iCharts Discussions

[maddyprincess]

Market rally speaks volumes about retail return - Source ET


MUMBAI: Retail investors, who shied away from volatile equities in 2011, are making a come back to the bourses encouraged by robust foreign fund inflows, bullish bond market sentiment, easing inflation and rate cut hopes.

The improved sentiment is reflected in the combined daily average trading volume on NSE and BSE rising to 126.70 crore shares so far in February, which is the highest since November 2010, when the two premier stock exchanges had attracted a volume of 134.90 crore shares.

In January, combined daily average trading volume on NSE and BSE stood at 92.30 crore shares and in December it was 74.20 crore shares.

"The current rally is mostly driven by the improved sentiment over strong liquidity support from overseas investors," said Nitin Jain, head of capital markets (individual clients group), Edelweiss Securities. "We have already seen a growing retail participation in fixed-income instruments like bonds, which has a kind of spillover effect on equities," he said.

However, he sounded a note of caution about the sustainability of the momentum due to broader concerns such as the government's lack of policy initiative and the outcome of elections in Uttar Pradesh that is crucial for political stability.

According to brokers, shares of several small and mid-cap enterprises outperformed the broader market this month, offering a good opportunity for retail investors with short-term perspective to make quick gains.

The current rally has been broad-based, with shares of realty and infrastructure companies leading the gains.

BSE's Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices offered significantly higher returns of 28% and 29%, respectively, compared with Sensex's 20% since December 20, 2011.

Foreign investors pumped in more than 20,000 crore in Indian equities during this period, a significant improvement over their net outflows of 4,300 crore between January 1 and December 20, 2011.

"New demat accounts are being opened with us though it will take some more time for retail investors to actively participate in the stock market," said Divyesh Shah, CEO, Indiabulls Securities, which has been lately receiving inquiries from existing and prospective clients about investment opportunities.

"In the past few weeks, I have become more active in the stock market than in the last year," said Hari Lulla, a 67-year old individual investor. He mainly focuses on blue-chip stocks that constitute 70% of his portfolio. "Opportunities exist in every market," is how he explains his investment strategy.

[ajayhkaul]

Thanks maddyprincess for the timely contribution.

So the DUCKS are Quacking ! Louder and Louder.

I hope the 67 year old gentleman knows anything about the stock market .At his age a mistake due to ignorance would mean disaster.

Maddy is the market rush being covered in general family magazines also?

That is a milestone in a bull wave.

[ajayhkaul]

psalm wrote ......I have read an interview with Nirmal Jain, where he was arguing that this liquidity can improve fundamentals....check the link below rk...

More and more advisers are turning bullish .....check

[rk_a2003]

Sam

Nirmal jain is just echoing the Western powers wish full thinking. With the same hope the western powers are pumping in ( Printing) money not just out of fun.

Can he answer why QE1 and QE2 failed to revive the fundamentals? How can we hope this time the result will be different?

Remember! his interest is to revive retail participation so his obvious choice will be to pick up this argument put forward by western think tank.

We need to understand one basic problem in this production system it is not a need based it’s just demand supply based; as long as this mode exists we cannot escape from K-cycles. One can go through this thread to understand intricacies of K-Cycles.

If we fail to understand this basic issue we obviously get confused.

The leaders of this social system have no choice other than printing money and praying/hoping for economy revival.

If it is a real bull market, the brokers and banks never fail and the retail investor’s volume will be significant. It is not the case now. Look at the list of failed banks given by Ajay .Look at the retail brokers who closed shutters in west and in India.

Look at the world GDP… it’s going down and down. Western countries GDPs are still shrinking. China and India not able to arrest there GDP falls. Look at the tanking BDI. All these factors are not signaling any revival. Without a revival in core activity how can we expect an economic recovery?

Just go through the following extract posted by me few days ago in this thread. Nirmal jain is hoping for the same.

“The free distribution of money pumps up demand( so for short term we can say the money pumping is not that foolish). Thus delaying contraction. Are the governments hoping to delay it till such time that a new scientific/technological invention kicks in and cause demand expansion? Probably. If it happens it is better we may hope at least common mass will not suffer much and the transition can be termed as a smooth one.

