iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

Ajay, to answer your 2nd question first, it is possible to predict on daily basis and also on short/medium/long term basis. A lot of astrologers and "financial astrologers" post their predictions regularly. The important thing to remember is that astrology should be followed ONLY for traits. People tend to expect too much and ask all kinds of questions and astrologers also try to stretch it and in the process bring disrepute to it.

I don't believe it is possible to predict scripwise but sectorwise, yes. For example, with saturn in libra now for about 2.5 years, one could say it is good for anything dark coming from the ground such as oil, coal, iron ore, engineering, electrical goods, etc.

Some even predict based on colour of goods e.g. they say a given day or period is good for white colour e.g. cotton, silver, etc. Even the chinese do it.

As regards your 1st question, you will notice that I have started doing it for the last 10 days or so, by indicating up/down days and I have started trading accordingly. I would like to believe that I have been fairly accurate about it. Only thing is I look for buying/selling signals from charts. But that applies to index only. I am not clear about sectorwise. The important thing to remember is

Up - either closing above the previous day's close (by a small or large margin) OR if the previous day was downtrending day that developed bearish sentiment for the next day then even closing a little negative is fine because it indicates an UP sentiment.

Down - vice versa

There is another indicator and that is Rahu kal. This is a period when market can do differently as compared to the trend prior to it. It can also be volatile. A lot of people don't make a new purchase of any kind or don't sign any agreement during this period. It is a 1.5 hour period changing everyday as given below

SUNDAY – 16.30 TO 18.00, MONDAY – 07.30 TO 9.00, TUESDAY – 15.00 TO 16.30, WEDNESDAY – 12.00 TO 13.30, THURSDAY – 13.30 TO 15.00,
FRIDAY – 10.30 TO 12.00, SATURDAY - .9.00 TO 10.30

[rk_a2003]

Vinay

Initially I thought that I should prepare a detailed answer. After going through your later posts I came to a conclusion that it’s not necessary.
Just a brief presentation should be enough substantiating my view point.
As you are aware that Indian Rupee is on a floating rate whose exchange rate is derived by the market. Rupee value is influenced by multiple factors like

• Inflation
As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies

• Interest Rates
A higher interest rates offer good returns compare to other countries. It will result in the foreign capital flow into the country. The currency value would not be affected only based on the interest; it is impacted based on the other conditions like inflation or world economic situation.

• Foreign Funds Movement
These funds come in and go out in a cycle effecting rupee value. Their movement is decided by multiple factors…. Global scenario and various economic factors.

• Government Deficit
The government finances are in a bad shape and the combined central and state government deficit has stubbornly stayed around 10 per cent of GDP. If it is high deficit investors lose faith in this economy.

• Political Uncertainty and Corruption.
Political uncertainty leads to policy numbness and corruption obstruct development.

• Oil factors
India is a major importer of oil and the valuation of Indian money gets easily affected by the increase in the prices of the crude oil. It can further result in spreading inflation in an economy.

I am definitely not presenting this brief description for you… only for the sake of readers who are not aware of these factors.

Now let us look at the exchange rate of $-Rs over a period of time.
1980-----7.89
1990----17.50
1993----31.26
1998----41.33
2000----45.00
2009----48.76
2010----45.33
2011----53.55

Refer the book The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective by an economic historian Angus Madison ,

India had the world's largest economy from the first to eleventh century, and in the eighteenth century, with a (32.9%) share of world GDP.

In the first century to 11th century (28.9%) in 1000 AD and in 1700 AD with (24.4%).

You may observe that major devaluation of rupee is from 1990 to 1993. We can link this to the major Forex crisis we faced in and around 1992 during P.V.Narasimharao Govt. Subsequently our Forex resources stabilized and improved a lot too. Then why our rupee is not recovered?

Rupee was destroyed over 60 years. During these years….Our population rose to 1 billion .Majority of it is young and vibrant. This is considered as invaluable resource. Industrial production rose by 10 times, Agricultural production rose by 20 times GDP rising around 8.5%.

Then why 90% depreciation in rupee?! This is a question being raised by each and every ordinary angered and distressed citizen of India.


This is altogether a different discussion. Sorry for drifting.

Coming back to my view point… Rupee is depreciating continuously and that was influenced by so many factors including Govt.and RBI policies. Within that fundamental movement. It is the FII’s fund flow which dictates highs and lows. Let me clear it….. If rupee moves from 7 to 17 that was influenced by all the fundamental factors. But whether rupee go down to 17.90 or move up to 16 will be decided majorly by FII fund flows during that period and in turn Equity market will be influenced. After finding a new level of rupee influenced by other fundamental factors it is the FII’s fund flow which plays a major role in deciding upper and bottom range of the rupee.

I am just banking on it to identify equity market bottomed out range.

The last Para must be enough for you. Sorry! I could not resist from venting out my anger that’s why all other write up came out.

[psalm]

[vinay28]

"You rightly said rupee value is influenced by multiple factors like "

Hey rk, you did not read my post correctly. In fact I said I doubt that these factors affect rupee.

And venting your anger for what or on whom?

Sam - I don't argue with scientists and others who talk against anything without first understanding it. It's a futile excercise to argue with anyone with fixed ideas and beliefs and wihtout open mind. I am open to all ideas. I too am scientifically oriented but always go to the root of the issue before accepting it or bebunking it. I too have many a arguments against astrology as prectised today. That's why I specifically mentioned that it should be used for TRAITS only. To that extent, you will not believe how accurate it can be. But I don't wish to force my concepts on anyone. It's simply an issue of take it or leave it.

But then, one should go by one's beliefs anyway, till proved wrong.

[psalm]

But then, one should go by one's beliefs anyway, till proved wrong.

Agreed...

[ajayhkaul]

There are things that we know .....ie known knowns

There are things we know that we dont know..... ie known unknowns

there are things we don't know we don't know .... ie unknown unknowns

Just keep your mind open......

[psalm]

Could there be something like an "UNKNOWN KNOWNS"?????

Are you open to that idea as well Ajay????

[rk_a2003]

"Hey rk, you did not read my post correctly. In fact I said I doubt that these factors affect rupee.

And venting your anger for what or on whom?".

I with draw my comment "you rightly said" and editing it.

Cool down Vinay! My anger is not on any person... and for what?... It's already explained.

By the way I too second views of Sam on Astrology excluding Homeopathy.

[vinay28]

as confucius said

he who knows and knows that he knows, follow him
he who knows and knows not that he knows, counsel him (I don't exactly remember this one)
he who knows not and knows that he knows not, teach him,
he who knows not and knows not that he knows not, shun him.

[psalm]

Yea....NOSE.....Sorry SNOW....


Very confusious.......

[ajayhkaul]

[ssrivatsa]

he who knows and knows that he knows, is wise; follow him
he who knows and knows not that he knows, is asleep; wake him
he who knows not and knows that he knows not, is teachable; teach him
he who knows not and knows not that he knows not, is a fool; shun him.

That said, we would do best to bear in mind that all these guys - the wise, the guy asleep, the teachable and the fool - exist in each of us. They show up in varied intensity at various times. If we can train ourselves to spot them and regulate them in ourselves, we would stand to benefit immensely. Of course, when we encounter these traits in those who we deal with, it is better to deal with the specific character on display rather than characterize the person in very general terms... Cheers!

[ajayhkaul]

Super ... ssrivatsa !

[rk_a2003]

Srivatsa

You came up with a scientific application of Confucius famous quote which was often misused.

Glad to have you in this forum.

[vinay28]

welcome on board, ssrivasta. My memory is failing me!