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SW's Diary

 
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Are going to rally past 3500 and achieve 3800+ in Apr-2009?
Yes
36%
 36%  [ 22 ]
No
50%
 50%  [ 31 ]
I don't care :-)
13%
 13%  [ 8 ]
Total Votes : 61

Author SW's Diary
swaroopbn
White Belt
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Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 39

Post: #1   PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:08 pm    Post subject: SW's Diary Reply with quote

Hello All,

Posting two charts.

Chart I - Nifty made a descending triangle and upon BO the TGT was achived in a flash Shocked .

Chart II - Was able to locate a symmetric triangle. Upon BO @ 2860, Nifty is running hard like last time and there is no looking back. Are we going to achieve the TGT in this month. Just to add NF Monthly R3 is around same level.

Cheers,
SW
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naresh1711
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Joined: 20 May 2007
Posts: 15
Location: mumbai

Post: #2   PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HI

Triangle observations are alright , can u throw some light on tgt calculation & any reason for them to vary incase of different kind of triangles as case in point.

Thx & Regards

_________________
Disclaimer:
Any recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all the risks involved in the stock markets.
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swaroopbn
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Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 39

Post: #3   PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rise from BO pt is normally => triangle height.

Tgt = BO Level + Triangle Height

You can see in both the charts the triangle height and projected tgts are equal (marked with "=" sign).
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anshuman
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Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


Swaroopbhai ,

Election fever ka aasar dhik raha hai Very Happy

I think in a bear market the BD targets are easier to achieve than the BO targets because of the countertrend nature of the momentum. So if we really achieve the BO target my call is bear market is over.

For the time being lets retrace some of the upmove and start the journey again.

Anshuman
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swaroopbn
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Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 39

Post: #5   PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I always keep to my TA simple because I am very poor in understanding complex technical stuffs Very Happy

I just tried my hand on drawing the current channel (s) using recent trendlines.

The current set up shows, NF's fall is/will be arrested @ 3300. If it breaks 3300 it may go till 3240 and serious shorts will be created in the system only below that... imho Rolling Eyes

As the expiry (30th April 2009) is nearing, NF sud trade in the range 3300-3500 with a +ve bias.

Cheers
SW
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amitrajangulati
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Joined: 27 Jan 2009
Posts: 56

Post: #6   PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 12:47 pm    Post subject: Entry & Exit points Reply with quote

Swaroop sir,

Awaiting your guidance on how to calculate entry & exit points for intraday trading Smile

Thanks & regards,
Amit
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swaroopbn
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Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 39

Post: #7   PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amit Sir,

Not an issue. We can discuss any time.

However, DT is a risky business and requires full attention during trading hours. One should evaluate his risk appetite before he jumps into DT.

Swing/Positional trading is better and gives least heart breaks if done with discipline Idea.

For an example - the recent swing Buy call generated @ 3300 (based on my posts below) levels have yielded 200 pts till date and still good to go for the final tgt 3580.

Regards,
SW
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swaroopbn
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Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 39

Post: #8   PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello - It's time to update the diary with recent chart formations Rolling Eyes.

Please refer the Pic below. There is an inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern is 60 Min NF chart and the BO has already happened. The tgt is around 3600.

Are we going to achieve these levels before expiry?

My bet - we should achieve our positional tgt of 3580 on Monday. Coincidentally the Tgt is also hitting the upper rising trend line (pls refer the Posts/Pics below for current Channel).

Hardly anyone beleived that 3500 will come again in this series. Talks were ripe for the rally (or bear mkt retracement Wink) being exhausted and a dip correction.

Markets again proved to be supreme above all the analysis.

Cheers,
SW
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