But I fear dynamics of the Economy cannot be as per our wishes or even as per governments wishes.

We know once the cycle is started it has to be completed that means we have yet to see the dooms day in this cycle. FED, EU, China, Japan and other governments are trying their level best to avert this.at least they want to delay it till they find a way out.

It appears that it may not be possible, the contraction has to happen; the free paper has to go to where from it came and in the process demand for precious metals and natural resources may rise.

Let us see who will be right. Right now the signals are mixed with a more weightage towards recession.”

[rk_a2003]

[ajayhkaul]

[Thasmiq]

***Mistakes often done by traders***

1) Always wants to be in the game .. more time means less money

2) Wants money quickly .. you can’t control the market

3) Finds it very inexact – which system – how much to risk – there are no hard and fast rules ..
using a positive expectancy system with a clear edge will work out over a period of time if risk is proportionate

4) Finds it boring to trade small
Since no trade is a sure thing and even with positive expectation, it is possible to have a string of 10 consecutive lossees. It is important to risk less to give probabilities a chance to work in your favour

5) Wants immediate gratification – can’t wait
You don’t control the market

6) Keeps looking for new indicators/systems – the sure system
There is no definiteness..

7) Keeps trying new indicators
Nothing works all the time

Keeps switching between different techniques – he wants the techniques to work 100% of the time
Nothing works all the time.. Instead stick with a few proven systems and trade them all the time

9) Very Adventurous
You are here to make money and not for thrills

10) Wants to make big money overnight.. Multiple positions – excess leverage
Since you can never be sure if the next trade is a winner or if the next 10 trades are losers, why would you want to risk too much

11) Lusts for that feeling of making money
Lust for money is good but there are no shortcuts

12) Trades when there is no liquidity – fear of missing out
Don’t fear missing out since you may miss out on a loss too which is a good thing and less time at the desk is better

13) Chases market – fear of missing out
Same as 12)

14) Wants to know all techniques
It doesn’t help to know more.. What matters is that you apply a tested technique over and over again.. No one has the capital to trade multiple systems

15) Understands probabilities but lacks discipline to apply same system
Needs to understand that the key is to apply the edge over and over


Disc: This was not my own thing......i read it somewhere....finds worthy and posted it here

[vinay28]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17017217

[ajayhkaul]

Great German story with many lessons !

[vinay28]

Not This Time, China
By Jeff Siegel | Wednesday, February 8th, 2012


China sometimes reminds me of a schoolyard bully that no one has the stones to confront.

He'll take your lunch money, make you do his homework, and run your pants up a flag pole during a particularly cold and rainy day...

Or in this case, hoard the world's supply of rare earth metals.

Sure, the global community has been up in arms about it. And last week, the WTO ruled against China's stockpiling. Apparently, if China doesn't abide by the ruling, the Middle Kingdom can be sanctioned.

Of course, by the time they get around to doing that (it could take up to a year and a half), all those WTO hearings and sanction threats won't even matter anymore.

Because by then, true seekers of wealth will have already turned the tables on China's rare earth bullying — and made billions as a result.

But don't take my word for it...

Sidestepping China

As you know, rare earths are found in everything from magnets and smartphones to radar equipment and hybrid vehicles.

But don't think for a second that manufacturers of all these products are waiting around for some kind of WTO ruling to save their businesses from ruin.

Take Toyota (NYSE: TM), for instance. The Japanese automaker recently announced it has developed a way to make hybrid and electric vehicles without rare earths...

Although Toyota has also invested in non-Chinese rare earth producers as a hedge, including a Vietnamese mining company that signed off on one such deal just a few months ago.

The fact is, any company that relies on rare earths today is either actively developing new technologies that rely less and less on rare earths, or they're simply getting in on a wave of new non-Chinese rare earth producers.

A Rare Earth Bonanza

Back in April, 2010, I published an article entitled "Rare Earth Stocks to Hedge Against Chinese Control."

