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vinay28
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Post: #196  Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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A case for Gold and Silver --- how about silver @ $100+?
Sorry Ajay, I didn't find time to respond to your above thread although I was eager to when I first read it. Let me explain in my "way". 
1870 was about 240 years ago. Jupiter takes appx. 12 years to complete one revolution around the sun while saturn takes appx. 30 years. These two are the most important planets as far as Indian astrology is concerned. The LCM of these two periods is appx. 60 years and hence they say that a man is reborn when he completes 60 since his horoscope at 60 is almost same as that when he was born. Since other inner planets such as mercury (88 days), venus (225 days) and mars (687 days) take much lower period (even Rahu and Ketu take about 18 months), they will be again at their position in the horoscope as at birth any time during the 60th/61st year since 60 years would be an integral multiple of their rotational periods.
What is interesting is that Uranus and Pluto take 84 and 248 years to complete their rotation. Therefore, 240 years, being 4 times 60, is large enough period to be more accurate than 60 year period. Hence, one can say that many countries (and hence their status, whether political or economical or social or otherwise) are at a similar situation as that 240 years ago, irrespective of whether they were independent then or not.
All that is necessary then, is to find out from history about overall situation in India and rest of the world around 1870 and take some cue from that, appropriately interpreted on today's context. I am not able to find out but I would like to wager a bet that saturn was in libra then too. You will appreciate that gold and silver price is just one of the many results (and of much leser significance) of those situations.
Enough food for thought? |
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vinay28
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vinay28
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| Post: #198 Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| I goofed horribly. 1870 was 142 years ago and not 240. This means that none of major planets (except probably jupiter) are in the same zodiac presently as in 1870. Sincere apologies. |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #199 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:06 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | *Recent permission of GOI for Foreign individuals and institutes to directly invest in Indian equity Market.
* It was influenced by RBI to arrest the dangerous slide of the Rupee .It took some other measures too to arrest Rupee slide… like asking banks to purchase Rupees.
*It also send feelers that the rate hike regime came to an end and it may start reversing soon.
* All in all it seems RBI and MOF are playing a major role in short term.
* Now FII’s too change their short term tactics accordingly…They too started deploying funds in to India with a short term objective.
*Relative strength of the rupee in comparison to Dollar index gain announces the FII’s short term stand.
* Finally from the above it appears Market may go up for short term… For now it appears to be doing the same.
* The million dollar question is… Now results season kicking in…which are expected to be weak…Is that already factored in?! What if there are any surprises either bad or good?! Do they really exist?! |
Above observations posted by me on 10th Jan when Nifty was around 4750.Infact these are the summarization of the observations posted by Ajay,Vinay,Sam and others though posted by me.
Before that Market Master Mind was able to read the possibility of reversal (based on the fundamental factors) from the recent lows of 4550 and also advised for bottom fishing.
Every method will have its own strength and weakness. Bank on its strength leave its weakness.
A special Thanks to Big Picture Guy Ajay.
Fantastic Job Market Master Mind  Kudos Ajay! ( you are the founder ) |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #200 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:11 am Post subject: |
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Thanks RK ........and do keep posting your vital inputs.
Most importantly I hope all the readers made good money and are rolling in cash ( and gold / silver) !
Cheers !  |
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psalm
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| Post: #201 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:21 am Post subject: |
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| Good one Ajay.... ...It was a pretty brave call...I feel that way....Nice contributions from RK and Vinay....Guys, you are doing a fantastic job...thanks... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #202 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:22 am Post subject: |
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now what did I do?  |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #203 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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Venezuela has the 15th-largest holdings of Gold in the world, according to the World Gold Council, held 211 tons of its 365 tons of gold reserves in U.S., European and Canadian banks as of August.
In the past two months It has repatriated major percentage of gold reserves which were held with the Bank of England, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barclays Plc and Standard Chartered Plc.
Western rulers say Chavez is a mad man.But it seems he can foresee the critical issues and act accordingly.
Some of the above banks are sitting on huge shorts in Gold and Silver. In case all the buyers who are long on paper demands for a physical delivery of gold these banks can be stripped off. If that day arrives Gold and Silver may jump up 20 % in a day. There was a saying… don’t sell anything which you doesn’t own. Some of these banks exactly did opposite.
That’s the reason for Chavez's withdrawal of his country’s reserve gold from these banks.
China too may follow it already started buying real assets with its Dollar reserve knowing very well the hollowness of dollar strength.
India entered in to an agreement with Iran for paying gold for Oil imports for which US took serious objection. Is it the beginning of the end of the dollar hegemony?
Why the western banks are shorting gold… Hoping to continue the dominance of the $.
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”
They should have remembered the famous words of their 16th President. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #204 Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”
They should have remembered the famous words of their 16th President.
Was it really their 16th president who said this? |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #205 Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:18 am Post subject: |
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Western rulers say Chavez is a mad man.But it seems he can foresee the critical issues and act accordingly.
More countries will demand physical delivery of their gold
If that day arrives Gold and Silver may jump up 20 % in a day.
there is going to be the greatest wealth transfer of our lifetimes ! |
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vinay28
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| Post: #206 Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| the doom began in all markets and the world in general when f&o started. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #207 Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:48 am Post subject: |
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| 70% of the money coming into India is from outside of US. Not just europe and asia &japan but as a new......latin america |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #208 Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:33 am Post subject: Re: MARKET BOTTOM |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Re Posting the following extracts as per the request of this thread founder.
| rk_a2003 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | It was said that no one can catch a bottom ( In fact technically speaking at least one person can ,someone should be there at the bottom )
There is a co relation to US$-INR Exchange rates and Index value .It’s not a Total and Direct relation But it could be used as a leading Indicator.
