iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

"...I have also seen short-term breadth going up throughout the recent decline...."

That's a good confirmation. By the way, the cash purchase of much over a lac crores in the past is at average nifty spot of 4950 ........ if it's of any help.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

but vinay... DII are still selling and FII have been buying in cash since several weeks now... wouldnt they want to avg down their purchases at lower level now.. cash buyers are happy the more lower it goes

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

apka, I am not talking about weeks but months/year. Also, if average price is 4950, what lower levels are you talking about for averaging?

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

i did not understand for multiyears avg is 4950 in cash buying you are saying ?

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

yes apka, at least for a year.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

dicy.. they are in profit of 700 points.. they could sell anytime.. Neutral

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

no apka, these are mostly medium/long only funds and the long only funds look beyond 5 years.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:35 pm Post subject:

Splendid!!! I was ready for this and was waiting for it since days. Of course, being ready is one thing and actually executing the plan perfectly is another thing Very Happy

In any case, I somehow managed to exit the bull call spread (at not so good price) and bought NOV 5700 puts. I exited the bull call spread trade with a loss of about Rs. 1750 per lot. Bought the 5700 puts @ 103.85.

Both short-term & medium-term breadth are strongly heading down. I expect the trend to continue down for a while now. I have aligned myself with it and will continue to monitor the breadth charts and decide on further action. The bullish trade I have closed was against the medium term breadth which had started to go down when I initiated the trade. This trade is now with the medium term breadth.

I am not sure and don't really care where/when/why market will turn up again. I will decide the probabilities based on breadth and will try and align with it. I am very curious to see how soon medium term breadth bottoms out as that will give a good clue as to the health of the uptrend. If medium term breadth bottoms out quickly (as in August) then it will be time to align with the uptrend at that point as it could mean the uptrend would resume. If medium term breadth stays down and short term breadth gets to the top then it will be time to continue to be short.

One thing is clear, things are pretty much broken and uptrend will face serious resistance from here if it resumes too quickly. It is probably time to hedge my positional long stocks, I will decide on it on Monday.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Made to order!

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:57 pm Post subject:

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Indeed ST. Pl see my somewhat contra posts under "running with the wolves" and "nifty view for Nov."

That's why I wondered aloud about leading indicators. In any case, even if nifty reverses sharply, I am sure you will get to know from your chart in 1-2 days and thus preventing any damage.

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:25 pm Post subject:

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

"BTW why do you consider RSI a leading indicator (you mentioned in the morning)? It is one of the most lagging oscillators. All price based indicators will lag more or less. The leading indicators I know of are Fibs, EWs, WWs, some of Gann stuff. There could be many others but I am not familiar."

Traditionally, oscillators (apart from those mentioned by you, some of which are actually patterns) have been considering as leading indicators due to their ability to show (a) overbought/sold levels and (b) divergences. Isn't it?

Obviously there are other leading indicators in fundamental aspects too, such as inflation, unemployment data, consumer confidence, etc. One of the most leading I feel is baltic freight index.

Anyway, as long as you get timely signals for an action, any indicator is good enough. And yes, breadth is a leading one.