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rk_a2003
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Post: #826  Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | The real attribution is that without a real growth, but after being promoted by way of extra printed money and still ongoing... the currency of US$ should have dropped in value as per paper work. However, the valuation of other currencies are so less, it doesn't even matter if in real US prints more $.
It shows the real confidence which the buyers have at this moment of time in different country's economy and ability to recover in comparison to the US. We are far, far from having the buyers interest. |
It is not that simple and straight forward. If India is having CAD, why can't it print its own money? For the fear of hyperinflation and devaluation of rupee in the world markets.
When US prints trillions of $ and infused in to the system why it was not devalued to that extent and how it is recovering to the pre QE levels now? when the trillions of money is still in the system.
That’s why Russian ruble post collapse of communism went to rubbish status? That’s why Ethiopian money doesn’t have any value. They lost the correlation of GDP and money in the system. Money is a simple replacement of barter system, introduced just for the convenience.
To be fair the money printed has to derive its value through GDP of that particular country. When Gold standard was abolished and fiat money was introduced there was no proper checks for this and the mere demand supply is deciding the exchange rates. Which itself is unfair.
It's not the confidence of the people or the real GDP that is giving strength to US $.It's deriving it's strength through financial and military manipulations and by forcing $ as world economic reserve, who ever opposed $ as world reserve; They were sabotaged.
Do you think? Timing of the QE tapering and Syrian war threat is just coincidental? Tell me one thing can any other country gets away with this scale of QE’s this easily? If any other country did this, by this time world must be using that currency as tissue paper.
CAD and regular imports of oil and gold inflated Indian rupee to this level where as our GDP growth rate is far better than US or UK. Look at Mac index which is somewhat fair way of assessing the value of the currency(PPP).It’s saying 22 rupees should get a $.Another 44 rupees devaluation is the outcome of unfair demand supply criteria and through manipulations. |
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apka
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| Post: #827 Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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What gives rupee's fair valuation as 22? If there is shortage of $ to repay import payments, we are finding out own valuation. Then how does book value matter when actual outstanding amounts are not fixed and growing due to unavailability of foreign currency. The govt says there is 6 months of foreign currency in reserves unlike 2 weeks in 1991. If the currency goes to 100, what then? it automatically becomes half. All this pep talk and numbers are far too linient on the face as presented to us than the real picture as to how quickly they can change.
1991 was saved by inflow of FII currency. 1997-2000 was saved by IT business supporting inward flow. But what today??
| Quote: | | That’s why Russian ruble post collapse of communism went to rubbish status? That’s why Ethiopian money doesn’t have any value. They lost the correlation of GDP and money in the system. Money is a simple replacement of barter system, introduced just for the convenience. |
Exactly right. What I see is the valuation is put and printed against Gold, Bond issued repayable with principal and fixed guaranteed interest (which adds to cost more) and printing of the money reduces the value as it is of the money as printing has it's cost too. A country can only progress and grow as much it's natural resources allow. A country like Zimbabwe is therefore lost in hyperinflation, while Oil rich countries can relax as they have by hardly leiving any taxation on the public. Because foreign currency inflow is plenty.
So, just like the share market as we trade against a margin (basically creating a debt), we run our economy. The day our natural resource go bust, so do we.
I am not an economist or have any special background of studies at higher level of economics. But I am sure I am thinking and considering the right elements of economy. Whoever created all this did so considering how slow the growth and how the population was back then.
Unfortunately and fortunately at the same, we have seen a millennium of changes, additions for ourselves. This must have not been anticipated by the economists, neither would have the world wars, natural disasters, etc. had been.
I actually wonder what makes Gold as valuable? What do we use it for? Show off, a luxury? It is not a necessity as an asset like a home is for survival and yet it is the most valuable, enough to print money against to run an economy. It all seems fictitious, as if to justify and balance out the debt valuation for money printed against gold to keep having it's price rising. Remember out of the blue silver started rising 3 years back. It was priced at below gold for 1kg weight and then it went to 75k or so I think.... And the reasons given is has industrial uses. Well didn't it before? And what now, it is in 40ks.
Probably I am ranting now, but all of this that we stand on is fragile as per me and sooner or later we will need a changeover / revamp and I'm afraid it would only come after a shock of collapse. It is why things only keep getting expensive. |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #828 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:57 am Post subject: |
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Now, there is no more gold standard Apka.It was removed long back, I suspect this act stamped the hegemony of US $.
