iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

CLSA had been buying this stock for some time and it is not a coincidence that they gave a OUTPERFORM call the day before results. So they (and probably Tata Capital) know more than what market knows.

[ajayhkaul]

RK there can be a number of reasons including what Vinay says.
Insiders know more and we trade on 'noise' .

If Your bet was based on previous loss results reactions , it was a high probability bet which did not work in this instance and the same applies to all such high probability co-relations.

The bullishness can also induce long term funds to pick up the stock at lower prices as the previous result may be a one off event( we need to see why they had that loss on their P/L statement, is it systemic or just a bad quarter)

[vinay28]

it was one-off like situation. they expect Uk operations to do well in next 2 quarters and we know that they are always forward looking and buy for long term

[rk_a2003]

Thanks Vinay & Ajay

I am getting a feeling that Index heavy weights are being provided down side capping. Reliance announced bad result solid support offered through Buy back. Tata steel announced losses and went up huge throwing an explanation that future earnings are going to be good.DLF not going very much down even after not so encouraging result. Banks are hiding their losses behind tweaked norms. Airtel too not going down after disappointing result and getting outperformer rating with buy recommendations.

This list can go on…and ….on .The point is market is ignoring or discounting all the bad news.

On the other hand Fundamentals are going worse. GDP’s are coming down. No pick up in core economic activity .BDI still deep diving, trying hard to explore new depths.

All in all it seems the supplied paper is working hard to spike up all the markets. No fundamentals and market is showing enormous resilience. So what’s up? …Where are we heading?! At least for short term it appears to have Upside potential. After a correction (if any) it may bounce up vehemently.

And when all of us are convinced with market staying at higher levels it may crash. I am really really in great discomfort with the market moves though I am still riding my longs with huge profits (still I am applying TSL’s.) And having no short positions.

Guys! Be alert.

By the way rupee is on continuous slide for the past 3 days eventhough Dollar index was also sliding…Means display of weakness. Are FII’s selling rupees in advance? If it is so a short term correction is on cards.

[psalm]

[vinay28]

I am still riding my longs with huge profits..

kaun banega karodpati?

don't forget that ECB has announced second tranch of QE on 29th feb

[ajayhkaul]

If there is liquidity , some asset class must get to bubble situation.

Right now it seems to be the stocks

ECB is printing , RBI is holding the interest rates and there can be a downward revision of rates

Reforms coming up?

IPOs , PSU Disinvestment ?

Cooking the books allowed by the government is same as providing liquidity and spate of 'good' results even though NPAs are higher -- all point to pulling in the ducks who will invest on market NOISE

Take one day at a time , guys . And shun greed /protect profits

And enjoy the ride ! ( why discomfort RK ? If it makes you nervous , cash out or tighten SL and catch your breath OR reduce your positions to comfort levels)

Psalm ....(For the 800 odd point rise we had the ECB catalyst). we need a catalyst for the breakdown.

Keep your eyes peeled for that !

[rk_a2003]

"why discomfort RK ? If it makes you nervous , cash out or tighten SL and catch your breath OR reduce your positions to comfort levels"

It’s not nervousness Ajay otherwise I would have exited my positions.

I know market can stay irrational for a longer time than we can imagine. My discomfort is because of the growing gulf between fundamentals and the market.

We know the ground reality and have to move with the irrationality that’s where the discomfort lies.Market can be irrational but how can be a human being?!

However let us see what lies ahead in the future. Now I took up technical litmus test offered by Mr. Ramesh raja for validation; whether Nifty can close above 5712 convincingly or not?.

Till that time it could be a splash in the pan.

Other wise start of a new bull market.

[ajayhkaul]

whether Nifty can close above 5712 convincingly or not?.

Till that time it could be a splash in the pan.

Other wise start of a new bull market.

RK ......800 points rise in about six weeks of trading is a'splash in the pan'?

I am having a great time/learning just reading the 'psychological' changes that are occurring to members of various threads as the market rises. That why we must respect the market ...it can make monkeys out of men!

I am sure that most will be convinced shortly that it is a bull market with random targets and the basic facts will be forgotten ie FUNDAMENTALS DRIVE THE TECHNICALS AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND.

I'm lovin' it !

[vinay28]

I am having a great time/learning just reading the 'psychological' changes that are occurring to members of various threads as the market rises.

Icharts forum is NOT a Freudian couch Dr. Ajay!

[rk_a2003]

True! last time also after subprime collapse there was no qualitative change in fundamental factors ajay! then how come a rally touching prior highs.Thats sheer irrational.( it was termed as a bull market by many)

Fundamentals prevail but only on longer term. Liquidity power and direction is only reflected in technicals not in fundamentals.Fundamental analysis can sense and foresee issues well in advance.

But to measure the quantitative effects we need to take the help of TA.

By the way I am using Bull and Bear Markets in not so strict formulation.

Before we move further it's better to define those terms.

[vinay28]

rk, do you work for a pharma company?

[rk_a2003]

[pkholla]

[vinay28]

haha, holla. you fell into a trap, although an unintended one. I am very well aware of importance of SA. I was kidding with ajay. thanks