iCharts Discussions

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[vinay28]

sam, which one would you think will be more accurate as far as your estimates are concerned, levels or time period?

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[ajayhkaul]

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[vinay28]

Important Global Events / Data Points due this week are :

May 31st : US GDP (QoQ - Annualised), Q4 FY12 India GDP data;
June 1st : US Unemployment rates, China PMI Manufacturing data, India Export-Import data (YoY).

[rk_a2003]

Thanks Vinay for the event calendar. However, posting elaborate event calendar followed by some sign post commentary.

Event Calendar

Period : 28th May – 1st June

US
• 30 May – MBA Mortgage Applications
• 30 May – Pending Home sales MoM
• 31 May – Initial Jobless Claims

India
• 31 May – Annual GDP Govt Estimate YoY %
• 31 May – Quarterly GDP YoY%
• 1 June – Exports YoY%
• 1 June – Imports YoY%

China
• 1 June – PMI Manufacturing
• 1 June – HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Euro Zone
• 1 June - PMI Manufacturing
• 1 June – Eurozone Unemployment Rate



Period : 4th – 8th June
US
• Factory Oders (4 June)
• Initial Jobless Claims (7 June)
• Trade Balance (8 June)

India
• India May Manufacturing PMI (1-4 June)
• India May Services PMI (5-6 June)

China
• China HSBC Services PMI (5 June)

Euro Zone
• PMI Composite (5 June)
• PMI Services (5 June)
• Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (5 June)



Greek exit from EU is becoming almost certain. Spain is fast moving towards Greek path. Economic reports from Japan, China, Germany, Eurozone and the UK underscored growing concern about a deeper slowdown in the global economy. The OECD forecast that global growth would fall to 3.4% this year from 3.6% in 2011, before accelerating to 4.2% in 2013. Separately, the World Bank lowered its estimate of GDP growth in China's to 8.2% from 8.4% earlier.

[vinay28]

thanks rk, welcome back

[rk_a2003]

[vinay28]

saw my two charts in this thread?

[ajayhkaul]

[ajayhkaul]

Thanks RK for the calendar of events.

And ,for skeptics,here's how the events can be incorporated in trading :Yes it is the BIG picture view :

"......Focus on the bigger picture, not just the headlines.

One of the best favors a trader can do for themselves is stay appraised of the bigger picture.

There are plenty of places where you can get calendars online, and check for the stories that might impact the market. The longer you watch these fundamentals, the more likely you are to be able to distinguish which ones might bring higher volatility and potential trading opportunities.

Avoid developing tunnel vision and focusing only on the things you think could be important.

Watch for forecasts and estimates on reports – these are just as important as the actual news release and can be key in trying to gauge possible market direction.

Good news and bad news are relative to expectations...."

[ajayhkaul]

[ajayhkaul]

Trading news and events : Ref calendar provided by RK/Vinay

Expectations vs actual :Looking for CATALYSTS :(report below is from ET)

"The relative stability in asset markets largely reflects the lack of any real news on the key risks in Greece and the peripheral euro area," Barclays Capital analysts said in a note.

"We would view any relief in asset markets as fleeting, however, with uncertainty likely to remain high as Greeks head to the polls and with the issue of credible bank recapitalizations in the euro area still unresolved," they said.

Greece's pro-bailout conservatives are leading ahead of a national parliamentary election on June 17 that may determine whether the country remains in the euro zone, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.

The euro eased 0.2 per cent to $1.2479 on Wednesday, hovering near its 23-month low of $1.2461 reached on Tuesday, when it also touched a four-month low against the yen of 98.94 yen.

The euro's plight hoisted the dollar index, measured against a basket of major currencies, to its highest since September 2010 of 82.61 on Tuesday, helping to drag down dollar-sensitive commodities. A weaker euro suppressed gold, which fell 1 per cent on Tuesday.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell 0.8 per cent to 279.74 on Tuesday, after touching a 20-month low of 279.49.

In Spain, new bonds will soon be issued to fund ailing lenders and indebted regions, fuelling fears the country's refinancing stresses could spin out of control and push its borrowing costs beyond the 7 per cent level seen as unsustainable.

Sovereign debt yields exceeding that level have prompted other troubled euro zone economies to seek a global bailout.

The European Commission will set out its economic strategy for the euro zone on Wednesday, spelling out measures to balance growth with unpopular fiscal consolidation that will be particularly pointed for Spain and Italy.

Investors are looking for fresh catalysts to provide direction at least for the near-term as they wait for Greece's election.

One possible catalyst is US May jobs data due on Friday, which will help investors gauge the strength of the US economic recovery. Employers are expected to have added 150,000 new workers to their payrolls, according to a Reuters survey, after adding 115,000 in April, the fewest in six months.

China's official manufacturing data is also due on Friday. US crude futures eased 0.1 per cent at $90.71 a barrel, while Brent futures also eased 0.1 per cent at $106.63 a barrel.

Asian credit markets were stable, with the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index barely changed from Tuesday.

RK , what about the Baltic Dry ?

[ajayhkaul]

Market is on tenterhooks ..... and like a coiled spring ready to make a major move ......based on CATALYST events in this week and next.

Expectation vs Actual...how is it going to be ?