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Triple Top in GDP Charts ? |
lambuhere1
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Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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vinay28
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Post: #2  Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:08 am Post subject: |
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don't spread panic like this! 
It's forming HnS pattern!  |
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SwingTrader
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #3 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:03 am Post subject: |
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lambuhere1,
Moving this thread to "Economy" forum. Please create topics in correct forums. Thanks.
My opinion about your post...this and all fundamental data we end users have access to is thoroughly manipulated and thus useless for any kind of analysis. Things are probably much worse than what is being portrayed at the moment.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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STEPUP
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Joined: 17 Mar 2012
Posts: 95
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| Post: #4 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | lambuhere1,
Moving this thread to "Economy" forum. Please create topics in correct forums. Thanks.
My opinion about your post...this and all fundamental data we end users have access to is thoroughly manipulated and thus useless for any kind of analysis. Things are probably much worse than what is being portrayed at the moment. |
SPOT ON |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #5 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:21 am Post subject: |
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GDP numbers are sliding due a government that is stuck between a rock and a hard place!
Inflation is already high since it is imported. They have blundered and kept raising rates for almost 13 times till the economy fell off the cliff.
Now they are scared of the junta/opposition if they lower rates and increase liquidity( more inflation will result).
Recent fuel hike was an all time high but it is going to be tough for the government as can be seen in the picture.
Our market will slide if the GDP tanks. |
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psalm
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| Post: #6 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:27 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | lambuhere1,
Moving this thread to "Economy" forum. Please create topics in correct forums. Thanks.
My opinion about your post...this and all fundamental data we end users have access to is thoroughly manipulated and thus useless for any kind of analysis. Things are probably much worse than what is being portrayed at the moment. |
Though I believe that the value of a stock is based on the fundamentals, it is pretty difficult for retail investors like us to find the exact value of a stock. The reason is mentioned above by, ST. When you dont have the real data, when you're not provided with real data, or not on time..then how is it possible to VALUE an underlying? Sometimes, the IIP data comes at 9%, in the next month the governing body corrects it to below 2% or 3% owing to some calculation mistakes.  . Ridiculous, isn't it? But this is what happening. So, what is solution for us? Follow the smart money. That means we should be concerned only about the PRICE rather than VALUE. The best practice to follow the smart money is to look at the charts, the indicators, volume, money flow etc. As long as we're deprived of exact/real fundamental data, this is the only option for us.
NOTE: This opinion is very much personal. People may differ with my opinion. Please know that I respect your opinions too.
SAM |
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psalm
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| Post: #7 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:34 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | lambuhere1,
Moving this thread to "Economy" forum. Please create topics in correct forums. Thanks.
My opinion about your post...this and all fundamental data we end users have access to is thoroughly manipulated and thus useless for any kind of analysis. Things are probably much worse than what is being portrayed at the moment. |
Though I believe that the value of a stock is based on the fundamentals, it is pretty difficult for retail investors like us to find the exact value of a stock. The reason is mentioned above by, ST. When you dont have the real data, when you're not provided with real data, or not on time..then how is it possible to VALUE an underlying? Sometimes, the IIP data comes at 9%, in the next month the governing body corrects it to below 2% or 3% owing to some calculation mistakes. . Ridiculous, isn't it? But this is what happening. So, what is solution for us? Follow the smart money. That means we should be concerned only about the PRICE rather than VALUE. The best practice to follow the smart money is to look at the charts, the indicators, volume, money flow etc. As long as we're deprived of exact/real fundamental data, this is the only option for us.
NOTE: This opinion is very much personal. People may differ with my opinion. Please know that I respect your opinions too.
SAM |
Example of manipulation is given below. Please check them out:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Government-blundered-on-Jan-IIP-cuts-it-from-6-8-to-1-1/articleshow/12642166.cms |
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lambuhere1
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Joined: 06 Jul 2010
Posts: 26
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| Post: #8 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | lambuhere1,
Moving this thread to "Economy" forum. Please create topics in correct forums. Thanks. |
Thanks ST for moving it to the relevant forum. Effort highly appreciated.
