|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
The Market Mastermind ! |
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
Post: #946  Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:49 am Post subject: |
 |
|
RK: you are right. especially as monsoon was anyway predicted as finishing @ 93% of normal. in fact monsoon HAS revived and water reservoirs are filling up fast, roads are flooded, Bombay locals are affected, trees are being uprooted and a positive news in this sector (eg july total rainfall will be > normal!) may give a chance to big bulbuls like RJ and FIIs to take NF up another notch!
Prakash Holla
A small reminder how things can change dramatically on weather front!
By 10th (?) July 1974, the monsoon had failed badly, clear sunny skies, panic situation in Bombay. Water supply to society once in 3 days, 200 ltr drums in demand, water supply to tenants for 1 hr/day. "Please send non-essential members of family to muluk" My father was about to drive my 2 sisters and me to the airport the next morning when the heavens opened up and didnt stop pouring for 1 week. I think Bombay ended with a surplus that year! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
|
| Post: #947 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:43 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well, market again recorded new highs.
Puts are dominant in the system and sensing no conviction in market up moves market players must be taking short positions through out the day and covering them in the absence of any fall at the end ,thus market creeping up few points with the help of short covering.
This is the order of the day from past few days.
How long this is going to continue?... who knows??...... It's not up to you and me to decide. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #948 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:58 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| rk_a2003 wrote: | Well, market again recorded new highs.
Puts are dominant in the system and sensing no conviction in market up moves market players must be taking short positions through out the day and covering them in the absence of any fall at the end ,thus market creeping up few points with the help of short covering.
This is the order of the day from past few days.
How long this is going to continue... who knows?...... It's not up to you and me to decide. |
rk, here's something u should know. major large players (FIIs) started selling about 10 days ago but were also hedging thru options, which they often do. that's why I also sold mcx and tata sponge, lukily a bit later. but since Russia-Ukraine erupted after downing of Malaysian plane, a group of new FIIs started pouring in money at such high levels (including above all time highs) out desperation as if there was no tmrw. just see the rise in tata companies, mcx, etc., to name a few, in just last 10 days. so now, the game of rotation is going on; rotation amongst FIIs. if true, u can imagine what will happen when the crescendo of a symphony ends....... pindrop silence as the brain freezes.
as an old saying goes - when elephants fight, only the ants die. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #949 Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2014 8:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Indian Stock Market Valuation - Another Perspective |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #950 Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2014 9:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | Indian Stock Market Valuation - Another Perspective |
hmm... would love to have a chart or diagram which draws a comparison with everything like inflation levels, fiscal deficit, cad position, debt position, debt ratio, IIP, NPAs, etc. to give a "% risk" involved for the investments for the last few years. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #951 Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Indian Stock Market Valuation - Another Perspective |
hmm... would love to have a chart or diagram which draws a comparison with everything like inflation levels, fiscal deficit, cad position, debt position, debt ratio, IIP, NPAs, etc. to give a "% risk" involved for the investments for the last few years. |
not being a CA, I don't understand these things.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
|
| Post: #952 Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Nifty reached these levels ONCE THE UPTREND STRATED.
1000 to 2000 in 20 months
2000 to 4000 in 19 months
4000 to 6000 in 11 months
(from 6+k to 2.5 k and then to 6K..took 33 months)
6000 to 8000 in 08 months
8000 to 1000 in ?? months?
Provided we assume that the uptrend to reach 10000 is already in place and there is no substantial correction from 8000 to lower levels. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #953 Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| one year chart of Baltic dry index. it has doubled since july. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
|
| Post: #954 Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:35 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This leg of correction can be attributed to Cabinet approval for disinvestment in SAIL.ONGC...etc.
A whooping 40000 crores are going to be sucked out of the stock market in the first phase of disinvestment.This amount is never going to come back in to eqity markets.It will drain out the liquidity up to that extent.
In case FII's refrained from going against the dampened sentiment.....Then the upside will be capped for some time....in that case what will be the down side limit.? . |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
doctorshah
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jul 2011
Posts: 95
|
| Post: #955 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
| rk according to another thread DII have already sold more then 40000 cr worth from dec so no point in sucking out that amount |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
|
| Post: #956 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
| doctorshah wrote: | | rk according to another thread DII have already sold more then 40000 cr worth from dec so no point in sucking out that amount |
Could be true Doctor Shah.But whenever disinvestment happens it dampens the bullish sentiment atleast on temporary basis(though disinvestment helps in cutting fiscal deficit thus good for the health of the economy).
We might also consider another important point.If PF funds are allowed to invest in to equity markets which is being actively considered by NDA.It could be a big boost.This decision not only compensate the disinvestment outflow but also may cause galloping of index.
I't not possible for us to know the exact dates when these things are going to happen but better to keep all these possibilities in mind. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #957 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
| rk, according to a recent study by Morgan Stanley, ratio of savings to GDP in India and retail investment in equity has bottomed out. savings will reach 50B$ in a few years and almost 20B$ of savings will come to equity. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #958 Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
As posted elsewhere, I feel there is a good chance that 30th rbi policy review will be good for banks. Banknifty may discount status-quo soon unless it has already done so. In the medium term though, rising interest rates globally and falling ones in India will create a never-happened-before situation and may cause severe confusion among FIIs leading to initial knee jerk flight of money.
I see no reason for rbi following suit with global central banks raising rates, which it has done since 1950. Now only the opposite will govern and that's why I call it an unprecedented situation. Incidentally, reducing rate will divert money from debt instruments to equity and commodities, which is good. The interest rate is not the only concern for global and Indian economy. Low oil prices, though apparently excellent for us from deficit point of view, may be due to slowing down of global economy and that may hurt our exports e.g. mainly IT and Pharma even as our oil imports grow. I feel time will soon come when we have to judiciously decide which sectors to divert our funds. If such an event unfolds, I am inclined to go all out for any profit making and dividend paying firm which has near 100% revenue from domestic sales. Incidentally, reducing rates will also hurt banks in medium/long term. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #959 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:49 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| rk_a2003 wrote: | Nifty reached these levels ONCE THE UPTREND STRATED.
1000 to 2000 in 20 months
2000 to 4000 in 19 months
4000 to 6000 in 11 months
(from 6+k to 2.5 k and then to 6K..took 33 months)
6000 to 8000 in 08 months
8000 to 1000 in ?? months?
Provided we assume that the uptrend to reach 10000 is already in place and there is no substantial correction from 8000 to lower levels. |
Though the number of instances are less in terms of the cycle of both the long and deep runs, but from your noted levels nifty has doubled twice in around 19-20 months and has run 50% up once in 11 months and now in 8 months.
Bullish run has actually picked up pace compared to previous times. It would be nice to have a comparative chart showing PE Ratio points when the run stopped and now.
Vinay you had mentioned the forward PE ratio before somewhere, can you refresh again where it stands now? And where it has been to in previous bull runs? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #960 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka, forward pe is still around 16, the last time I saw. earnings are expected to double in 2 years and so the index. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
