iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

rk, I think it is time you started doing your research on dollar-rupee rate and sensex again.

[pkholla]

Nice joke from Fin Min: thinking (of raising diesel prices) since June 2011. Probably FIVE YEAR PLAN No. 420: will be implemented by June 2016

Next joke: thinking (of raising kero prices) since June 1999
Next hasi: thinking (of raising LPG prices) since June 2002
Next belly laugh: thinking (of raising fertilizer prices) since June 2003
Next shock: thinking (of raising electricity prices) since June 2009

Thats why Aadhar is being derailed. How rulers can survive loss of diversion of funds thru diversion of LPG, kero, diesel, grains, etc if Aadhar puts full stop to it?

I am amazed that S&P took so much time to downgrade India! And why not to "junk"? That would be a shock like 1991 to forcibly improve working.

I appeal to S&P to downgrade Railways to junk so that Bongla road block can be swept aside!

[pkholla]

Vinay: you had pointed out that Reliance is shutting down kero plant for maintenance (to save money by not selling at loss). Today we hear that Mangalore Ref has shut down due to water shortage (on sea shore, what shortage?)
Is Government getting ready to revise all petro prices by first BLACKMAILING itself??? ("mai kya karu?")
Rgds, Prakash Holla

[pkholla]

Friends: Government wants disinvestment money but making all the wrong moves. Is it deliberate? So that Nifty drifts down to 47-48-4900?
Then all at once, POL increases announced, most POL prices marked to market, clear signal to FIIs that GAAP NOT applicable to them, further market marked moves by RBI, black money amnesty scheme. Labour laws simplified, tax laws simplified, land laws simplified, FDI allowed in some key areas like retail, aviation. Government releases some of its Forex to Corporates struggling to repay foreign currency bonds .....
Are we then looking at 57-58-5900 again?
Regards, Prakash Holla

[vinay28]

you are praying for a "junk" rating and hoping for 5900? Pray for the latter, I am

[pkholla]

[vinay28]

I am expecting fuel price hike

[ajayhkaul]

“Geithner said certain tax provisions in India’s fiscal year 2013 budget have raised significant concern among US industry and dampened enthusiasm about India’s investment climate," according to an emailed statement from Treasury spokeswoman Kara Alaimo. The treasury department is examining India’s proposed tax provisions to determine their impact on the US-India bilateral income-tax treaty, it said.

Geithner encouraged finance minister Mukherjee to reassure foreign investors that India will continue to welcome foreign capital, by advancing important economic reforms that will increase opportunities for bilateral trade and investment, and strengthen India’s business climate through greater transparency and predictability, the statement said....''

Our FM needs encouragement from Tim Geithner ??

"....But the finance minister and the PM seem to give audiences to FII agents and FDI dalals at the drop of a hat. They seem to have met relevant ministers/bureaucrats at least a dozen times in the last one month. But who listens even for a moment to the average Indian housewife whose savings is the primary cause of our economic growth, or to the plumber from Kerala, struggling in shanty camps in West Asia, whose remittances sustain us.
It is time the finance ministry and the Republic of India are run by the finance minister and not by FIIs and FDI agents.....R Vaidyanathan Professor of Finance and Control, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.[/i]

[ajayhkaul]

Over the last many trading days the Nifty has held around 200DMA , despite all the noise about taxation of FII etc.

What gives ?

VIX is underwater for long ? How come?

weak bulls shaken , not stirred ? or vice versa ?

I see an upward move coming up ( even starting tomorrow , though a friday) before a sell off in line with 'sell in May and go away'

As usual the charts can keep you waiting for the breakout that will come ONLY from a catalyst event like QE3 dose , RBI moves , Tim Geithner blackmail etc....

[rk_a2003]

"....But the finance minister and the PM seem to give audiences to FII agents and FDI dalals at the drop of a hat. They seem to have met relevant ministers/bureaucrats at least a dozen times in the last one month. But who listens even for a moment to the average Indian housewife whose savings is the primary cause of our economic growth, or to the plumber from Kerala, struggling in shanty camps in West Asia, whose remittances sustain us.

