iCharts Discussions

[rainbow]

ha ha nice one vinay. OTOH, i am not as AWOL as is made out to be. @uncannybal and i meet up usually on saturdays. for lunch. and er.... beverages. hic.

Ajay, need to internalise the stuff you have written about yet, to start contributing, but will make an attempt.

truth be told, rather missed the intellectual mas...... ion that happens in these forums.

am looking at around feb when i will make a 'comeback' here. fervently hope it does not turn out like ajit agarkar's

off for now. *poof*

[rk_a2003]

*Recent permission of GOI for Foreign individuals and institutes to directly invest in Indian equity Market.

* It was influenced by RBI to arrest the dangerous slide of the Rupee .It took some other measures too to arrest Rupee slide… like asking banks to purchase Rupees.

*It also send feelers that the rate hike regime came to an end and it may start reversing soon.

* All in all it seems RBI and MOF are playing a major role in short term.

* Now FII’s too change their short term tactics accordingly…They too started deploying funds in to India with a short term objective.

*Relative strength of the rupee in comparison to Dollar index gain announces the FII’s short term stand.

* Finally from the above it appears Market may go up for short term… For now it appears to be doing the same.

* The million dollar question is… Now results season kicking in…which are expected to be weak…Is that already factored in?! What if there are any surprises either bad or good?! Do they really exist?!

[psalm]

Other recent steps to boost inflows include encouraging more deposits by non-resident Indians with higher interest rates, relaxing accounting rules for foreign exchange loans and relaxing foreign limits on government bonds.

[rk_a2003]

[psalm]

Excellent Job....You people are doing an exceptional job.....Keep it up...

[vinay28]

rainbow, ajit agarkar is himself advising fast bowlers to concentrate on batting after his own bitter experience. Good lesson for traders.....always be prepared to change.

[vinay28]

Ajay/RK/Sam/Rainbow/Others

Here are a couple of points for you to brood upon. Pardon me for a lengthy post.

First

Long before TA was known in India, Indian traders (predominantly Gujaratis) used to note down index and stock prices every few minutes in their notebook, not necessarily any fixed intervals. They had started doing it since 1930s. They had developed a model in their head from years of experience and were able to judge likely market and stock movement based on this data and data from previous days, which was noted and preserved in their notebook for months.

Every time a new guy came into market (generally a trader's or broker's son or relative, etc.), this is what he was asked to do for months and then study it. He was not allowed to trade unless, through discussions, seniors were sure that he had gained some knowledge and the sense of market.

This has continued even now. In fact, in 88-89, when I used to frequent my broker friend's office, Ramdeo Agarwal used to sit next to me and do the same thing (but not me because I never intended to be trader then ). He had got married recently then and he told me that, according to their tradition, he could not go back to his home town Indore (I think), unless he started making money. You know where he has reached today (and where I am ).

Those traders had developed many sentiments based on their experience. Some of them are standard measures today e.g. today’s OHLC as compared to yesterday’s, etc. But one particular one was OHLC on the first day of a week, month and year. They believed that first day’s data indicated the likely trend for the week, month and the year.

On 2nd Jan 2012 (first day of a week, month and year), nifty closed above previous day’s close (last day of 2011). The first week has already closed positive and let’s hope that jan also closes positive. Note that it is enough for jan to close above previous month’s close even though it may be below first week’s close as per this sentiment.

Second

The first day of 2000 closed above last day of 1999. History normally repeats every 12 years. The only difference is, in 2012, low on 2nd jan was below low of 30th dec unlike in 2000 when first day’s low was also above the low of end dec 1999.

That time nifty went 45% above previous low of 99 in 3-4 months. Will we have a pre-budget rally, now that all (hopefully) bad news is out?

[ajayhkaul]

Great 'market mastermind' inputs.

To summarize : (Vinay pls correct if my interpretation is off)

1...If New Year Jan First day trade closes higher than the last trade of December prev year , expect bullishness for January and the year.
As on date , it is looking bullish since the first week ended higher also.

