iCharts Discussions

[opportunist]

Dear all,

Starting from today a thread on some of the trades I have been undertaking for sometime now.

Let me start with a just concluded trade with silver mini.

Entry date: 9th June 2017
Type of trade: Sell SilverM Future
Entry price: 39858 (Stop Loss : 40800 )
Target: 38900
Target reached on 13th June 2017 (SL on target day: 40448)
Total points gained: 1758
Profit on 1 Lot of SilverM = 1758x5=Rs.8790
Margin required on 1 Lot of SilverM = Rs.12,000 (approx)
ROI =73%

One can re-enter SilverM today again at around 38900 with SL as 39820 and target 37400.

Regards,
Oppo

[amitagg]

Pls pls do everything but never calculate ROI in this manner . It is technically logical and practically absurd

It has to be done in total amount trading capital available - 1L or 10L or 1cr or 10cr.....now it is up to you how many trades u can find and deploy capital into one trades.......there would be finer better ways which informed people know as well.

Good luck!

[amitagg]

And yes Thanks for the wonderful idea of starting this thread... Would be of immense utility for members!

[opportunist]

Thanks Amit for your observation. I do not agree with it though Anyways each to himself.

Looking forward to valuable comments from fellow ichartians from time to time.

Commo market opens. SilverM at around 38721. No change in Stop Loss which remains at 39820.

No big overnight gaps/surprises.

Regards,
Oppo

[amitagg]

Yes it's (silver) down

I am short gold 28750 stop 29000 target 28500

Can someone post chart of gold/ silver ratio

[opportunist]

Hi all,

Good Morning. SilverM continues bearish. Currently around 38390. Setting Stop Loss today at 38848. Target - around 37900.


To remind all my entry was at 38920.


Regards,
Oppo

[opportunist]

Good Morning all,

SilverM June 2017 continues to be bearish and hovering around 38230. Stop Loss may be brought down to 38700.

May note that profit is around 700 points. Target 1000 points. One lot of SilverM contains 5 contracts. So 1000 point profit would give Rs.5000 on a margin on Rs.11,000 (approx)

Regards,
Oppo

[amitagg]

Both gold (mine) and silver( yours) targets done
Silver gave Rs 30000 for 1000 points ( one lot) and gold gave 25000 Rs for 250 points ( one lot)
Hope exiting the trades!?

[opportunist]

Hi Amit,

Thanks for your comments.

My Silver June targets of 37900 has not yet been reached. Today silver June has opened slightly higher at 38223 but the trend on the one day timeframe continues to be bearish. So I hope that the target will be achieved in next few days or else we will have to take our SL which I am setting today at 38600 (that will still give me 320 points).

Now one request is that I have started this thread to provide calls from my trades. So would appreciate if you post your calls (e.g., on Gold or Silver) on a separate thread so as not to confuse the readers of this thread.

However, your comments on my calls are most welcome.

Regards,

Oppo



e="amitagg"]Both gold (mine) and silver( yours) targets done
Silver gave Rs 30000 for 1000 points ( one lot) and gold gave 25000 Rs for 250 points ( one lot)
Hope exiting the trades!?[/quote]

[opportunist]

Hi Guys,

This thread, as you have noted, is slow moving with around 1 post a day from my side. It is designed that way as it highlights the virtues of ‘Trading SLOWLY and Trading LESS’. Moreover it celebrates the time tested technique of following a trend.

It is an established fact that in virtually any market and at any time if one traded by following trends he would be very wealthy soon without much effort. To follow trends one must trade less. After all you need to enter a trend and ride it out as long as possible without exiting. But then “Trading SLOWLY and Trading LESS” is lot harder than it sounds. It is very simple to understand but quite difficult to follow. Primarily because it goes against all the impulses felt by an ordinary trader viz.,

a) To enter a trade late no matter what , to take advantage of the “hot opportunity” that SEEMS to (and often not really) pass by
b) To nervously keep watching the screen the who whole day and exit a trade on the first signs of negative result
c) To trade frequently (getting in a trade and quickly exiting) hoping to make a lot of points but due to whipsaws in reality actually giving away a lot resulting in net low profit or sometimes large losses

The difficulty in following a trend is that it needs enormous amounts of discipline. It requires to hold on to temporary reversals giving away profits gained in earlier days, but it often ends up with higher profits in the long run. The first impulse in such situations is to close the trade and lock away the profit. But only when we are ready to follow the path of the trend does the market shower us with eye-popping returns to the risk taken in a short time. But one requires a gut wrenching self-restraint required for such an outcome and that can only come from an enormous faith in your chosen system and signals.

That brings us to what should be our system and signals. There are a host of methods and tools to determine a trend and also signals of reversal which alerts one. It is best to do your own research and create one’s own system. The following are well recognized tools (all available on Icharts) for trend trading:

a) Heiken Ashi
b) PAR SAR
c) ADX
d) Supertrend
e) Ichimoku Cloud

One or a combination of the above may be used to arrive at the decision of what price point to enter the trade at. However, a more important aspect comes in determining and maintaining a reasonable STOP LOSS. To recognize a reasonable stop loss is the most important tool to achieve the discipline. Ability to determine a reasonable stop loss alone can help realise the “self-restraint” that I was talking about in the above para.