Still trying to learn charts. Good to see if appears to be HnS.
As rightly pointed out by esteemed members, we need to live with the data we have on hands, but assuming it follows HnS correctly, can we have any timeframe for it to complete the pattern ?
Will it be at the end of 2012 or early 2013 ? |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #9 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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sam, one's opinion is always personal!
Lambu - target below 6 by 2013 March? |
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psalm
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| Post: #10 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam, one's opinion is always personal!
Lambu - target below 6 by 2013 March? |
hahaha....it was just an OPINION....NOT A FACT....that's what I wanted to say there...... |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #11 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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Psalm ...expecting precision in fundamental data or technical charts we know is a mirage.
Ultimately we speculate.(governments/stock exchanges all have been there done that) Smart money is also speculating though the dumb guys cant decide when to get off !
Not being concerned with accurate data and looking to QoQ variations can give you the general drift ..not in isolation but with interest rates/BDI etc factored in your personal judgement.
Just as two traders see different patterns in the same chart...and can take opposite stance.
Using data is also an art ? |
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SwingTrader
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Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #12 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | Psalm ...expecting precision in fundamental data or technical charts we know is a mirage.
Ultimately we speculate.(governments/stock exchanges all have been there done that) Smart money is also speculating though the dumb guys cant decide when to get off !
Not being concerned with accurate data and looking to QoQ variations can give you the general drift ..not in isolation but with interest rates/BDI etc factored in your personal judgement.
Just as two traders see different patterns in the same chart...and can take opposite stance.
Using data is also an art ? |
Yes but fundamental data is a far larger mirage  One eventually learns to see through the technical mirage. By the time one tries to see through fundamental mirage, govt/companies change the data to create a larger mirage and keep us confused I keep fundamentals far and away. For me fundamentals are best used as a "data filter", even if the data is manipulated and turned into crap later, it does not matter. Actual trading should be done on technicals alone. No chance of blaming govt/companies etc later. One has to blame oneself for all decisions.
There is no need to defend fundamental analysis as soon as someone comments against it. You should realize that you are on a website that breathes technicals. The sort of interest fundamentals generate on this website is indicated by the interest in our "Fundamental Analysis" forum.
And that is how I intend to keep it.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #13 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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ST my post is not in defense of the fundamentals or against technicals.
Its just that speculation is the name of the game with whatever info is at hand- on a chart or based on a number.
Lambuhere1 has a technical view on the GDP data( triple top or HnS) plotted as a chart, however inaccurate. He could use IMF/WORLD BANK data , which the funds( aka smart money) also use.
Funds move money into those markets where GDP is rising - this is a fact ( pls check all rising stock markets )
They pull out money when GDP drops or starts to falter QoQ(ref : China , Japan , now India)
So it maybe a good idea to provide the GDP QoQ growth chart( to enable readers of this forum to -technically-go long or short a country index).
Just a suggestion... |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #14 Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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| ajayhkaul wrote: | ST my post is not in defense of the fundamentals or against technicals.
Its just that speculation is the name of the game with whatever info is at hand- on a chart or based on a number.
Lambuhere1 has a technical view on the GDP data( triple top or HnS) plotted as a chart, however inaccurate. He could use IMF/WORLD BANK data , which the funds( aka smart money) also use.
Funds move money into those markets where GDP is rising - this is a fact ( pls check all rising stock markets )
They pull out money when GDP drops or starts to falter QoQ(ref : China , Japan , now India)
So it maybe a good idea to provide the GDP QoQ growth chart( to enable readers of this forum to -technically-go long or short a country index).
Just a suggestion... |
Thanks for the suggestion, but NO I will not have that chart on this website. This is the problem, you do not understand at all. I would have gladly used GDP QoQ growth chart if I was trading GDP futures if they existed. I am trading NF so I just need NF chart.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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lambuhere1
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Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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