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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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Post: #676  Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:33 am Post subject: |
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| Here we go Ajay .Latest BDI attached. Hard to see any improvement .Especially if we consider the quantum of paper infused in to the system. No co relation or possibility of it in near future.Attaching 5 year and 6 months charts . |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #677 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 11:19 am Post subject: |
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RK ... with your artistry , how about superimposing the nifty on the BDI for equal periods (say last 2 years) ?
Is there a co-relation visible ? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #678 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| BDI-Nifty fusion. seems worth a try for bottom fishing |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #679 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | BDI-Nifty fusion. seems worth a try for bottom fishing |
Thanks for the ‘Fusion’ Vinay.It appear to be correlated.
Hi! All!
Any Ideas to find out where do equilibrium occurs and reversal starts while the demand is spiraling down?
All of us know that at some point it bottoms out and the revival starts. How to find out that?!.
I am not just talking about BDI.I am talking about Demand - Supply dynamics in general. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #680 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel BDI bottom is over |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #681 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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Also watchout for Rupee - $ to reach 58.Then invest and relax.You may expect atleast 25% returns.  |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #682 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay/RK ...does the fusion chart show that BDI is a leading indicator ? Your views?
Vinay if BDI is leading and has bottomed out then we can expect the Nifty to rise incorporating the events/hiccups as it rises.
Plus the rupee slide to the bottom ...... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #683 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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if BDI is an index of raw material transport, it is ahead of finished goods and hence manufacturers's output, results, etc., right?
I wonder whether they give break-up of countrywise import/export data because that will give indication of which countries to invest in. I am sure Funds know everything. I am saying this because, you will notice that, even if it is a leading indicator, nifty (and other markets) don't lag it much, which means funds have good enough advance knowledge and research to get in or out in time.
The only leveller (smoothening out effect), if I may, is financial and other services industries. |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #684 Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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Sure they do ..I mean the funds with info on import/export data.
For now will monitor BDI closely and see what we get.. |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #685 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | BDI-Nifty fusion. seems worth a try for bottom fishing |
Thanks for the ‘Fusion’ Vinay.It appear to be correlated.
Hi! All!
Any Ideas to find out where do equilibrium occurs and reversal starts while the demand is spiraling down?
All of us know that at some point it bottoms out and the revival starts. How to find out that?!.
I am not just talking about BDI.I am talking about Demand - Supply dynamics in general. |
Its the GDP data.
The maths(formula) is here:the demand /supply is built in the equation
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp#axzz1wTkJFlMV
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/199.asp#axzz1wTkJFlMV
Various governments across the world take stimulus steps/tinker with interest rates and kick start a demand /supply cycle that builds up over time and we can see the impact only as a reflection in a clutch of stats and finally the rate of change of GDP QoQ.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG
http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/default.aspx
Look at the GDP of Indonesia and then look at the rise and rise of the stock market.
Our GDP is stalling/sliding and so is the market.
The leading indicators of revival such as the stock markets(anticipatory), BDI(actual).....etc. |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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| Post: #686 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks for the inputs Ajay! Will get back to you with more questions? may be at the weekend. |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #687 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | Thanks for the inputs Ajay! Will get back to you with more questions? may be at the weekend. |
Sure , I am the eternal learner ... |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #688 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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Manipulation of data and markets :
This is a subject of concern for all .We desperately want to rely on some info/data/charts.
However accuracy is an illusion, manipulation is rampant.
Government messes with GDP , IIP data , maybe to prevent the stock market from tanking ahead of a disinvestment.
Chartists depend on money flow ,volume and other data to take decisions (aka speculation) . However its GIGO ( garbage in garbage out). Wherever money is at stake, someone will pull a fast one. We know what promoters do , IPO (read earlier posts) ..etc
For the mathematically inclined ,see the attached paper.
If this kind of maths short-circuits your brain cells , just look at the summary and see how you can beat the manipulators at their game. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #689 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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ajay, this is a 2003 paper much before algo and htf came. there must be more latest on this.
By the way, accuracy is an inference....like fatherhood!  |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #690 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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accuracy is an inference....like fatherhood!
Classic Vinay!
Yes ,the 2003 dated paper implies Manipulation is not a recent phenomenon and its only getting more sophisticated ? |
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