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vinay28
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Post: #646  Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| aur biwi se? |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #647 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | aur biwi se? |
Remember , I like to think I am a contrarian?
The holiday is dedicated to the wife ! (like, patnivrata)
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vinay28
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| Post: #648 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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| my sympathies |
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pkholla
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| Post: #649 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | aur biwi se? |
Remember , I like to think I am a contrarian?The holiday is dedicated to the wife ! (like, patnivrata) |
Vinay: Do u notice he is NOT clearly telling us what he did. Whether he went with patni or enjoyed dooor hokay, bas patni ko yaad kiya, once in a while!
VINAY: Seriously, do you think market is waiting to see what happens to POL? Whether, like railway budget, petrol is rolled back= NF down. Whether diesel and LPG also up next week = NF up ????????
I dont think BPCL. HPCL and IOC can stay afloat much longer anyway at this rate
Prakash Holla |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #650 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | ajayhkaul wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | aur biwi se? |
Remember , I like to think I am a contrarian?The holiday is dedicated to the wife ! (like, patnivrata) |
Vinay: Do u notice he is NOT clearly telling us what he did. Whether he went with patni or enjoyed dooor hokay, bas patni ko yaad kiya, once in a while!
VINAY: Seriously, do you think market is waiting to see what happens to POL? Whether, like railway budget, petrol is rolled back= NF down. Whether diesel and LPG also up next week = NF up ????????
I dont think BPCL. HPCL and IOC can stay afloat much longer anyway at this rate
Prakash Holla |
Thoughts in the holiday mood ;
If you have fear of some pain or suffering( aka stock market) , you should examine whether there is anything you can do about it. If you can, there is no need to worry about it; if you cannot do anything, then there is also no need to worry.
-- Dalai Lama |
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vinay28
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| Post: #651 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| prakash, biggest joke is BPCL announcing bonus! |
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vinay28
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| Post: #652 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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I thought I will post it here so as not to spoil sam's thread.
experts - is this not HnS? If so, is not completed and bottoming over unless 4789 is intact? |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #653 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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I am suggesting that the market has bottomed out .
4789 is unlikely to be broken (barring a black swan event)
QE3 is required for a proper bull run |
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pkholla
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| Post: #654 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | prakash, biggest joke is BPCL announcing bonus! |
Vinay: No, Sir, not biggest joke at all. BPCL is a running company, has reserves from Burmah-Shell days and can give 4:20 bonus!!!
The biggest joke is ADAG giving bonus to non-Ambani shareholders just after IPO and much before even plant site puja to soften blow of MV much below IPO price.
Some joker in FinMin must have remembered Anil's brilliant strategy to "bewakuf banao" the market. Regards, Salud, Prost, Prakash Holla |
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pkholla
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| Post: #655 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | I am suggesting that the market has bottomed out .
4789 is unlikely to be broken (barring a black swan event) QE3 is required for a proper bull run |
Ajay: How can you be sure that Delhi quack-lings dont chicken out and roll back petrol price next week as soon as they see Didi's chapati roller raised menacingly? Once investors are sure, then, that NO market reform is possible from this lame duck govt., isnt that very much a BLACK SWAN moment? Prakash Holla |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #656 Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | ajayhkaul wrote: | I am suggesting that the market has bottomed out .
4789 is unlikely to be broken (barring a black swan event) QE3 is required for a proper bull run |
Ajay: How can you be sure that Delhi quack-lings dont chicken out and roll back petrol price next week as soon as they see Didi's chapati roller raised menacingly? Once investors are sure, then, that NO market reform is possible from this lame duck govt., isnt that very much a BLACK SWAN moment? Prakash Holla |
Prakash .... to understand this , we must 'empathize' ie put yourself in the shoes of the ruling party and FM.
Are they naive ? They did not expect the public and opposition to revolt?
Come on...they know this would happen
At the same time they need to hike prices and if you keep hiking in small doses, it wont make too much difference and take longer to achieve the budget deficit objectives.
So , just hike to the revolt number
Public/opposition/coalition will make noises ....let them
Now roll back , say 50% (which is exactly what u wanted in the first place)
Everyone is happy ...public thinks they managed to pressure the govt, Opposition also takes credit and coalition members also score brownie points
By now public is tired , they missed all those TV serial episodes , and its getting hot(weather)... Sunday is IPL final etc...
Yes , if above doesnt happen , then it is a black swan ie the public really refuse to get fooled into accepting a partially rolled back hike .(+/_ ??)
Also remember 30k crore disinvestment is planned(+)
Plus the QE3 expected in the presidential election year in the US.(+)
Eurozone also will turn on the inkjets(+)
Summer holidays ending...traders need to trade (+) ...they know nothing else.
+ is the( fundamental )ODDS that favor a 'bottom's up' situation.
There are others ..rupee , economic data etc
And then the technicals , of course ....... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #657 Posted: Sat May 26, 2012 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Here's nifty monthly chart |
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pkholla
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| Post: #658 Posted: Sat May 26, 2012 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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Ajay: thanks for excellent analysis of the situ! rgds, prakash holla
(PS I had threatened to post a summary of Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire: the problems are 1) written < 1800, 2) really long winded, 3) 2000 pages: I need to live that long to just read the damn thing!) |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #659 Posted: Sat May 26, 2012 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | Ajay: thanks for excellent analysis of the situ! rgds, prakash holla
(PS I had threatened to post a summary of Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire: the problems are 1) written < 1800, 2) really long winded, 3) 2000 pages: I need to live that long to just read the damn thing!) |
No issues ... take your time ! Now we have a reason to live longer !!! |
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vinay28
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| Post: #660 Posted: Sat May 26, 2012 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| I think diesel and cooking gas price hike will come first and a bit of rollback in petrol price on the excuse that INR has improved by then |
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