2...We have 12 year cycles possibly playing out this year too. Last was in 2000.

3...Gujarati traders had/have an OHLC watching system to monitor the stocks
like reading the tape. (Any idea how it worked?)

4.. Vinay just missed becoming like or better than Ramdev AGARWAL. BUT VINAY IS BAAACK!

[vinay28]

Point 1 - it applies for any week or month also but weekly trend is apararently less important than monthly

Point 2 - possible. This theory of mine has worked OK even with world cup soccar winners. If you can, please find out whether such a thing happened in any year after 2000.

Point 3 - somebody started a thread a few months ago for a strategy based on similar lines i.e. on monday's data as compared to friday's one. I can't find it. I will try to gather data on that and will post it if successful.

Point 4 - WRONG in that not "just" missed. I can't even dare to dream of making a few crores, leave aside thousands of crores.

By the way, in my journey, I have been fortunate to see many a great men in action e.g. I have had tea with harshad mehta at a footpath stall diagonally opposite BSE when he was no body. In 3 years he was the KING and then........

[ajayhkaul]

Dream away Vinay ! If you can imagine it , you will have it !

By the way, in my journey, I have been fortunate to see many a great men in action e.g. I have had tea with harshad mehta at a footpath stall diagonally opposite BSE when he was no body. In 3 years he was the KING and then........

Dust to dust , ashes to ashes , footpath to .....

The pursuit of money is an absurd quest since one cannot take it with him. But the rules to get the money are very very serious !

But I am digressing .....

[psalm]

Amazing stories....Amazing journeys......


"The Market Mastermind" Rocks!!!!!!

[ajayhkaul]

Vinay , there are also these 'rules' :

1...SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY :

One, that there is remarkable pattern historically that many major stock markets show very strong performance from November through April, and quite often, quite weak performance from May through October (hence the `sell in May and go away' oft discussed notion).

"Any investor that stuck to this calendar investing pattern would dramatically boost his returns.

2... January 5-day rule:( ref Vinays post)

And two, when the Market rises after the first 5 trading days of a new year, the market has a pretty good annual performance. In fact, the Almanac claims the success rate has been just under 87% since 1950.

5-day rule as well as the `January month' rule showed that, for a number of markets, the January factors seemed to be quite powerful, albeit less than I had believed, and not enough to dismiss the superior importance of fundamental analysis."

The 5-day rule doesn't apply if the indices head lower. And 2011 was the sixth time that the rule didn't work despite a positive start.

The bulls have an excellent chance to hold their gains . The indices in Asia were mostly higher following Chinese rumors that easing will come (soon) to support the stock market. Chinese stocks have been dogs for the past few years, but those stocks can be powerful trading tools in the short term.

In addition to the positive news from Asia, the market is unlikely to have a big move ahead of earnings - investors will likely wait until earnings are announced. I also think investors will focus more on Financial stocks earnings

[vinay28]

ajay, the first one may be because of holidays.

as far as the second rule is concerned, do you mean "......when the Market rises after the first 5 trading days of a new year....." or "....when the Market continues to rise after the first 5 trading days of a new year"?

jan 2000 closed lower than first week but above 1999 end. It then still went up till march.

[ajayhkaul]

Sell in May..... is initially due to the summer break ,but 'reading the mind of the market' , is also because by this time the 'ducks' are lured in and cooked during the ensuing months till , say , november . Markets get choppy and the retail sector is left holding the stocks in the quest of 'break-even'!

The second is a corollary to your input , I think . After the first five days of Jan if the market rises , it is likely to give good annualised returns . This I read as big players taking up positions and driving up the markets for specific sectors and as the earnings of LAST QUARTER (OND, prev year) play out , the runup is sustained and you will see some leadership emerging in specific sectors.

Since this is the first time we are discussing this , we will watch and document in this thread as to how it played out .

I am writing my gujarati notebook! as mentioned in your post

[rk_a2003]