your kind comments



yes fii or smart money or operator whatever u call them, they seems to know every thing in well advance....., u know what happens, when we say FII we refer to a group of market participants who are off shore basic, since vinay has a very higher back ground in his personal life and rk, you are a permanent resident of another country, i hope both of you will understand that the generic term FII includes all the off shore participants including some of the smaller pension fund and small time hedge funds as well as big shots who works with millions of dollars, what i want to say by aforesaid sentence is, although all are fii, but "extra sensory perceptions" seems to be the characteristics of the bigshots.

now how they know it and what is the method they follows, i dont know, but when i am trying to see through the charts, i am trying to follow an ideal guy u can say, who, by "god knows how" does right thing in right moment in the market

being a market participant myself, its no wonder that i will try to follow that "right guy" always, so my stand is " i dont know how he knows exactly when it comes to make a bottom or top,i.e trends beginning and change, but if i some how get an idea of what he is upto, to get benefited,i will follow him blindly" here i am not following a fund house, nor any experts, i am essentially trying to follow the winner side, whomever the winner is, i dont know his/her identity, nor i really care to know how he does, all i am trying is to FIND HIS FOOT PRINT on the chart, thats all

all the indicators, systems, ways of analyzing are essentially trying to see that foot print and trying to follow it, as closely as possible, OI/PCR analysis is not an exception to this.

i have tried various indicators, methods, system in my life, lots and lots of them, only to find that foot print detector, u can say, i went in an expedition to search and find that "touch stone" i could not find that, got back with a broken heart, and finally, in my "house hold" i got that "touch stone", yes really now i have that touch stone.... a simple indicator, which always tells me in well advance what my dear "right guy" is upto


rk

thanks for mentioning that book, but brother, i will tell you that when it comes to the market related literature, i may be most "illiterate guy going around" i have read some 20 pages of MURPHY, 10 pages of NISON and some 100 pages of ELDER, by doing so, my energy ran out and i kept them aside for good, since i have my ways to see the things, i really dont like to follow others, bcoz either they seem to endorse my point of view [ which i already posses ] or seems to contradict, which is even dangerous for me, it can confuse me and effectively ruin my capability, so i really dont read market related book, though i am a book worm in true sense still, when it comes about market, i prefer my good old charts [ written in a causal sprint, plz dont misunderstand me]



vinay

thanks for the detail post regarding the S band, i have gone through that post and downloaded the attachment, it is really interesting post and by this weekend, i hope to go through the attachment as well, [ could not start due to busy schedule]

[rk_a2003]

Casper !

The book I mentioned is not related to Market. It is a book which tells us how International monetary powers manipulate Emerging countries/Markets in all possible ways(By Hook or crook ). It's a first hand factual information.

In generall we know, that all these things happens, still when we read such books in particular we get lot of inputs and enhancements.

Yes , I accept with you , for a person like you no more need to read market related books.Infact ,you may author one. if you are able to get a good publsher It could very well be a best seller.

I am serious! why can't you write a book?. You are a prolific writer (from your vast post's in this site I can easily make out this ) .Even you posted thousands here still I can't see one single nonsensical post. Every bit you wrote was making a lot of sense.

After writing a book, in case you don't find a publisher, let me know, I will publish it.

RK

[casper]

hi brother

thanks for encouragements, yes may be some day in future i may write one,

u know presently i am hired by an institution to teach their traders, i would not put the name here and i got a horrible experience there, it was shocking for me to found that so called professional traders do not know many basic concepts though they are more qualified in terms of degrees than me

that experience gave me an impression that, whoever taught them, either that guy was not a complete t.a himself or he did not wanted to give them all and some what made the students dependent on him for life time, thus creating an opportunity for himself

if 2nd is the true case, then it might be a trend among teachers/authors to not to show all the cards to students/readers and thus , effectively making them dependent on him for life time

and if it is the case, then i will be a sure "mismatch" , as i believe in spreading of knowledge to all

by the way

as you have mentioned that this book does not deals with trading techniques, now i am going to search it and i can assure u, that i may not stop reading unless i reach the last page

[ronypan]

[vinay28]

Gosh casper, whatever gave you the idea that ".......since vinay has a very higher back ground in his personal life........"?