We all knew when FII’s with draw from equity market they sell in rupees and take away the Dollors and rupee depreciates.
See the table below how rupee is at its low when Market is at around bottom.
There are so many other factors that are influencing rupee depreciation. Increasing Crude Imports , Strengthening Dolor Etc.
However Investors may keep a note of this also for identifying market bottom. You may also compare the PE ratio of Nifty/Sensex also .
Compare the PE ratio of NIFTY/Sensex during march 2009 bottom ( Nifty PE was just above 12 , Sensex PE was just above 9), to catch a bottom. Don’t go by absolute value of Index go by PE ratio.
What happened during 2008-09 crash?. Sensex hit bottom of 8891 when INR depreciated by around 22% to 51.67.
Can we anticipate similar action this time ? Sensex/Nifty to reach bottom when USD/INR=52 – 54 (1.20*45).
Date $/INR Sensex
03-Aug-08 42.19 14656
08-Sep-08 45.87 14483
06-Oct-08 48.44 12526
27-Oct-08 49.41 8701
01-Dec-08 49.54 9092
02-Mar-09 51.67 8891
15-Jun-09 48.06 15237
12-Oct-09 46.22 16642
08-Nov-10 44.98 21004
11-Jul-11 44.47 18858
25-Sep-11 49.07 16162
But, Don't use it for Timing, only use it to Identify Bottomed out range and can be used for Investing.
Regards
RK |
Now US$-INR exchange rate touched 53+ and hovering around 52 .It might have coincided with the withdrawal of funds by FII’s.Experts shouting that Indian rupee may see even 56-58 levels. Horrible…In not too far away times i.e. in 1980 US $ INR exchange rate was 7.887. Can you believe it? Our country expanded in to huge market compared to 1980’s, Human resources flourished like any thing ,GDP increased multifold for which there are very few comparisons in the world. Then why is this devaluation?
The reason – spineless Indian political class. It has no will to take up the development .No courage for self rule. No commitment towards the people of this nation. It just obeying and following the orders issued by so called Developed Nations. They submitted them selves to the authority of the western world. They even don’t have guts to bargain like China. Thought less RBI, Spine less MOF, Will less PMO .What more we can expect?
Still keeping in view the inherent strength of Indian Economy Rupee can not sustain at these levels for longer time. I can not give an exact time frame but with in a year or so it has to come down around 40.
Keep in mind… Equity market fall coupled with rupee devaluation may turn Indian Shares so attractive that at some point fresh foreign funds may rush in to India like a flood. The point just before that could be the bottom for our Markets. I can explain it in theory but please don’t ask me to pin point that actual point of time. Regarding which no one will be aware of. For sure It’s a natural dynamics and it has to happen. |
Indian rupee did reached 54 and now came down.When it was around 54 Equity market appears to be bottomed out at least for intermediate term.
Some one who took long positions at that level are in good profit now at least by 10 % or may be more in case they took positions in beaten down and fundamentally strong scrips.Now they can not get in to loss if they follow a reasonable SL setting.
So.....It works guys. |
The above text was posted on Jan 11th. The first post in the chain was posted on September 25th.Find a comparative chart of Dollar-Rs & Sensex movement. Which were strikingly similar inversely.
Look at the chart below.
The rally continued for the fifth consecutive week on the back of strong foreign fund buying, and the sensex closed at 17,605 - its highest close in over three months. The rupee rally also continued with the closing at 48.70 again, a three-month high.
So far this year, net FII inflow through the stock market has crossed the $3-billion mark, while foreign fund buying in debt and equity markets together is above $6 billion till date, according to SEBI data.
You may observe that initially funds invested in debt market and slowly they increased flows in to equity market. It happened in an exact way that was indicated way before it happened as a possibility by Market Master Mind.
Folks This MMM is just creating wonders.
The Next big thing projected by MMM about to happen is Crash of Markets and money… The rise of precious metals and natural resources….. Remember…. up to some extent even equity too can be considered as a real asset …And it may retain its value limited to that factor ( Means minus liquidity).
Remember and stick to a basic fundamental. Lot of paper is being supplied, at least in near future the whole economic activity of the world has to rise to match that supply, if it is not happening then it is bound to collapse .
Big picture is saying that there is no way that the economic activity meet the target.Look at the Baltic Dry Index it's in deep diving mood.The world think tank that is driving the affairs is hoping for meeting the targets by injecting Steroids.What is going to happen a steroid user?...You know.
How ever You decide who could be right and act accordingly.
The message is clear get out at appropriate time from wrong place and get in to a right place.
When is the right time.... To decide that bank on TA. 
How ever M3 will keep updating the ever changing dynamics of the Fundamental picture. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #209 Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:14 am Post subject: |
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| rupee making double top? |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #210 Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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RK .... Thanks for the super and timely update. Truly M3( great code, RK) material.
RK/Vinay also consider these :
1... is it a rupee double top ? are we up from a sensex/nifty double bottom?
If you look carefully , we are completing larger W's on the Nifty charts eg the one with the apex of w at 4800 is done , and now approaching a larger W with 5400 approx apex.
2... the 8 year monthly chart of nifty-- where to me it looked as if Jan 2012 has put a solid bottom of the handle ( cup and handle).
3... The correlation of QE 1 , 2 , and the current move with Nifty moves. Nifty has always fallen when the QE was stopped. QE obviously affects the rupee.
And in RKs golden words re the fiat currency......> Remember and stick to a basic fundamental. Lot of paper is being supplied, at least in near future the whole economic activity of the world has to rise to match that supply, if it is not happening then it is bound to collapse .
Shortly I will post why economic activity may not rise ...one word as a hint : DEMOGRAPHY . This is the key why India with its large population may be able to weather the storm better than the rest of the world.
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