If the stop loss is too small it may not cover the intraday volatility enough and would be taken out soon. So the opportunity of following the trend over days and making a large profit is nipped in the bud. If the stop loss is too large then it may not protect the trader when even a serious reversal in trend happens. Sometimes it may be required to close the trade as the stop loss is taken and interim profits made before vanishes. That might sound like a set back but it is not. If one is disciplined enough to be loyal to the system one would be able to keep making consistent profits in the long run even after temporary losses (or rather inability to lock in higher profits).

Now the question readers may ask at this point is “How to determine a good stop loss”? To that my answer is that it is impossible to give a precise formula for what goes in deciding three things viz.,

a) The stop loss
b) The entry point of a trade and
c) The exit point

The above 3 parameters are all you require really for a successful trade, making money consistently month after month. But to arrive at the ability to make a good judgement to decide the above three requires good knowledge of the trading tools and above all continuous and long practice in the market. All this helps one achieve consistency and that is what builds wealth. So it is not enough to be brilliant at times, you need to CONSISTENTLY make profits to reach your goal of amassing wealth.

To give an example from cricket. Good batsmen like Dravid were known for consistency while brilliant batsmen like Sehwag were known for extremes, either a triple century or a duck. In cricket there are no negative scores and if the team management has faith on your skills you may continue even after scoring a zero but in trading a ‘duck’ is equivalent to loss.

So who do you want to be? Sehwag or Dravid?

The other aspect one needs to appreciate is to be simple in your approach. In life something may be simple but may not be easy. Example, walking on two legs is simple but is not an easy job. It takes the human being 10-12 months to learn how to walk after it is born. When one meets with an accident in the leg one realizes how many muscles and a very complicated coordination are involved in helping a person to stand and then walk.

Giving an example again from cricket. It looks so simple when Sachin or Dhoni hits the ball out of the park for a six but it requires years of practice and a tremendous hand eye coordination to command that kind of skill.

Trading successfully is also very simple - something like walking or batting in cricket. In Sehwag's language: "See ball, hit ball". But it takes a lot of practice to arrive at the tremendous amount of coordination and judgment which is required to successfully ride a trend and once it is done rightly it looks all so simple like a surfer riding a high wave on the sea or Sehwag hitting a sixer.

So friends I am not saying that I am Sachin, Sehwag or a champion surfer but with some years of practice in the market have realized some simple truths:

a) Avoid price predictions however great the tool may be (Wolfe wave, Elliot etc.) for they can bring terrible ruin to your trades when they dont get fulfilled
b) Practice trend following techniques keeping reasonable stop losses and locking your trade at decreasing losses followed by increasing profits
c) Trade when you are absolutely sure of the opportunity which means enter a trade not on the first impulse but only when you have carefully weighed the opportunity

With these realisations and some simple widely available tools mentioned above I am now trading and running the thread.

Hope you will benefit from my calls. My current call in SilverM June has already entered positive territory. That is no matter what happens you could have locked in a profit of 320 points at least. That would be Rs.1600 per lot of SilverM. For a margin of around 11,000 rupees this profit may not seem very high but it could have been worse. It could have been a loss which you have now prevented and can live to fight another day and make a lot of money.

I will be available for any queries on my trades but will not discuss about the exact strategy I have undertaken for the particular trade. If you are able to do trend trading using the above mentioned tools you will not feel the need to even ask. Otherwise you are welcome to simply follow my daily calls with your eyes closed. I assure that you will make reasonably good money in the long run (few months) at a rate much higher than any other normal investment avenue.

Regards,

Oppo

[opportunist]

Guys today at around 5 pm I achieved my target of 37900 or 1020 points in SilverM June. The trade was entered on 15th June at 38920. So it took 6 days (4 trading days) to achieve 1000 point through Short sale of SilverM contracts. But I have not yet exited the trade as I find the bearish trend continuing. Maybe I can make another 500 points. This of course is fraught with some risk. It means I may miss making the entire 1020 points but now setting the stop loss to 38400 so that I can ensure 520 points at least.


My other concern is that nobody (except Amit) is replying to my posts. Since there is no way to check readership I am not sure whether anybody is reading my writings at all. Especially since today I took out time to write a rather long post explaining my trading philosophy. It is very disappointing when you dont get responses after you keep giving advise which can be potentially valuable.

So I have decided that if by tomorrow there is not at least 3 other responses other than from Amit Aggarwal then I will stop this thread.

Regards,
Oppo

[balarajh]

I am following this thread. please continue. not yet started trading.
hb

[rajeehvu]

I am also following this thread.Not yet started trading.

[manojkr78]

me too following this thread, your call on silver was fantastic....

[pkholla]

Oppo: Count me in on those following your threadS!
We are lucky to have such dedicated knowledge-able co-travellers (willing to share) with us in ICharts!
I only hesitated to post earlier because I dont know anything about commodity trading (but would like to) and didnt want to post unnecessarily, bloating up your thread
Cheers, Prakash Holla

Looking fwd to reading more from "Jaroori Padey To Mein Dravid, Mauka Miley To Mein Sehwag!"