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The Market Mastermind !
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Author The Market Mastermind !
psalm
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Post: #376   PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AJAYHKAUL wrote:
AJAYHKAUL wrote:
psalm wrote:
maddyprincess wrote:
From an analyst..... Seems Interesting !!!!!!!!



Very Interesting....maddy......thanks for the document....just one more month to wait....lets see where we'll be after march..... Smile


Whenever market/stock rises , RSI will also rise . And every rise will look identical - well its not exactly a finger print. RSI is not causing the market to rise , its the rise that is causing the RSI . And we all know now why there is the rise - excess liquidity.

That the market could rise to the old peak of 6340 is technically visible thru the double bottom( w formation with 5400 as the mid point ) that I wrote about in psalm's thread

The elapsed time shown raises a question ie is it a repeating time pattern other than this comparison? The duration depends on how long the QE is continued.

The budget will show funds to be raised from stake sale at a certain valuation which will be based on current bullish market sentiment.

What we need to see is what happens post stake sale .... as long as fiat currency is printed , our market will be on steroids. Will growth be stimulated with the cheap money ? we have to wait and see from the quarterly results. Budget is most likely going to be market friendly.

Also, only a break below 5400 will negate the current move.



Looks like its going to stay above 5400 NS

So the W is intact ..... next week we are off to the races again?


Could be Ajay...but one will see more profit booking, I feel. Having said this, I wont be shocked if i see another 300-400 point rally from here. But I dont expect more than that as of now.
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psalm
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Post: #377   PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There will be buyers for this correction. Because there are a lot of people with "left out" feeling. They'll jump to buy if there is a correction. But the important aspect will be the next leg of correction. That will be the time, one will see panic. Anyway, with liquidity, nothing will work.....so, we can only wait and watch..... Smile
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #378   PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

True psalm .... it will be interesting to see how far we can run up (as long as 5400 NS is not broken) before we correct significantly .

The FCCB issue is an interesting catalyst also since the amounts involved are large and can affect the banks. To prevent any problem , we should see even more printing , rising stocks and better valuations etc .....thats the jig , I guess

Laughing
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #379   PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AJAYHKAUL wrote:
pkholla wrote:
AjayKaul: when u say that 20% default ie 1.4 bn of FCCB due for conversion this year, what "year" do you mean? FY 2011-12 or CY 2012? Some approx dates for default if you know, please. Also, 5 big defaulters from IT and Pharma are ...? Sorry for troubling you! Rgds Prakash Holla


Its the CY 2012 in most cases.

Read more here:

http://www.asiamoney.com/Article/2978691/Corporate-Indias-refinancing-woes.html

http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/100-firms-to-redeem-fccbs-next-year/1/16165.html


pkholla ... I found the list from an old post on the internet. You can see the list of companies with due dates. The market prices of the stocks are of January 2009 so they need to be updated. However the list contains the info you seek
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #380   PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Non-convertible pain
Companies that have issued FCCBs

FCCBs are a time bomb waiting to explode.

It would be prudent for the retail investors to look at the extent of debt in the balance sheet and exposure to FCCBs before investing in a stock.

The books may be cooked or share prices manipulated.....
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rk_a2003
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Post: #381   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

‘Elpida’ one of the leading memory manufacturer in Japan declared bankruptcy and fell by 98% .Nikkei celebrated with 125 point rise .Good reason to rise. It was believed that Japan Government is going to bail out the company.

In my child hood days I read a story…. some one came to Emperor Krishnadeva raya’s father’s court and showed a line drawn on a slate. And challenged can any one make it small with out erasing it? Every one tried hard but failed, finally one young man came forward and drawn a big line beside the existing line and said see now the first one is small. The person was none other than ‘Thimmarasu’ and was being appointed by king as a minister of the kingdom.

Now the world is behaving in a little reversal way as we have already witnessed bankruptcies of big corporations which were considered as too big to fail and even ready to witness countries bankruptcies then it’s a small thing…. a bankruptcy of a not so big company in Japan…. in fact it’s time to celebrate.

All over the world governments are on printing spree how does it matter printing some more. Almost every time negative news are taken in a positive way saying that they are discounted .The same thing may happen to disappointing GDP figures.Have you ever heard of a phrase "Positive news discounting?!"

In fact they are looting world citizens, you and me. They took services and produces from you by paying say 100 bucks. After giving you the money later they are devaluing it to 70 bucks. Who are the loser governments or you?

Learnt people are running towards shelters to protect their hard earned money mainly for precious metals.

This is sure a suckers rally. A giant vacuum created by liquidity power is drawing in almost every investor to believe the obvious as seen by naked eyes – the prices are up, that’s all.

Just don’t believe what you see judge with discretion. Think logically and rationally.


Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.
Do not believe in anything because it is spoken and rumored by many.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your books.
Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.
But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with
Reason…then accept it and live up to it.

-The Buddha
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pkholla
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Post: #382   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AJAYHKAUL wrote:
AJAYHKAUL wrote:

Its the CY 2012 in most cases.
http://www.asiamoney.com/Article/2978691/Corporate-Indias-refinancing-woes.html
http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/100-firms-to-redeem-fccbs-next-year/1/16165.html

pkholla ... I found the list from an old post on the internet. You can see the list of companies with due dates. The market prices of the stocks are of January 2009 so they need to be updated. However the list contains the info you seek


AjayKaul: thanks a lot for trouble taken & for replying. 1 small problem. Am using Excel 2003 and not able to access xlsx file.
But dont bother, the links above are most satisfactory!
Rgds Prakash Holla
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vinay28
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Post: #383   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1aQ-XGWors
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #384   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the file is now in the required format
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #385   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Sucker is born every minute , RK Laughing
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pkholla
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Post: #386   PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AjayKaul: Thanks once again Very informative. Prakash Holla
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rk_a2003
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Post: #387   PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why Gold and silver fell by 4 % and 8 % respectively? they are not paper money to diminish like this. The global powers are worried about the rise of Gold and silver. It’s a fight between inevitability and brutal power on work to stop that inevitability. When it was said inevitable no need to explain who is going to win. You cannot go on printing paper and keep gold and silver prices under control by shorting through derivatives .Ultimately fundamentals win.

Bernanke do hinted that there would be no QE3. So it’s the end of the easy money mela. So! Guy’s come on and short the precious metals. All the big banks and institutes teamed up for shorting them otherwise is it possible for Gold and Silver to plunge within minutes?. They are not trash paper.

Well! No more paper trash from USA what about the trash already printed and distributed still being distributed?. Accordingly precious metals has to rise. You can’t stop it.

I only can say this drama packed action confirms inevitable rise of Gold and Silver. So guys ….. It’s time to accumulate them at the end of this so called correction or even right away.
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #388   PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Supercharged thoughts ,RK ! Kudos !

If people move off fiat currency to physical precious metals , the government cannot control them ( unless they order confiscation , which they are quite capable of. Remember then that we elected them !!!)

As you already said 'its a suckers rally' .

Expect a blow off top .
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vinay28
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Post: #389   PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez is ill and poilitical equations are changing in venezuela. does that make any sense?

also profits from gold and silver are going into equity markets where profits are huge and fast.
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #390   PostPosted: Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the recent testimony before Congress , Fed Chief Ben Bernanke played down the chances of further quantitative easing (QE3), and that’s something the stock market doesn’t like.


The stock market rally of the past two years has been fueled by worldwide expansion in the circulation of currencies—money printing. Turning the printing presses off will, crash the markets.


If the economic situation deteriorates (we are in that process now), the printing presses will run overtime. Don’t count this bear market rally out just yet.
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