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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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Post: #226  Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Interesting stuff ...but my favorite is the emotion/price depiction ...the best way,albeit subjective, to read where we are in the cycle |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #227 Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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are we not close to new paradigm?  |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #228 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:29 am Post subject: |
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No way , Vinay .....the peak is far off.
Remember public participation is yet to come in....
and many classical techies have not even entered the market since they are waiting for certain textbook signals.
Also bearish guys are just turning bullish and to hold them , the market has to continue rising. The toughest of skeptics has to turn ..
Last edited by ajayhkaul on Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total |
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sonila
Brown Belt
Joined: 04 Jun 2009
Posts: 1786
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| Post: #229 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| Bearish guys..... Like ..... Sam...... |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #230 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:35 am Post subject: |
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| Sam is no more Bearish Sonila! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #231 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| may be ajay. but this time it is not public against FIIs. It's FIIs against FIIs. small fish, big fish, that's all. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #232 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:54 am Post subject: |
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Ajay is a fundamental Bear on long term and a Bull for time being for the same fundamental reasons and so am I.
Am I right Ajay! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #233 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:17 pm Post subject: Market |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | Sam is no more Bearish Sonila! |
Sam is neutral now....Neither bullish nor bearish.......sitting idle...with nothing to do......  ...
By the way, this buying (started from 1st Jan 2012) reminds me of the last leg of rally we had from 31st August 2010 to 5th of November 2010. We have witnessed the brutal power of liquidity at that time. The market has been going up and up dismissing the over-bought conditions. It could happen this time. The market could go up by another 300 or 400 points from here or may be even more before another sell off. For a trader, there is still chance for a 300 or 400 point trade. I expect the market to correct a bit if it reaches 5450-5500. It could correct to around 5300 again. If that happen, that will be a good time to enter the market. Anyway, we may never get a buying chance again if we wait, or we may never reach 5400....anything is possible....Let's see how the market goes.
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #234 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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I expect dow to go to 13500. That's about 7% above present value. If we move up like that, we may have 5700, which a few are talking about. +WW on EOD daily chart already shows a possibility of 5500. BUT to ME, time is now the sole governing factor. I will watch each day of next week carefully. Asuming it continues to go up then I will be inclined to take counter trade on feb 10. If in doubt, pl see my earlier post somewhere, about feb 3 to 7.
I posted it on 4th feb around noon. Now have a look at this, which I found just now
http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/New-Highs-But-3-Peaks-Top-Looms |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #235 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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"We have witnessed the brutal power of liquidity at that time. The market has been going up and up dismissing the over-bought conditions. It could happen this time."
Thats called hitting the Bulls Eye Sam! ( Never mind for using Bull word even you said that you are Neutral  ).
How ever if We look at the 8 years Nifty chart Marked with QE infusions We may observe that Market displayed more bullishness for a longer time period during QE-I compared to QE-II.
This was the 3rd dose of Steroids from Europe. How long this effect can sustain .... Let us ...Wait and see.
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #236 Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | "We have witnessed the brutal power of liquidity at that time. The market has been going up and up dismissing the over-bought conditions. It could happen this time."
Thats called hitting the Bulls Eye Sam! [color=green]( Never mind for using Bull word even you said that you are Neutral ).
How ever if We look at the 8 years Nifty chart Marked with QE infusions We may observe that Market displayed more bullishness for a longer time period during QE-I compared to QE-II.
This was the 3rd dose of Steroids from Europe. How long this effect can sustain .... Let us ...Wait and see.
[/color] |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #237 Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:51 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Ajay is a fundamental Bear on long term and a Bull for time being for the same fundamental reasons and so am I.
Am I right Ajay! |
Bingo ..RK ! |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #238 Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:57 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | may be ajay. but this time it is not public against FIIs. It's FIIs against FIIs. small fish, big fish, that's all. |
How can public ever be against FII? Public does not have the fire power to do that. However , public will be left holding the baby when distribution begins or by stock rotation.
What is public doing currently ?....1.. disbelief as in 'wait it will crash today' or 2...hoping that all the dud stocks they hold will suddenly come to life and rocket to moon 3...buying magazines on stocks to read up before committing cash etc..
Yes it is at FII level right now (see emotion chart) |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #239 Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:02 am Post subject: Re: Market |
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| psalm wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | Sam is no more Bearish Sonila! |
Sam is neutral now....Neither bullish nor bearish.......sitting idle...with nothing to do...... ...
By the way, this buying (started from 1st Jan 2012) reminds me of the last leg of rally we had from 31st August 2010 to 5th of November 2010. We have witnessed the brutal power of liquidity at that time. The market has been going up and up dismissing the over-bought conditions. It could happen this time. The market could go up by another 300 or 400 points from here or may be even more before another sell off. For a trader, there is still chance for a 300 or 400 point trade. I expect the market to correct a bit if it reaches 5450-5500. It could correct to around 5300 again. If that happen, that will be a good time to enter the market. Anyway, we may never get a buying chance again if we wait, or we may never reach 5400....anything is possible....Let's see how the market goes.
Regards,
Sam |
Thats classical TA ...ie buy on the first correction/bear trap. Most guys will wish they had entered earlier as each passing day they are dismayed. For their sake , hopefully there will be a retrace.
But as RK will sing ....
'fortune favored the brave one
when he bottom fished at 4531...'' |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #240 Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | No way , Vinay .....the peak is far off.
Remember public participation is yet to come in....
and many classical techies have not even entered the market since they are waiting for certain textbook signals.
Also bearish guys are just turning bullish and to hold them , the market has to continue rising. The toughest of skeptics has to turn .. |
there she goes again ...5375 NS ! |
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