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vinay28
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Post: #586  Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #587 Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | Over the last many trading days the Nifty has held around 200DMA , despite all the noise about taxation of FII etc.
What gives ?
VIX is underwater for long ? How come?
weak bulls shaken , not stirred ? or vice versa ?
I see an upward move coming up ( even starting tomorrow , though a friday) before a sell off in line with 'sell in May and go away'
As usual the charts can keep you waiting for the breakout that will come ONLY from a catalyst event like QE3 dose , RBI moves , Tim Geithner blackmail etc.... |
Looks like the upward move has started ......though I would like to see higher volumes .They can come in as the day progresses.
It seems MOODYs just had a change of heart !!??
'MUMBAI, APRIL 25:
Even as Standard & Poor's revised the outlook on India's long-term rating to negative from stable, rival credit rating agency, Moody's reiterated that the outlook on the country's ratings is stable.
Moody's said the relatively strong GDP growth is likely to remain a credit strength over the medium term. However, government deficits and debt ratios will also continue to surpass those of similarly-rated peers.
The risk posed by the high government debt burden is mitigated by the availability of a deep domestic savings pool to finance it.
'http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article3353419.ece
Now watch for a series of 'good news' ,but never forget that it is all in preparation for 'sell in May and go away' |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #588 Posted: Wed May 02, 2012 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | | ajayhkaul wrote: | Over the last many trading days the Nifty has held around 200DMA , despite all the noise about taxation of FII etc.
What gives ?
VIX is underwater for long ? How come?
weak bulls shaken , not stirred ? or vice versa ?
I see an upward move coming up ( even starting tomorrow , though a friday) before a sell off in line with 'sell in May and go away'
As usual the charts can keep you waiting for the breakout that will come ONLY from a catalyst event like QE3 dose , RBI moves , Tim Geithner blackmail etc.... |
Looks like the upward move has started ......though I would like to see higher volumes .They can come in as the day progresses.
It seems MOODYs just had a change of heart !!??
'MUMBAI, APRIL 25:
Even as Standard & Poor's revised the outlook on India's long-term rating to negative from stable, rival credit rating agency, Moody's reiterated that the outlook on the country's ratings is stable.
Moody's said the relatively strong GDP growth is likely to remain a credit strength over the medium term. However, government deficits and debt ratios will also continue to surpass those of similarly-rated peers.
The risk posed by the high government debt burden is mitigated by the availability of a deep domestic savings pool to finance it.
'http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article3353419.ece
Now watch for a series of 'good news' ,but never forget that it is all in preparation for 'sell in May and go away' |
For some reason this shows as an older post even though its todays |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #589 Posted: Wed May 02, 2012 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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"....China's possible fall below the recent growth rate of over 8 percent is like the Hollywood thriller Speed, in which a bomb on a bus is set to detonate if the vehicle slows to below fifty miles an hour."
A nice metaphor for China
Chinese markets are down 40% from the peak..... |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #590 Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 10:00 am Post subject: |
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The worries about tax proposals and a worsening currency situation could dent investor confidence further.
In terms of the cumulative market value of all listed companies, the value of mutual funds' holdings eroded by 681 crore in April while domestic institutional investors and retail investors lost about 5,117 crore and 2,000 crore, respectively.
"Though there is surplus liquidity, foreign investors are cautious on the Indian market, mainly because of issues like GAAR,'' said said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist of Care Ratings. "Hence, they pulled out some of their investments in April. That is one of the reasons for the rupee depreciation. With the clarity on GAAR and subsequent capital inflows, the rupee should start appreciating by June end and I would think 55 level is possible at the higher side.''
FIIs, once the main drivers of the Indian market, have turned negative on Indian equities since April 1. After investing over 43,951 crore, or over $8.85 billion, in the first three months of 2012, pulled out 1,109 crore, or $206 million from equities in April. According to Sebi data, FIIs have also withdrawn 3,788 crore, or $721 million, from the debt market in April 2012....EconomicTimes
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/photo/12973150.cms |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #591 Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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Indian Markets went down vehemently outperforming world markets. The GARR issue coupled with Rupee devaluation played spoil sport.