Anyway, in reality, the so called "FIIs" that we talk about and blame for cheating us are actually market makers. They are also giant "traders". They are by no means small but are actually very big in regard to what field they concentrate on i.e. index, equity (short, medium and long term), F&O, etc. Each FII or their division or fund have a mandate to concentrate on one or two areas only. They have every bit of information on market data/position and that too in real time. They also have a very powerful algorithm to act fast, in micro/milli seconds. Although, that is how they "play" with poor traders like millions of us, their actuall goal is to "do" what their technical experts direct them to do, namely, buy and sell. It is we who are suckers.

The best way to study this is to study daily volatility vis-a-vis historical volatility, particularly in options. When we hear and feel good that FIIs have bought, they could actually be buying puts or covering sold puts. Generally, they buy (or sell) futures and also sell calls (or puts).

We can not fight them and should only try to understand what they are doing by studying volatility. This is something I have just learnt as an information.

Vinay

[rk_a2003]

Of course Vinay ! How can an ant dream of fighting with an elephant? At max. it only can ride on it, if it is intelligent enough.

[chrome]

Hi all, just inturrupting a bit on fii trading style v/s our's.......try trading nifty based on DEFTY....or say trading crudeoil on mcx based on US dollar based CLV11.NYM charts !!

as per my observations, one can find early signals based on above mentioned technicals...

I may be wrong too !!

[mrvishal_g]

Congratulation Brother
For getting job of a TA teacher, you actually deserve for it and i am sure that will be a good TA teacher.
Best of Luck.
Vishal

[rk_a2003]

'i have tried various indicators, methods, system in my life, lots and lots of them, only to find that foot print detector, u can say, i went in an expedition to search and find that "touch stone" i could not find that, got back with a broken heart, and finally, in my "house hold" i got that "touch stone", yes really now i have that touch stone.... a simple indicator, which always tells me in well advance what my dear "right guy" is upto ".

I wonder why no one is asking Casper for that touchstone?!.

At least guess what it is?

[vinay28]

Casper dear, do you charge for teaching or is it free?

[casper]

hi vishal bhaiyya

after a very long time

how are u now a days? trading or busy in job and business??


rk

at first u try to find out, its most simple and one of the basic t.a tools, but it never got its due respect from any one [ at least i have never seen any one paying importance to that one] and try to predict the market, if u cant and still want to know, "pm" me, i will reply you,

i could open a topic like layman's thread about it, but nowadays really i dont hv the time to follow up a topic regularly,
[sporadic posting and commenting is one thing and describing strategies, testing that in various market conditions and simultaneously clearing doubt of others is another thing... the later needs much more dedication otherwise, it will turn to be a hoax one] so i wont be able to start describing the method in open forum any time soon [hope u understand the situation ]

vinay

i still remember the day when i was searching a literature about candlesticks in google and whatever was popping out, i was noting down in a paper, its not very distant past...[ at that time my pc was out of order and i had no money to repair it, hence was using some cheap cyber cafe] and suddenly a website called icharts.in popped out of google as a result of a keyword " nse candlestick chart"


my journey of t.a and market went hand in hand with this website, this website and its charts melted in such a way in me that presently i have metastocks and access to real time data too, but i dont feel comfortable at all in any other charting tool, other than jcharts

the institute which hired me charges a very large sum of money..... but here in ichart, which is and always will be a special place for me,[some sort of temple u can say]no body can stop me from sharing my knowledge with all my brother and sisters as long as i stick to the rules of this website, so its free here, as always

[vinay28]

Casper, I was asking about charges at the institute you are teaching at.

[casper]

30k pm

[its what i get per head]*


*adding this part by editing