iCharts Discussions

[channasri]

Nifty's closing on last Friday has hinted at 'SELL ON RISES' for this week. My view is that major sell-off in Nifty is possible below 6130-6140 only. Nifty will have to take out 6358 decisively for new highs.

channasriSAR for Nifty for 20/1/2014: 6250

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Pls note channasriSAR for Nifty for 21/1/2014: 6262

For those who have taken long position and carried, SL is 6282.

In case, Nifty goes below 6282, book profit. Go short only if Nifty goes below 6262. Keep a SL of 6282. If Nifty spot goes below 6242 level, revise SL to 6262. If nifty starts rising, book profit at 6242. Again, if nifty goes above, 6262, go long keeping 6242 as SL.

If nifty closes above 6262, carry the long position to the next session. It will be good to hedge the long position with 6150 put. On 22-1-2014, 'Put' can be liquidated if nifty closes above channasriSAR for 22-1-2014. The channasriSAR for 22-1-2014 will be provided either tomorrow late evening or atleast before trading hours on 22-1-2014.

The above paragraphs carry my suggestion for using channasriSAR in nifty trading. I request the traders to use their own strategies to trade with channasriSAR. The intra-day trade possibilities mentioned above do not happen everyday. They happen when the trend reverses. Because, channasriSAR is a positional trading system. Please take your own decision.

All the nifty numbers above are 'spot values'.

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

As expressed earlier, Nifty's movements have complied to 'SELL ON RISES' hinted by the EOD of last Friday. One can see this behaviour both y'day and today. Sometimes 'SELL ON RISES' weekly behaviour shows its effect in the latter half of the week also. I mean to say that the first 2-3 days show a rising trend followed by corrections. Anyway, only change is permanent.

Pls note channasriSAR for Nifty for 22/1/2014: 6276

SL for Longs: 6296
SL for Shorts: 6256

Regards,
channasri

[manojrp]

[channasri]

Nifty could overcome the 6330 level decisively. Now it has take out 6358 decisively and close above it. For higher spot levels from hereon, nifty OI should also increase with nifty spot. Otherwise, nifty will lack momentum and succumb to selling pressure.

Pls note channasriSAR for Nifty for 22/1/2014: 6292

SL for Longs: 6312
SL for Shorts: 6272

@manojrp: I have given SL for shorts to help the traders in case nifty takes u-turn and exhibits intra-day volatility. For 22/1/2014, SL for shorts was 6256 and not 6356.

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

With a session remaining in this week, weekly trend should be asserted tomorrow. Y'day I expressed that rise nifty not accompanied by rise in OI will lead to selling. SGX Nifty is already indicating a gap down tomorrow. Of course, we have to look for the same in the morning also. Week remains to be 'SELL ON RISES'

Pls note channasriSAR for Nifty for 24/1/2014: 6305

SL for Longs: 6325
SL for Shorts: 6285

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Last day of the week is here. After last week's closure I expressed 'SELL ON RISES' strategy for the week. The trend should assert itself with most intensity today. Because, today is the last session of this week. SGX Nifty as of now indicating a gap down opening. Two levels appear to be important to me from EOD point of view:

1) Today's EOD above 6326 would mean bullish next week
2) Today's EOD above channasriSAR 6305 would also mean bullishness but in the daily charts.

The No. 6326 written above is about channasriSAR + 20 points, the SL for longs. Hence, staying above these is critical (atleast above channasriSAR). Next week is eventful. Hence, the market might have moved sideways with mild bullish tone in this week. Critical support lebvels are 6320, 6305, 6270-6240 (cluster).

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

The market witnessed one of the best examples of 'Sell on rises'. Nifty closed well below channasriSAR. SGX Nifty as of Friday closing atleast has hinted at a huge gap down opening on Monday. But we have to SGX Nifty on Monday morning for sure. Europe and US had a huge sell off.

[channasri]

Pls note the channasriSAR for 27/1/2014: 6302
SL for longs: 6322
SL for shorts: 6282

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Nifty has been held just above the critical 6130 level.

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 28/1/2014: 6270

SL for Longs: 6290
SL for Shorts: 6250

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Nifty has to close above 6161 tomorrow for any possibility of upmove. Hourly T/F is oversold. It may give some bounce.

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 29/1/2014: 6243

SL for Longs: 6263
SL for Shorts: 6223

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Dear novice traders,

I have suggested a few things in the below lines. Hope that these things help someone somewhere.

1) Always keep these things in mind: 20 DSMA, 50 DSMA, 100 DSMA and 200 DSMA. Y'day, Nifty took support of 100 DSMA and closed above it.

2) When daily charts show a flat, horizontal Bollinger's band, expect range bound trading. Nifty is demonstrating the same for many weeks now.

3) Gap openings happen usually (but not necessarily always) in corrective rallies (bear or bull).

4) This series witnessed Nifty going below 50 DSMA, staying below it for 3-4 days, bounced to reach 6355 levels and then collapsed well below 50 DSMA. It even went below 100 DSMA intra-day (y'day) and bounced. Similar things happen around the critical SMAs mentioned above. Bigger the SMA No., more the magnitude of reaction.

5) Consider MACD crossovers as beginning or termination of a wave. Some crossovers coincide well with daily candles but some do not. I mean, MACD crossovers happen slower than daily candles. However, they provide a fairly good indication of what is happening. I suggest using MACD (9,24,9) of icharts rather than the default MACD (12, 26, 9). Because, I have seen that in most of the times, MACD (9,24,9) gives the same signal as MACD (12,26,9) but one candle earlier.

Always go by the charts and not by news flow. Y'day RBI announced rate hike but the markets did not collapse (except for 15 minutes or so after the announcement of RBI decision). Theoretically, the markets should have collapsed and ended much lower. This is just an example.

The above are my observations. I have shared here for your benefits as I had some free time today. Please develop your own methods.

Best regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Nifty closed below the critical 6130 for 2nd session in a row and below 50 DSMA for 3rd session in a row. However, 100 DSMA is still protected.

Please note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 30/1/2014: 6220
SL for Longs: 6240
SL for Shorts: 6200

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Please note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 31/1/2014: 6191
SL for Longs: 6211
SL for Shorts: 6171

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Sorry friends for being unable post the daily updates for the last 2 days. My PC had some issues and the posting thro' my smart phone y'day was not successful. In such days please trail the positions using 13 DEMA or 20 DEMA.

Nifty today breached 200 DSMA (5975) but bounced smartly to close above this level. Pls read my posting few days ago for novice traders and another one where I mentioned that only oversold daily T/F remains the hope. Both have played today.

Pls note the channasriSAR for 05-02-2014: 6101

Regards,
channasri