Now world markets poised for a correction. China slowdown confirmed. The property bubble may burst any time in China.Austarlian market, which displayed resilience in recent times (Thanks to easing ) finally gave up and coming down.U.K officially entered in to double dip recession. Indian growth hovering around 6+.Europe limping slowly…. The drag is increasing on it in the form of Greece, Spain, Italy ……and so on.
Till recently world markets rallied with the help of easy money induced in Europe & USA and with the promise of further induction; This rally was missed out completely by India.
What will happen in case the correction sets in in US and other markets? Are Indian Markets going to tumbledown further? or will they display resilience? outperforming again…this time positively.
The only hope is……. historically during presidential election season US markets rallied in general.
What’s going to happen?
Meanwhile, if Rupee touches 56 against $ go for 1st installment of investment. In case it reaches 59 then go for all out investing. Sell your gold and pick your stocks. Don’t trade. Start booking profits from 30 %+.Even Rupee reaches 56 or 59 it will definitely come back to 40+ levels at a later stage. It has to happen. It’s not easy to knock down an elephant.
Last edited by rk_a2003 on Mon May 07, 2012 8:50 am; edited 2 times in total |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #592 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 2:28 am Post subject: |
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Why was Ben Bernanke in China with Tim Geithner and Hillary Clinton? That trio doing a road trip is unprecedented. Something is happening, or about to happen, that the U.S. and Chinese economic powers are very, very worried about.
“What is it that they’re worried about?
They’re probably coordinating a plan to prop up the euro, if on Sunday France elects a Socialist who says he wants to lower the retirement age back to 60, revisit all the austerity measures imposed by the Sarkozy regime, and derail St. Nick’s “EuroOne’ stance, dance, and dalliance with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“Disrupting the “Merkozy’ relationship that has helped stabilize Europe and the euro might be the first step in the undoing of Europe’s perceived hegemony.
And the winner is .....
In a victory speech in Tulle in central France, Mr Hollande said he was ''proud to have been capable of giving people hope again''.He said he would push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to growth.
Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option, he said.
Mr Hollande has called for a renegotiation of a European treaty on budget discipline championed by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and Mr Sarkozy.
The BBC reports Mr Hollande capitalised on the country's economic woes and President Sarkozy's unpopularity.
He wants to raise the minimum wage, hire 60,000 more teachers and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #593 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Indian Markets went down vehemently outperforming world markets. The GARR issue coupled with Rupee devaluation played spoil sport.
Now world markets poised for a correction. China slowdown confirmed. The property bubble may burst any time in China.Austarlian market, which displayed resilience in recent times (Thanks to easing ) finally gave up and coming down.U.K officially entered in to double dip recession. Indian growth hovering around 6+.Europe limping slowly…. The drag is increasing on it in the form of Greece, Spain, Italy ……and so on.
Till recently world markets rallied with the help of easy money induced in Europe & USA and with the promise of further induction; This rally was missed out completely by India.
What will happen in case the correction sets in in US and other markets? Are Indian Markets going to tumbledown further? or will they display resilience? outperforming again…this time positively.
The only hope is……. historically during presidential election season US markets rallied in general.
What’s going to happen?
Meanwhile, if Rupee touches 56 against $ go for 1st installment of investment. In case it reaches 59 then go for all out investing. Sell your gold and pick your stocks. Don’t trade. Start booking profits from 30 %+.Even Rupee reaches 56 or 59 it will definitely come back to 40+ levels at a later stage. It has to happen. It’s not easy to knock down an elephant. |
France elected ‘Socialist’ president. Greece rejected existing rulers.
What 'Socialism' can do in Europe?!.There is no socialist left in true sense. Still people are opting them with a fragile hope.
The world markets are cheering the result in their own way. Clueless people are opting out for the ‘alternative’ whichever is available.
Don’t get surprised even if in US some kind of ‘Socialist ‘president emerge.
Now the chances of early QE3 improved. Till that announcement enjoy the bear market.
