iCharts Discussions

[marne.vivek]

The 40-Year Cycle of Cultural Change

The U.S. is due for another cultural revolution, led by the younger generations, perhaps including a fifth Great Awakening.

There seems to be a 40-year cycle of cultural change in American society. The classic exploration of generational types and cycles, The Fourth Turning, identified a four-generational, 80-year cycle of profound crisis and transformation:

1781 - end of the Revolution and establishment of the nation
1861 - Civil War
1941 - Global war and end of the Depression
2021 - end of the Savior State and debt-based "prosperity," Peak Everything and geopolitical conflict over resources

Have a look at the file; its from a blog on investment

Regards,
Vivek

[vinay28]

I am surprised because nations generally have a 51-60 year cycle but worth noting.

[shekharinvest]

And what is happening to India!

Kf Winter - As always winter will come. The most painful period as bubbles burst causing economic upheavals and hardship. Fear and distrust force reduced lending activity despite lower interest rates. Quality debt is back in vogue. The process of unwinding of debt before another cycle starts can take from a few years to decades depending on the degree. The U.S. deflation from 1929-1949 took 15 years for debt, but stock markets bottomed in 1934, i.e. in 4 years. However a grand super cycle occurs when a 5 wave rally of one larger degree occurs. This means after 3 consecutive Kf waves in a country it completes a larger degree 5 wave rise lasting 210 years and will correct/consolidate for a longer period. In the U.S. 1720-1784 is shown as the Grand-Supercycle degree wave 2 by Robert Prechter in his book "Prechter's Perspective". That was 50-60 years of depression/consolidation. Since then US has been in a Grand supercycle degree wave 3 till year 2000. Wave 4 could potentially be as large in time. But for countries like India that are in their first Kf cycle since independence and things are not so bad. Yes I think India will see its own Kf winter, i.e. deflation or depression, however after 2-3 years once it completes a supercycle degree wave 2 correction, a larger degree supercycle wave 3 bull market lasting 70 years can emerge. This is when decoupling will happen for India and maybe China. The recent 2010 Indian budget has started talking about reducing the fiscal deficit and that is a deflationary trend signal. How debt gets reduced may vary from cycle to cycle. Bubbles can be pricked internally through tightening or externally through events not in our control.


N.B.: Taken from a blog and post is dated Feb. 2010

[vinay28]

Thank you Shekhar. However, I still believe it is a 50-60 year cycle. But, the recent support by youngsters to Anna's campaign shows that cultural change has set in India.

Also, those who are old enough to have children in their teens (and older) would have surely noticed that they don't listen to elders anymore. Not merely as a usual generation gap but much more, even to the extent of repeating mistakes that we made and trying to reinvent the wheel. Something that we did not do because we listened to our elders and learnt from their mistakes thereby, at least, not repeating the same mistakes.

Nor do elders have time to pass on their vital experience, a very important aspect that actually began as story telling around evening fire thousands of years ago.

I have started believing over the years that evolution is is reverse gear.This year it has shown and it will continue to show the beginning of a major wave of change for indian youth, for better or worse.