Regarding value given to the gold.I agree with you broadly, but that is another pandora box.Let us not open it here. |
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beowulf
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| Post: #829 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:43 am Post subject: |
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What are your views on Real Estate (retail). Done see much of a crack there even though the balance sheet of listed RE cos is in tatters...
Once RE cracks, thats when the panic sets in...
Thanks,
Beo |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #830 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| beowulf wrote: | What are your views on Real Estate (retail). Done see much of a crack there even though the balance sheet of listed RE cos is in tatters...
Once RE cracks, thats when the panic sets in...
Thanks,
Beo |
As of now no specific view .I started accumulating DLF in cash.Not sure whether bottommed out or not ready to add on in further falls. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #831 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | As of now no specific view .I started accumulating DLF in cash.Not sure whether bottommed out or not ready to add on in further falls. |
rk, why do you run behind total chors? if at all you must invest then ibrealest or one bangalore firm (forgot name) is better. Incidentally, real estate is yet to crack, I feel, and they may go in total doldrums. |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #832 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:48 am Post subject: |
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The market is led by chors  .What to do?.Y0u are talking about Shobha Developers. I am not going to sit in DLF.I aim for 25-30% profit that's it. |
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
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| Post: #833 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:53 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | What gives rupee's fair valuation as 22? FE holdings enough for 7 months: If the currency goes to 100, what then?. |
Apka:
1 Purchasing parity value is determined by comparing costs in diff countries. Let us say, compare, a family of h/w/2k in Bombay <> Madrid. If it costs Bom couple Rs 50000 per month and Madrid couple E 5000 to run the household then PP value is E 1 = Rs 10. I suppose this is what is meant by "fair"
2 There is the famous McDonald hamburger test run by Economist magazine. This also says Re is grossly undervalued
3 Foreign exch reserves are held in foreign currency, then whatever $=Re HOW IT AFFECTS FE VALUE? It affects rupee value of FE holdings, so to go by your example, when $ = Re 100 then FE holdings will be 1.5 times what they are today IN RUPEE TERMS, but in FE same
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla |
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apka
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| Post: #834 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | As of now no specific view .I started accumulating DLF in cash.Not sure whether bottommed out or not ready to add on in further falls. |
rk, why do you run behind total chors? if at all you must invest then ibrealest or one bangalore firm (forgot name) is better. Incidentally, real estate is yet to crack, I feel, and they may go in total doldrums. |
yeh, when banking licenses are given to arm firms of real estate, what else would. |
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Andre
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| Post: #835 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:59 am Post subject: |
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Vinay....
Probably...Sobha...or Purva....Bnagalore based..real estate...Honest guys....
Regards,
| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | As of now no specific view .I started accumulating DLF in cash.Not sure whether bottommed out or not ready to add on in further falls. |
rk, why do you run behind total chors? if at all you must invest then ibrealest or one bangalore firm (forgot name) is better. Incidentally, real estate is yet to crack, I feel, and they may go in total doldrums. |
yeh, when banking licenses are given to arm firms of real estate, what else would. |
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pkholla
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| Post: #836 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:10 am Post subject: |
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| Andre wrote: | | Vinay.... Probably...Sobha...or Purva....Bangalore based..real estate...Honest guys.... Regards, |
I agree with Andre about Sobha. My binlaw changed his mind about villa purchase on airport road and just like that refund chq given. Also help in tracing $ payment from US to Sobha to Re refund in India to satisfy RBI about genuine repat claim! Run by ex Army Maj Gen.
Dont know about Purva but best to avoid Brigade Group!
Bangalore itself is today a lousy destination if you want to make money from real estate. Prices shot up without rhyme or reason for many years due to North Ind influx into speculative purchases. (My own property is worth per sqft what we paid for entire property) Now these same NIs are writing SAVDHAAN letters in papers warning about prices about to crash! |
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vinay28
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vinay28
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| Post: #838 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Andre wrote: | Vinay....
Probably...Sobha...or Purva....Bnagalore based..real estate...Honest guys....Regards, |
which one is owned by Kamats? Is it listed? |
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apka
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| Post: #839 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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| what about oberoi realty? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #840 Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:45 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | what about oberoi realty? |
apka, in general, you should NEVER invest in any real estate firm as ALL are chors. Hence you should only trade if and only if you identify the buy (or sell if in fut) correctly as it's a high beta sector. |
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