In that article, I wrote:

Because 95% of the world's rare earth elements are produced in China, it is becoming increasingly urgent for developers to find REEs in other parts of the world.

This becomes more and more apparent every time I talk to high-performance battery manufacturers and companies that rely on rare earth magnets for things like wind turbines and energy efficient electric motors.

Bottom line: China needs those REE supplies for its own consumption.

And in the not-too-distant future, those supplies found outside the Middle Kingdom will be the only supplies we'll be able to get our hands on.

So here are a few companies that are operating in this sector, and are not based in China:
•Avalon Rare Metals, Inc. (TSX: AVL) – projects in Canada
•Great Western Minerals Group (TSX-V: GWG) – projects in Canada, South Africa, and the U.S.
•Hudson Resources, Inc. (TSX-V: HUD) – projects in Greenland
•Rare Earth Metals (TSX- V:RA) – projects in Canada
•Commerce Resources Corp. (TSX- V:CCE) – projects in Canada

And of course, there's Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), which has just recently filed to go public. This company is looking to develop operations in Mountain Pass, California, just about 15 miles from the Nevada border.


By the end of the year (just eight months after I wrote that article), all six of those stocks delivered massive gains. Take a look:

Avalon Rare Metals: +158%


Great Western Minerals: +221%


Hudson Resources: +118%


Rare Earth Metals: +78%


Commerce Resources: +135%


Molycorp: +293%


Here's What's Next

I won't deny it. While my expertise is in modern alternative energy, I made a fortune with those rare earth plays that year.

Truth is, those were some of my best (and fastest) profits ever — until now, anyway.

Nick was scouting a remote Alberta mining property that a geologist friend gave him a tip on.

What he found was more than 612 million pounds of metal wealth (including rare earths) spread over 700,000 acres — or enough to supply the entire world for the next 100 years.

And here's the best part: The total value of all of this property's metals exceeds its market cap by more than 74,379%.

This is not a misprint.

Heck, the value of the lithium alone is enough to send this stock 31 times higher. And there's so much vanadium at this one location, it exceeds the market cap of this thing by 291 times, or enough to turn every $1,000 into $291,000.

Yes, my friends. This single North American property makes China's rare earth bounty practically irrelevant...

And I have no doubt it'll also be our biggest blockbuster of the year.

To a new way of life and a new generation of wealth...

Jeff Siegel

@JeffSiegel on Twitter

Jeff is the co-founder and managing editor of Green Chip Stocks, an independent investment research service focusing primarily on alternative energy and organic & natural food markets. He has been a featured guest on Fox, CNBC, and Bloomberg Asia, and is the author of the best-selling book, Investing in Renewable Energy: Making Money on Green Chip Stocks. For more on Jeff, go to his editor's page.

[pkholla]

vinay: Your point is one of many showing the ingenuity of goras
The US will keep reinventing itself and make new fortunes. As technology improves, shale oil will keep US chugging along for next 100 years very nicely, thank you. All others will genuflect to arabs and try to get drops!
20 years back an Aussie faced ruin as he saw his 5 acre lemon crop lose all value in the face of a glut. He didnt cry Aiee (marathi) or Ayyo (kannada/tamil) or ruin the highway by dumping it there: he experi-mented and came up with TIGER LEMON BEER. Today he has 15 factories in 11 countries.
In 1970 Japanese domination of 21st century was a "given". Today Chinese domination of 2051-2150 is a "given".
Never write off the goras. Rgds Prakash Holla

[vinay28]

invention is the mother of necessity! oops, tongue of slip!

[ajayhkaul]

While we should not underestimate anyone , including 'goras', the demographics situation is against the western countries. We have seen what demography did to Japan ....aging population is a killer.

So lets see how they handle this problem ... will they allow immigration? No matter what resources you have , you need people who can work in the fields,factories,oilfields... The Italians already have families from Punjab for dairy and wine making...

[psalm]

[vinay28]

there are some errors in this report, the major one being 02 jan 12 was never 5360 but around 4600. otherwise I too have seen this similarity. but to repeat history nifty should go down to 5000+ level