iCharts Discussions

[channasri]

Oversold daily T/F is giving a bounce from yesterday's low. Once again Nifty spot closed above 200 DSMA. Let's see how long the bounce continues.

Pls note the channasriSAR for 06-02-2014: 6079

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty spot for 07-02-2014: 6065

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Dear novice traders,

This week witnessed Nifty spot taking support of 50 week SMA @ 5939 (icharts weekly charts). This coincided with the bottom of Bollinger's band, oversold daily T/F and 200 DSMA (5978 as per icharts daily charts). The current bounce from the lows of the week is due to oversold daily T/F as per my observation. Nifty needs to stay above 6100 week after week to realise new highs. However, the weekly and monthly charts are indicating a downtrend. Hence, one needs to be cautious with longs.

Hereafter, time decay effect becomes more and more powerful for the current series. Hence, I suggest you to involve in options writing rather than buying them. Do have stop losses.

Please weigh the pros and cons before taking decisions.

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty (spot) for 10-2-2014: 6059

Bank Nifty is fast approaching negative crossover of 50 DSMA over 200 DSMA. Hence, don't get carried away by the current bounce of Nifty.

Regards,
channasri

[amitagg]

[channasri]

Thanks amitagg.

The bounce is weakening. Let us see what will happen tomorrow.

Pls note the channasriSAR for 11-2-2014: 6054

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Dear novice traders,

Bank Nifty has indicated a significant hint for a possible big down trend. Its 50 DSMA has closed below 200 DSMA. Refer to daily charts of icharts. Please be careful with LONGS - either Nifty or bank Nifty. Don't get carried away by comments such as 'pre-election rally'. I will be very happy if this 'DEATH CROSS' is negated.

The best thing is to follow the prices and charts. Select a time tested conservative method and follow it religiously. Trade all the signals with TSL (trailing stop loss) method.

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 12-2-2014: 6053

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Pls note the channasriSAR for 13-02-2014: 6056

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Nifty 20 DSMA closed below 100 DSMA.

Pls note channasriSAR for 14-02-2014: 6045

Regards,
channasri

[pvramesh]

Dear Chennasriji

i am confused. The SAR for 13th is 6056 nifty spot. With my little knowledge I assumed that around 6056 reversal to uptrend from down trend. But it went to close ar 5995. Pl. explain how to trade with chennasriSAR value.

[channasri]

Dear pvrameshji,

My suggestions for positional trading in Nifty with channasriSAR are provided below taking channasriSAR for 14-2-2014 as an example. All the numbers are for Nifty spot.

1) channasriSAR for 14-2-2014 was 6045. Keep 20 points for either side. I mean, if Nifty crosses 6045 on the upside, go LONG. Keep 6025 as SL. When Nifty starts inching higher, increase SL slowly. When Nifty goes much higher, revise SL to 6045 and then 6065. So, if Nifty starts coming down, you will book profit at 6065.

2) Go SHORT only if Nifty breaks down 6045 keeping 6065 as SL. Trail your SL as explained above but on the downside because you have a SHORT position.

3) On the day of trend reversal, channasriSAR gives intraday trading opportunities. Otherwise, the TRADE remains for few to many sessions. I have provided performance chart of Nifty positional trading based channasriSAR in the 1st page of this thread. Excel chart has been posted in both recent and old versions. Please chose your version and see thoroughly.

4) At EOD of the day of trend reversal, have a near the money option in the opposite side as HEDGE. Liquidate the option at EOD of the next day.

5) Traders may use 5 EMA or 5 SMA in 2 min or 5 min T/F also to decide entry and exit. It depends on one's risk appetite, trading style etc.

6) I suggest a few moving averages crossovers here for your benefit to assess the likely trend on the next day. For 5 min T/F, 34 EMA over 89 EMA; for 15 min T/F, 21 SMA over 34 SMA. When such a crossover happens in the 2nd half of the session, I become fairly sure that I can carry my position. However, probability is always between 0 and 1. Hence, no crossover gives you 100% guarantee. Trading is all about chosing a proper/good method and trading all the signals given by it with discipline. Positional trading with channasriSAR is no exception to this. Once you see the performance chart, you will get convinced that channsriSAR based trading is a time tested one. I am happy to express here that on most of the occasions, I have observed consolidation in Nifty when it is within 20 points range from channsriSAR for that session.

7) Please research to arrive at your own preferred crossovers or other methods such as pivot, resistance/support levels, fibonacci retracements etc. if you are not convinced with the crossovers I have posted here.

As a busy working professional (5 days week working system), I will be able to clear doubts (with my little knowledge) in either nights or pre-trading hours only. I hope that you understand my restrictions. ALL THE BEST.

Regards,
channasri

[pvramesh]

Dear Chennasriji

Many thanks for your elaborate explanation. I will follow your advise for few days and revert back to you on my experience. thanks again

PVRamesh

[channasri]

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty spot for 17-2-2014: 6045

@ pvrameshji: I suggest the following to you and any other ichartian who wants to trade (positional) based on channasriSAR: paper trade initially followed by options writing (near the money options) and then futures trading.

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Vote on account failed to lift the market sentiment. The market here afterwards to trade based on QE tapering news and election outcome prediction. FM's budget deficit proposal of 4.1% for next FY depends on increase in tax collections (in a slowing economy). Let's hope for the best.

IMPORTANT: Weekly charts are indicating a range bound movement in Nifty.

Pls note channasriSAR for 18-2-2014: 6052
SL for Longs: 6072
SL for Shorts (in case of trend reversal): 6032

Regards,
channasri

[channasri]

Pls note channasriSAR for 19-2-2014: 6068
SL for Longs: 6088
SL for Shorts (in case of trend reversal): 6048

Regards,
channasri