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The Market Mastermind ! |
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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Post: #406  Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:16 am Post subject: |
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RK .... no one should 'invest' without first forming the big picture and setting up markers that will confirm it or negate the view.
Investment time frames will dictate -- shorter time frames are best dealt with technicals and longer time frames yield better results , in my view , when you combine FA and TA.
FA( so much news/events) is difficult for most , but then so is TA ( that's why so many indicators and the search for the 'holy grail' ). Disciplined approach to both gives great results.
It is heartening to see many contributors to various threads are now posting very interesting and relevant reports from various media( there is a good one from givemegold today).
Combined with icharts , we have a perfect recipe for success! And keep them coming RK, Vinay,psalm....as we go along we are getting sharper with the analysis |
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ragarwal
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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| Post: #407 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:35 am Post subject: |
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Heartfelt thanks RK,Vinay,Ajay,Sam,for continuously guiding and nurturing all newbies and learners  |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #408 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 7:25 am Post subject: |
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Rashmi
It’s as well guiding and nurturing ourselves. No one is complete; we may near perfection with mutual interactions and contributions. It’s a collective effort which can produce amazing results. All of us are part of it.
Sorry! No exclusion for you too. I know your worthy contributions in various threads.  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #409 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| yes rk, rashmi is truely modest. |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #411 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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Here is some food for thought from a renowned trader:
...Trading strategies are dependent on 3 variables: time, price and volume. It doesn't matter if you are using moving averages, stochastics, MACD, RSI, etc, and these are the basic indicators that make up most strategies. But with new technology, high speed computer systems, and co-location of servers inside the exchanges, tried and true strategies are just not keeping up any longer. In fact, we could go so far as to say, in its purest form, technical analysis no longer works.
High frequency trading robots (HFT's) are now trading the Markets. The exchanges admit that over 50% of all trades come from HFT's. HFT's are based upon new algorithms and not dependent on the basic 3 variables. Since they are co-located inside the exchanges, they get filled that much faster than smaller investors. As an example, an individual investor is using technical analysis and his trading strategy, the moving average. Everything looks great, and he enters. No sooner than that, and he gets stopped out. A large volume trade appears as if from no where in the opposite direction, not something that could have been predicted. These type of trades occur regularly in all the exchanges.
How do you handle this kind of trading strategy interference? The answer is, you can no longer rely on the old tried and true indicators. You need to find new mathematics for trading. Don't rely on indicators that provide "high probability guesses" because they are no longer reliable....'
Traders may want to share their experiences of when their earlier 'tried and tested' systems were resulting in higher +ve expectancy and now dont perform as well.
Just to stay ahead in the game ......... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #413 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:10 am Post subject: |
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Timely post psalm!
As the markets rise , insiders start selling .Its makes great sense to sell while the going is good and the small/retail investors ( ducks) start to come in.
I think the market is moving well along the price/emotion chart. A bull run now will bring in folks in droves ..... this is then going to be the 'public' phase of the rise |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #414 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 11:11 am Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | Timely post psalm!
As the markets rise , insiders start selling .Its makes great sense to sell while the going is good and the small/retail investors ( ducks) start to come in.
I think the market is moving well along the price/emotion chart. A bull run now will bring in folks in droves ..... this is then going to be the 'public' phase of the rise |
I very much believe that the market might start cracking from 21st of this month (after the Greek event) onwards. We might top out around the time of budget. The reasons for the pessimism is technicals on one side and fundamentals on the other side. Most of the positive fundamentals have already been priced in, I guess. The probability of further positive stories coming from the western world looks dim, at least for another few months. At the same time, people are predicting doom days for the economies. Domestically, the rate cuts, results have all been factored in. Budget could be the next trigger. But the situation looks pretty challenging for the FM now. Even if we have a positive budget, the FIIs or the smart investors might use it to exit.
NOTE: The contrarian view is that we might get more inflow in the coming months because of the money printing and the recession in the western world. Once we start trading above 5750 levels, anything could be possible. We wont be far from the all time highs then. Let's wait and watch. One will be able to find where we're and where we're going to in a few weeks or so. |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #415 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 11:53 am Post subject: |
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PSU stake sale ... what is left ?
How aggressively will RBI move?
whats in the budget?
earnings season coming up and final results -good bad ugly?
The rally is not got to euphoric levels yet . some corrections along the way are expected.
When do FII unwind - mid year(May) or end of year ? LIC needs to move in to stem the outflow and can they do that? whats the deal?
There is also the election year for the US. So we need to see how that pans out and whether China throws a spanner in the works.
Printing presses will work overtime as other EU countries also need bailing out (maybe happening already)
At the moment more for upside than downside
Note that the recent correction was only about 38% fib.... an indicator of strength. So I am sticking out my neck to predict 6300-6400
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #416 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | PSU stake sale ... what is left ?
How aggressively will RBI move?
whats in the budget?
earnings season coming up and final results -good bad ugly?
The rally is not got to euphoric levels yet . some corrections along the way are expected.
When do FII unwind - mid year(May) or end of year ? LIC needs to move in to stem the outflow and can they do that? whats the deal?
There is also the election year for the US. So we need to see how that pans out and whether China throws a spanner in the works.
Printing presses will work overtime as other EU countries also need bailing out (maybe happening already)
At the moment more for upside than downside
Note that the recent correction was only about 38% fib.... an indicator of strength. So I am sticking out my neck to predict 6300-6400
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I hope that way (6300/6400), Ajay...cos most of the people make money only when the market goes up. So, I really hope that the market goes up from here. Having said that, I'll start booking profit from around 5520 onwards....The range 5520-5660 is for the profit booking, at least for me...and then I'll start shorting the market if it goes above 5660. I'll be selling upto 5740 with stoploss above 5750. If the market trades above 5750, then i'll close my shorts and will initiate LONGs. That's what I've in mind, as of now. I dont think it will take very long to find where we're going.  |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #417 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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Lets write the script , shall we ?
A. stake sale , how?
B. we need foreign funds to step in while we rotate
A. talk to EU banks etc plus turn the screw on the black money holders
B. You mean laundry?
A. Whatever , get them to prop up markets
B. Sure , will do
A. ONGC was a fiasco , what about the rest ? Need more pump.How is retail doing?
B. They are getting smarter.
A. A sucker is born every minute , so at some price they will come in hordes
B. FII need assured returns
A. No problems , public can hold the baby
B. Profit booking ?
A. Not too much , do in lots say 5%, else ducks will stay out.
B. Public needs triggers , so what about budget?
A. Some tax breaks , remove STT
B. Inflation , IIP ?
A. Fudge it
B. Done , we have the right guys with fake degrees in commerce from univ of chinchpokli .what about reforms ,FDI in retail, aam aadmi?
A. what about 'somras'?
B. this early in the day ?
A. So much strategising , we need a break all the time.and hey buy up some stock in ....
POP! bottoms up! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #418 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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your poem doesn't rhyme!  |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #419 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Poem ? this is a script ! |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #420 Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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More signs of liquidity ... now in the denial mode :
'The market continues to exhibit the technical signs associated with a bull market. But perhaps even more important, the Fed members deny that another QE3 is in the works while at the same time devising new plans to inject bond money into the equity markets. As long as the Fed continues to pump funds into the “risk markets,” the risk of owning stocks rather than bonds decreases.'
We can see the liquidity coming in again for the last few days ....so as always 'DON'T FIGHT THE FED( aka liquidity)' |
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