It is time the finance ministry and the Republic of India are run by the finance minister and not by FIIs and FDI agents.....R Vaidyanathan Professor of Finance and Control, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore




Thanks for bringing this to us Ajay.

[rk_a2003]

Fed is "prepared to take further action" if the economy deteriorates. ___Chairman Ben Bernanke

At the backdrop of this statement US markets rose initially on Thursday despite poor Job market and poor home sales.

It was aptly described by CNN Money in the following manner.

"Stocks gain as 'stimulus addicts' look for a fix "....... How long this will work?!

[vinay28]

India is a BRIC country with a per capita income of 1500$ while for Brazil and Russia it is 13000.

[ajayhkaul]

'....the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked the world to provide more funds to help Europe out of its financial crisis.

Many parts of the world have expressed concern over Europe and have demanded the European Union do what is necessary to stem the financial crisis. Despite nations of the world feeling that Europe should handle its own financial crisis, the world has come together to provide the IMF with an additional $430 billion.

Japan is contributing $60.0 billion and the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—are providing $68.0 billion, although they won’t say how the money is split amongst their group. China has bought European debt in the billions of dollars to help support its largest customer during their financial crisis; China’s biggest export market is Europe.

With China dealing with its slowing economy and Japan faced with its own financial crisis, and with their contributions to help Europe with its financial crisis, who is going to buy U.S. Treasuries?..."

The US FED , of course ...and that is QE3

Another dose of steroids for the markets.

[pkholla]

[vinay28]

I don't know where to put it but since I had posted on old market sentiment about closing on first day of expiry and month here some months ago, I am doing it here only.

Loud thoughts

First the old sentiment

1. Nifty honoured the old market sentiment by closing above 5179 (expiry of March) in this expiry

2. If it has to continue to honour the sentiment then, as posted a few times earlier,
(a) today should close above today’s close i.e.5189 to signify that May expiry will be positive (note that (i) the margin by which it closes above is not important and (ii) May expiry too needs to close above 5189 only or close of 2nd May, whichever is higher, for reasons given in para 3.),
(b) 30th April should normally close above 5296 (close on 30th March) to confirm continuation of sentiment for the month of April, but 2nd April closed at 5318 and hence 30th April should preferably close above 5318, and
(c) 2nd May should close above 30th April close if it is to continue +ve sentiment for the month of May (again note that (i) the margin by which it closes above is not important and (ii) 31st May too needs to close above 5296 only or close of 2nd May, whichever is higher).

3. The month of May is going to be crucial. 31st May is also the expiry and, therefore, it will be interesting to see whether it closes above 5189 or 5296 or close of 2nd May. Although THAT should tell us the shape of things to come, I am afraid we will know it before month end itself.

Market Outlook

How does the above fit into the overall market outlook?

4. A lot of experts have been talking about lower levels such as 5050, 5000 and lower. Others, including novices like me, also opine that levels of 5400/5600/5900 are also possible. I feel that, however bullish a trend there may be, 5077 is possible, albeit permissible. Then, in view of the above, I feel that the following scenario is possible:

5. Nifty may go up till 5339 till 30th April (140 points in 2-3 days), close at/above 5318 and then go down to 5077-5050-5000 or wherever it wants to go. If +ve sentiment is shown for both May expiry and month of May by closing of today and on 2nd May, market may go down from 3rd May till levels mentioned above before starting upwards journey. I also feel that market will go up and come down viciously in May.

6. It is possible that today’s close shows +ve sentiment for May expiry but 2nd May closes below 30th April showing –ve sentiment for the month of May. The requirement for close on 31st May then is above 5296 only, not 5318, as stated above, a minor difference. But, I feel this will create confusion amongst traders. In short, May promises to be a very interesting if not volatile, with large up and down swings.