iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

Key data releases for the month of June

June 01
US Non farm payrolls: expected to come in at 150K in May compared to prior reading of 115K

US ISM manufacturing & UK, EZ, China & Switzerland manufacturing PMI for May

June 05
RBA & BOC policy: The Central Banks are expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% & 1.0% respectively

June 06
ECB policy: ECB is expected to keep the refinance rate unchanged at 1.0%

EZ Q1 GDP: Market awaits the preliminary estimate. The advance estimate reported 0.0% QoQ growth

June 07
BoE policy: BoE is expected to keep the bechmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

June 08
BoE Japan Q1 GDP: Market awaits the final estimates of Japan's Q1 GDP, which reported 4.1% QoQ (annualized) growth

June 12
India April IIP: Industrial production for March reported 3.50% YoY decline

June 14
India WPI: market awaits the WPI inflation reading for May, which came in at 7.23% YoY in April

SNB policy: SNB is expected to remain on pause in the June policy meeting

June 15
BoJ policy: BoJ is expected to keep the target rate unchanged at 0.10%

US University of Michigan confidence indicator for June: The prior reading came in at 79.3

June 18
RBI policy: RBI is expected keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 8.0%

June 20
FOMC rate: The US Fed is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged at near zero levels

June 30
India FY2012 Q4 BoP: India registered a BoP deficit of USD 12.8 bn in Q3 FY2012

[ajayhkaul]

[ajayhkaul]

Thanks a ton Vinay ..... events and expectations .....super !

[vishvesh2001]

Ha Ha. Every one in a quagmire. It is better for them to leave any of the rates untouched till we have a decision on Greece. Good strategy.

Need to wait and watch in Aug /Sept.

[ajayhkaul]

Germany is refusing to print ! and the euro crisis remains...

"....The German Council of Economic Experts has developed a creative way around the European debt crisis. They call their proposal the “European Redemption Pact” (source: The Telegraph, May 29, 2012).

Under the proposal, a certain percentage of a troubled eurozone country’s public debt would qualify to be placed in a special fund. From this fund, Germany would issue joint debt, so that the country would enjoy the low interest rates paid by the stronger northern countries of the European Union.

To back this debt, Germany is asking that these countries put up 20% collateral. The concept is similar to that of a bank; they will be more than happy to provide you with a loan if you have assets they can seize, just in case you don’t pay.

The assets Germany wants from these countries is either their foreign currency reserves—like U.S. Treasuries or gold bullion.

This is not the first time that stronger eurozone countries have offered to help countries like Greece, Spain and Italy during the European debt crisis. China and Britain offered to provide money to these countries in exchange for their gold bullion. These countries flat out refused, opting instead to hold onto their gold bullion.

This solution will most likely not work, because these countries will not part with their gold bullion. But the fact that it is being proposed proves that gold bullion is money.

The countries in distress in this European debt crisis have some of the largest reserves of gold bullion in the world.

Imagine how desperate these countries are to rid themselves of their debt…but not at the cost of parting with their gold bullion!

The reason they won’t sell their gold bullion is because they understand the value of gold bullion, which has stood the test of time for 5,000 years. And the reason Germany purposed this offer is because it recognizes the value of gold bullion.

The reason Britain and China were willing to help these troubled countries is because they too recognize the value of gold bullion.

There are those who dismiss gold bullion as nothing but a useless metal. However, when it comes to issues of money, gold bullion is part of the agreements and reserves of countries around the world...'

[ajayhkaul]

[rk_a2003]

"The countries in distress in this European debt crisis have some of the largest reserves of gold bullion in the world."


That’s the exact reason for the US and Leading banks (Who were short in gold) keep on attacking these countries regarding their troubled economy,hoping to capture their gold. Every powerful country running behind their Gold .How long can they hold?!

[vishvesh2001]

Assuming you are able to go behind the gold and also get it would lead to the indebtedness of the country ceding the gold reserves. But the beneficiary country is also obligated to carry the liability of the entire population and its growth of the weakened country for the future and ultimately you start pumping money and start bailing them out. This becomes a vicious circle.

This clearly proves that there has to be an equitable distribution of wealth among countries other wise this imbalance can never be rested for ever.

Any views!!

[ajayhkaul]

[vishvesh2001]

I wish the president race of the world would think like Vishvesh2001 which will make the world a better place to live in.

I fully agree with what you say Ajay Ji . Probably I have not been able to get my point straight. What I meant is this hoarding of gold will lead you no where and ultimately sometime in the future these strong countries would be sitting in different meetings and discussing how to bail weakened countries indireclty through their accumulation of Gold itself. Like what goes up comes down which you have in way pointed out saying " leading to their own destruction"

Cheers

[ajayhkaul]

I got you loud and clear vishvesh.....but that is because you are from the land of ahimsa.

I hope you get the drift .....these are barbarians we are talking about.

[rk_a2003]

".....Could the government have avoided the slump in economic growth?

