|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
The Market Mastermind ! |
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
Post: #361  Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:07 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| psalm wrote: | | maddyprincess wrote: | | From an analyst..... Seems Interesting !!!!!!!! |
Very Interesting....maddy......thanks for the document....just one more month to wait....lets see where we'll be after march.....  |
Whenever market/stock rises , RSI will also rise . And every rise will look identical - well its not exactly a finger print. RSI is not causing the market to rise , its the rise that is causing the RSI . And we all know now why there is the rise - excess liquidity.
That the market could rise to the old peak of 6340 is technically visible thru the double bottom( w formation with 5400 as the mid point ) that I wrote about in psalm's thread
The elapsed time shown raises a question ie is it a repeating time pattern other than this comparison? The duration depends on how long the QE is continued.
The budget will show funds to be raised from stake sale at a certain valuation which will be based on current bullish market sentiment.
What we need to see is what happens post stake sale .... as long as fiat currency is printed , our market will be on steroids. Will growth be stimulated with the cheap money ? we have to wait and see from the quarterly results. Budget is most likely going to be market friendly.
Also, only a break below 5400 will negate the current move.
Last edited by ajayhkaul on Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:28 pm; edited 2 times in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
kamal.icharts
Site Admin
Joined: 10 Apr 2013
Posts: 576
|
| Post: #362 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
Dear Member,
The document has been removed as it had reference to some other site which is not allowed here in Forum. Thanks for understanding.
Regards
Kamal
| maddyprincess wrote: | | From an analyst..... Seems Interesting !!!!!!!! |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
maddyprincess
White Belt
Joined: 15 Nov 2011
Posts: 160
|
| Post: #363 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 8:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
| kamal.icharts wrote: | Dear Member,
The document has been removed as it had reference to some other site which is not allowed here in Forum. Thanks for understanding.
Regards
Kamal
| maddyprincess wrote: | | From an analyst..... Seems Interesting !!!!!!!! |
|
Sorry ! I didn't notice it !!!!!
Will ensure hereafter |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
| Post: #364 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:52 am Post subject: |
|
|
At least 20% of the $7-billion foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) due for conversion this year face default risk as investors demand funds back due to stock prices languishing at less than half the stated conversion price, Fitch Ratings has forecast. Over 60% of such FCCBs are from the IT (34%) and pharma (30%) sectors.
The ratings firm says FCCBs of 59 companies are up for redemption this year. About 63% of the $7-billion FCCBs are likely to be redeemed; the companies concerned would finance it with a combination of internal accruals and fresh borrowings. About 17% of the FCCBs are likely to be restructured (mostly maturity extensions), according to Fitch. But the remaining 20% of the amount of 19 firms are likely to default with ensuing restructuring, possibly having significant distressed debt exchange (DDE) features.
The 19 companies who are most likely to default are: GTL Infrastructure, Subex, XL Energy, Gayatri Projects, Indowind Energy, Pokarna, Murli Industries, Sterling Biotech, Pyramid Saimira Theatre, KSL and Industries, 3i Infotech, Zenith Infotech, ICSA India, KLG Systel, Ankur Drugs & Pharma, Gemini Communications, Pioneer Embroideries, GV Films, and Wanbury.
Of the 31 corporates likely to redeem the FCCBs, five can use a financing option of their choice. The other 26, with a relatively weaker financial profile, would still be able to access low-cost European Central Bank, or ECB, funding or even high-cost domestic debt. The interest coverage of some of them would deteriorate due to their somewhat limited access to funding options.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/nearly-20-of-7-billion-foreign-currency-convertible-bonds-face-default-risk-this-year-says-fitch/articleshow/11997610.cms |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #365 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
Important things to remember for March. I hope I am correct about dates
1. Long expiry of 24 days
2. 6/3 - UP election results
3. 7/3 - Swearing in of UP CM
4. 10/3 - President's address
5. 14/3 - Railway budget
6. 15/3 - Economic survey
7. 16/3 - Budget
and last, RBI policy review |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
| Post: #366 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
Vital dates, Vinay. Thanks for posting .  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
|
| Post: #367 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | Important things to remember for March. I hope I am correct about dates
1. Long expiry of 24 days
2. 6/3 - UP election results
3. 7/3 - Swearing in of UP CM
4. 10/3 - President's address
5. 14/3 - Railway budget
6. 15/3 - Economic survey
7. 16/3 - Budget
and last, RBI policy review |
Thnx Vinay.....By the way, how does your 9th march scenario fits in here???....  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #368 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
| AjayKaul: when u say that 20% default ie 1.4 bn of FCCB due for conversion this year, what "year" do you mean? FY 2011-12 or CY 2012? Some approx dates for default if you know, please. Also, 5 big defaulters from IT and Pharma are ...? Sorry for troubling you! Rgds Prakash Holla |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #369 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
| 9th march scenario, sam? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
|
| Post: #370 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:56 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | 9th march scenario, sam? |
leave it....got a bit confused...hahaha....it was my mistake....  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #371 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| may be you were referring to my 4/5 month theory mail. that's due in may. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
|
| Post: #372 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | may be you were referring to my 4/5 month theory mail. that's due in may. |
yup...sorry...hehehe |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
| Post: #375 Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | maddyprincess wrote: | | From an analyst..... Seems Interesting !!!!!!!! |
Very Interesting....maddy......thanks for the document....just one more month to wait....lets see where we'll be after march..... |
Whenever market/stock rises , RSI will also rise . And every rise will look identical - well its not exactly a finger print. RSI is not causing the market to rise , its the rise that is causing the RSI . And we all know now why there is the rise - excess liquidity.
That the market could rise to the old peak of 6340 is technically visible thru the double bottom( w formation with 5400 as the mid point ) that I wrote about in psalm's thread
The elapsed time shown raises a question ie is it a repeating time pattern other than this comparison? The duration depends on how long the QE is continued.
The budget will show funds to be raised from stake sale at a certain valuation which will be based on current bullish market sentiment.
What we need to see is what happens post stake sale .... as long as fiat currency is printed , our market will be on steroids. Will growth be stimulated with the cheap money ? we have to wait and see from the quarterly results. Budget is most likely going to be market friendly.
Also, only a break below 5400 will negate the current move. |
Looks like its going to stay above 5400 NS
So the W is intact ..... next week we are off to the races again? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