Meanwhile RBI is attempting to arrest Rupee fall. Increased deposit rates for NRI’s. Easing norms for Inflows. Expect a bounce in rupee for short term as speculators may back track for a while against Rupee. |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #594 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| Events calendar provided by RK and Vinay is a great supporting tool as market players tend to 'adjust' their positions in anticipation of the upcoming event or as they are called viz. 'CATALYSTS' |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #595 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | | Events calendar provided by RK and Vinay is a great supporting tool as market players tend to 'adjust' their positions in anticipation of the upcoming event or as they are called viz. 'CATALYSTS' |
Event following can some times help you a lot.
On friday just before closing I went in to short positions irrespitive of talk in tv channels about easing of GARR and prospective bounce up in Indian markets on Monday.
The logic behind it as explained earlier..... France and Greece may choose status-quo.Then market is not going to gap up. I may close my positions cost to cost.
In case they choose otherwise definetly markets are going to gap down.
My calculated risk gave me again profits.markets opened with gapdown .Booked profits and going for work ...See you all later in the evening.  |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #596 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | | ajayhkaul wrote: | Over the last many trading days the Nifty has held around 200DMA , despite all the noise about taxation of FII etc.
What gives ?
VIX is underwater for long ? How come?
weak bulls shaken , not stirred ? or vice versa ?
I see an upward move coming up ( even starting tomorrow , though a friday) before a sell off in line with 'sell in May and go away'
As usual the charts can keep you waiting for the breakout that will come ONLY from a catalyst event like QE3 dose , RBI moves , Tim Geithner blackmail etc.... |
Looks like the upward move has started ......though I would like to see higher volumes .They can come in as the day progresses.
It seems MOODYs just had a change of heart !!??
'MUMBAI, APRIL 25:
Even as Standard & Poor's revised the outlook on India's long-term rating to negative from stable, rival credit rating agency, Moody's reiterated that the outlook on the country's ratings is stable.
Moody's said the relatively strong GDP growth is likely to remain a credit strength over the medium term. However, government deficits and debt ratios will also continue to surpass those of similarly-rated peers.
The risk posed by the high government debt burden is mitigated by the availability of a deep domestic savings pool to finance it.
'http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article3353419.ece
Now watch for a series of 'good news' ,but never forget that it is all in preparation for 'sell in May and go away' |
The CATALYST event of elections in Europe is making the nifty retrace 62% fib of the rise to 5630? Although it all started with the budget/taxation problems as nifty seemed to stagnate around 5200.
Here is an interesting co-relation with FII inflows , since we track FII data in one of our threads.
Is FII flows a leading indicator for the economy ? Or is it the GDP that brings in the FII?
"FIIs base their equity investment decisions on expected returns from the stock as well as currency. They also have contemporary information about growth prospects," says Saugata Bhattacharya, head of business research at Axis Bank. The ongoing quarter could test which is the horse and which is the cart. ---ET
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/fii-pullout-gdp-economy-unusually-sensitive-to-fickle-investment-flows/articleshow/13027767.cms?curpg=1 |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #597 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | ajayhkaul wrote: | | Events calendar provided by RK and Vinay is a great supporting tool as market players tend to 'adjust' their positions in anticipation of the upcoming event or as they are called viz. 'CATALYSTS' |
Event following can some times help you a lot.
On friday just before closing I went in to short positions irrespitive of talk in tv channels about easing of GARR and prospective bounce up in Indian markets on Monday.
The logic behind it as explained earlier..... France and Greece may choose status-quo.Then market is not going to gap up. I may close my positions cost to cost.
In case they choose otherwise definetly markets are going to gap down.
My calculated risk gave me again profits.markets opened with gapdown .Booked profits and going for work ...See you all later in the evening. |
Great bet.... RK |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #598 Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Imagine a Greek stock market investor on buy and hold AND if he needs money today. The index is back to 1992 levels, 20 years later |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #599 Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Ajay: What r the chances of Hollande's La Belle France doing the same Greek dance (CAX?). He appears to be as stupid as the Greek Trage-Comedians! With Merkel losing local elections in Germany, Cameron in deep s%^t in UK, is there any chamatkar tara on the horizon???? The only + is Burlesque-oni looking to be permanently out of Italy politics!! Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #600 Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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| the last time a socialist won in france, cac fell 30% |
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