We could not have avoided a slowdown since the whole world, including China, slowed down. However, the slowdown has been more severe than was originally thought. The problem with the 6.5 % growth for 2011-12 is that it is an average of four quarters where there is a slowdown quarter over quarter.

We have yet to see a turnaround in the quarterly growth. Some of the steps we have taken will soon reflect in quarterly performance and help economy turn the corner. We may not reach 7.5 % growth in 2012-13 but we can do better than in 2011-12. In retrospect, one can always think of things one could have done better.

The important thing is to take all corrective steps needed now to reverse the decline in the rate of investment. The decline is partly because of global developments, which we cannot control. However, it is also because of local constraints and we must take steps on a priority to deal with these problems."

'Its the GDP ,guys' that determines the market direction.
READ MORE :
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/too-much-spotlight-on-problems-things-to-look-up-soon-montek-singh-ahluwalia/articleshow/13788765.cms

[rk_a2003]

Who said Global Economy is not on Steroids?!

China announced rate cut prior to announcement of quarterly GDP numbers. It triggered negative sentiment (expecting a weak GDP number) among world markets. This is proactive management.Australia also announced rate cut to support their domestic economy.

Earlier India announced its quarterly GDP growth which declined for the eighth consecutive quarter in January-March, hitting a nine-year low of 5.3%.Now RBI is considering rate cut.

On Friday Market went up in the last hour or so led by banking stocks. This indicates a bright possibility of rate cut by RBI.

China's rate cut is considered as the 171st simulative policy initiative that has been announced in last 9 months.

Wait for another steroid dose from RBI not bothering about high inflation. Indian markets already got stimulated in anticipation. Can we say the Global Economy is not on Steroids?!

[vishvesh2001]

No doubt they are on steriods. As far as India is concerned rate cuts are imminent due to slow economic growth. Look global crude oil prices have fallen especially with Brent Crude prices slipping sharply . In fact the low oil prices has eased the pressure on inflation to a large extent as Oil prices have a direct impact on inflation.

More than injecting steriods , Indian economy tends to correct and remedy itself on it's own due to better financial regulations.

Any other healthy view please!!

[rk_a2003]

".........Gone are the days of a market driven by “efficient market theory,” “fundamental value” – or even simple “supply and demand.”

Now it’s at the mercy of:
Dalal Street’s insider trading and double-dealing.
The Federal Reserve’s(RBI) interest rate and money supply manipulations.
Global central banks and their self-serving Ponzi schemes.
Energy cartels’ price-fixing, collusion, and supply constrictions.
The Media’s blatant agenda-driven spin.
Government regulation that batters commerce to its knees.


“The key to trading for big, consistent gains in the market… Is to see that market for what it really is: Waves of capital being driven by a matrix of manipulations, misconceptions, and out-and-out lies.”

Today’s market is entirely governed by the continuous, combined effect of dozens of corrupting influences. The ‘free market’ is virtually dead.”


Media play on earnings : A great example of this is the way analysts manipulate earnings estimates to make fast, easy money for themselves.

Here’s how it works: Let’s say that well-known firm ABC Capital takes a long position in XYZ Widgets...

Then, over the course of a quarter, they ratchet down their earnings estimates for the company.

Not enough to trigger a sell-off – but just enough to create a gap between investors’ expectations and reality.

When other firms analyze the same numbers and see that ABC’s estimates are being downplayed – they know the fix is in.

So they also quietly take long positions in XYZ, and begin to understate their own earnings estimates for it.

This snowball effect forms a very credible-looking earnings “consensus” among the analysts.

And what happens when XYZ Widgets’ quarterly earnings report beats these “expectations” by 50%?

The stock soars – and the firms in on the hustle get paid off big-time.


“As a quarter develops, they’re changing [earnings estimates]. Before earnings come out, there’s a new consensus, based on lowered expectations...

Nobody really knows whether they’re giving lowered expectations in order to make the stock go up... Yet everybody is glued to earnings: ‘Did they beat expectations?’
But this is just one of the ways in which Street fuels the mass hallucination we’re all trying in vain to make money in.




indicators like P/E, MACD, moving averages, slow stochastic, price-to-sales, price-to-book, etc....

Are all being misused by 99% of self-serving analysts.

“And the biggest lie out there is the volume indicator,”
When shares of a stock are trading in good numbers, and trending up in volume, investors take that as a sign that the broader market agrees with them on the company’s fundamentals – and sees their shares as undervalued.

But that’s a major trap created :


“You’ve got derivatives and ETFs affecting volume – you’ve got hedgers that can manipulate volume.

And behind the scenes, you have traders and arbitragers who are trading against the stock! And some of them are doing it with options, so the volume gets skewed up.

All of those things make volume a bogus tool, unless you can track exactly who’s trading what.”
Nowadays, if you can’t clearly see:
ALL the factors driving trading volume – and what they mean…
The combined effects of these myriad factors, in their proper ratios…
How the volume equation adds up to a “good” or “bad” investment…


You could misread the signals you rely on and end up burned. ........"