iCharts Discussions

[rk_a2003]

I am recollecting the sub prime crisis....when it came up and widely discusseed it was brushed away as managable and some markets including India even rallied away......We were well aware of what happened later.

Don't expect more than 10-15% rally from the bottom.

[ajayhkaul]

[psalm]

Cant wait to start shorting......hmn...yummy..... ....anyway, we'll get that chance in another 10 sessions, I guess.....

[pkholla]

rka2003 is 100% right. In addition to his points, we have forgotten the main villain/ comedian Greece. Their former PM, Papademos himself said a few days earlier that no way out for Greece except to default and exit Euro. Then what? Domino effect? Our bears in time honored way are taking the market turkey up for fattening and will then use the pre-opening route to max bucks while the rest (us) pick a few crumbs during 0915-1530!!! Time to strictly trade intra day in Nifty and exit at 1530 with zero open interest. Regards Prakash Holla

[singh.ravee]

[pkholla]

ravee.singhji: I burnt my pocket badly in early July 2011 by staying in July 5100 put because everyone was talking of market crashing to 4800. What happened? Mkt was taken up 700 points then hammered in August by pros! Better to avoid getting burned than to apply Burnol afterwards. That is why nowadays I close positions at 330PM Regards Prakash Holla

[misscrore]

[vinay28]

Greece will default soon but emerging market is the lesser ugly baby.

[ajayhkaul]

misscrore, singh.ravee , pkholla .... I look forward to your insights to the market .....

and while on the subject triggered by misscrore and ravee , consider this as a viewpoint:


I don't have a clue...

"I don't have a clue which way the market is going, nor do I care.

One of the best revelations a new trader can get is that you don't need to know which way the market is going to move.

When I say the market "should" continue to trend to this major support or resistance it is because I actually don't have a clue.

Trading is best done whilst knowing you are completely clueless. In that way, you can't be wrong, and pride and emotional attachment are not an issue. For those of you that have traded live money for over a month you know that false pride and emotional attachment is the killer of good trading. Can you see how admitting you don't know the future is liberating?

Can you imagine how all those CNN analysts and mutual fund managers felt when the market first started to crash and they said the worst was over, but it wasn't? Can you imagine how those will feel in this current up move who say the market will recover and the others who say it won't? One group is wrong and will eat their words. It's better to just let price lead and to follow it with a proven trend trading system.

It is totally possible to trade without knowing what's going to happen. In fact, I think it's the only way ........... The reason it is possible is by trading with only a statistical edge and proper money management, not trading on hunches, tips or what you "think" the market will do.

...AND the psychological mentorship aspect of "boring" statements of reinforcement such as:

• I don't know the future and I don't care.
• Don't move your stops or add to a losing trade.
• Stay patient with your winners and don't cash out early.
• Do add on trades when the system says to, if you don't you won't maximize the trend.
• All trends have some sideways or pull back movements.
• Don't worry sideways markets can only last so long, at some point a new trend will emerge and when it does be sure to follow the system and act.
• Small losses are part of an overall winning system, stay patient.

And so on....

The bottom line is that it's ok to not have a clue about which way the market is going, but it's not ok to not have a clue about trading and investing.

[psalm]

[rk_a2003]

A mere fundamental view blocks you from seeing the swings and movements in market caused by technical factors. A mere technical view may make you short sighted and cause failure to predict the possible change in the direction of the market.

It was said Fundamentals decide in long term and Fundamentals prevail….True…..It was also said all the fundamental factors were reflected in the price action thus technicals reflect everything…..It is also true up to some extent. But technicals may not reflect all the possible moves that will be influenced by fundamental dynamics …they may recognize them only with some time lag….

It’s always better to have a Fundamental understanding and act on Technical Analysis which may give your sword double edge. Never counter pose them….. Have the best of both the worlds. One may observe that I am a student of this School…….

[vinay28]

guys I am suffering from philosophy overload!

[psalm]

[rk_a2003]

[vinay28]

Good Old Days of Indian Equity Market – Part 2

(I am calling this as part 2 since I am treating my post of 10th Jan on sentiments of early Indian brokers/traders under this thread as part 1.)

A Tribute to a Lost Trade

Long, long ago, may be thousands of years ago, the Indian culture had devised a system to ensure survival for all. To the little extent that I know, the system offered to divide communities by allocating different trades so that everyone earned bread depending upon time, period, seasons, festivals, death, etc. These trades were, to name a few, cobblers, goldsmith, pandits, masons, potters, weavers, warriors, fishermen, teachers, etc. etc. Many of these ancient trades are dying or are dead after the industrial and, more importantly, the relatively recent electronic or digital revolution. Also, everyone is trying/doing everything in a free world.

One such trade, which developed relatively recently i.e. about 100 years ago, was jobbing. It came to India from England, US, etc. as BSE started operations. Jobbers worked for brokers and carried out the orders. The shares were bought by one jobber from one or more other jobbers. The exchange was purely “in person”. Some of you may have seen them in action on NYSE on TV.

Jobbing was not everyone’s cup of tea. Like a good marketing guy, a jobber needed to have a friendly face and eyes, a good inter-personal relationship, an ability to read the expression and body language of the other jobber and a shrewd ability to strike a good price. One of my friends was such a brilliant jobber that if one placed an order, say, to buy 1000 RIL, he would actually buy 3000 and sell 2000 in the process to get the best price. His broker used to be amazed at his abilities.

In the still older BSE exchange, a single story building, there was a platform on which stood a column. There were long stickers hanging from it like the leather belt used by a barber to sharpen his razor in old days. The guy who held a sticker for, say, TISCO, was its jobber. You would then go to him for the trade. Many of today's big guys in market were jobbers then. The new exchange had a “ring” (a hall) instead with different “counters’ for different scrips and brokers.

The jobbers must have been walking a few KMs in the ring everyday as they had to go to different “counters” during the 4-5 hour period. Imagine the lung power required to continue to talk (and many times shout) above the din of the ring. I once went to the ring as a visitor on a day when the market suddenly turned bad. I saw an old trader, may be 70, rushing from jobber to jobber trying to sell his shares in panic even as froth was coming from his mouth. I felt sick and also a pity.

Come online trading platform and the conventional jobber died a horrible death overnight. Today we get to see instant multiple quotes on ODIN, the volume is much more and we can make an easier trade because spread is lesser. Jobbers still exist today but in different garbs e.g. they will place a buy order at a lower price and a sell order at a higher price, close to each other, mind you. Sometimes brokers act as jobbers using stock holding and cash holding of their HNI customers. Even entering a smaller “display” quantity than the actual order quantity is like jobbing. Another form of modern jobbing is arbitrage. But all this is for oneself and mostly not for customers as in old days.

May be online platform is good for the market but we don’t get to read the eyes and body language of the other guy and that interpersonal exchange is gone. We now “talk” only on machine.

Here’s a toast to that lost trade and that rare guy in the “ring”!