iCharts Discussions

[rk_a2003]

[chandrujimrc]

This is ok .RK

[vinay28]

I would love to stop doing anything if this letter I received was true!

[saumya12]

[vinay28]

[amexhui]

[vinay28]

rk, just in case you are bearish for a long time, have a look at BDI charts.

[rk_a2003]

Thanks for the charts Vinay. You must have seen my posts anticipating new highs for the markets after the ongoing correction.

But, However I am also not expecting a long term secular bull market for the reason that sovereign debt bubble is in the making and you know that nobody can anticipate the exact time of that bubble burst. We only can say that too shall happen.

[rk_a2003]

[vinay28]

according to one rumour, ETFs may sell 18B$ worth of stocks in emerging markets in coming days.

[ragwendra]

[rk_a2003]

Have you observed the Infy options game? Whatever yesterday premium was there in Infy in just OTM calls stay stand still even after a 5% up move in Infy cash.

I haven’t observed this on my own. One of my friend called and told me about this. I made a postmortem about this. My friend even said that some of the calls went down and hit the lower circuits (where as Infy cash moved up 5%)

The bottom line is market (read as market makers) is not going to let you make money from a well-known and almost confirmed event.

[paa]

I bot 1lot 3650ce+ 2600pe @ 45 and sold at 7

[rk_a2003]

FII’s declared their intention with Thursday action and confirmed it with Friday follow up. In near term market is poised to go up and retest the recent highs and subsequently may break out. This is happening despite the high inflation and the beginning of QE tapering from Jan onwards which may increase in subsequent months if all is well with U.S data.

But moving forward there are few stumble blocks for upward movement. The 1st one is rupee devaluation. As tapering goes on $ is bound to get strengthened and rupee also may get devalued to the extent of regained $ strength. By that time FII’s may find liquidity crunch and we may enter in to another bout of rupee devaluation spike and simultaneous relative dip in equity markets.

2nd one is Parliament elections which may throw a hung parliament which is a hate situation for foreigners hence negative for equity markets. The sentiment may not improve till some sort of viable alliances were made. This view on 2nd factor is on broader terms, we may get more clarity as we near the elections. We will revisit this point whenever new aspects unfold.

However the 1st and 2nd points may not necessarily happen in the same chronological order.

[saumya12]

Agreed in totality, with you RK, particularly 2nd point.
I am of the belief that we can see 4500 levels in 2014.

Now some will ask for the basis of my this opinion.

OK will post some charts, bombshell in other words, at the right time.