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Why you should never do partial booking |
worsttrader White Belt
Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 39
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Post: #1 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:50 am Post subject: Why you should never do partial booking |
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Partial booking is something many traders do to cut their losses thinking it will increase their profitability. However, mathematically, partial booking will usually end up in depleting your profits. here is an excel worksheet with different system accuracy percentages which clearly show that it is better to book full profits under EVERY circumstance. I hope it helps a few people.
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rrk2006hyd Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2010 Posts: 874
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Post: #2 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:01 am Post subject: Re: Why you should never do partial booking |
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vijaydevani wrote: | Partial booking is something many traders do to cut their losses thinking it will increase their profitability. However, mathematically, partial booking will usually end up in depleting your profits. here is an excel worksheet with different system accuracy percentages which clearly show that it is better to book full profits under EVERY circumstance. I hope it helps a few people. |
yes..you are right...i'm against partial profit booking..thanks for the excel sheet...
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worsttrader White Belt
Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 39
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Post: #3 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:27 am Post subject: added a few more scenarios |
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I added a few scenarios where partial profit booking worked and converted losses to profits. even then it is clear that unless your system itself is bad, there is no advantage to booking partial profits.
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worsttrader White Belt
Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 39
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Post: #4 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:46 am Post subject: Re: added a few more scenarios |
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vijaydevani wrote: | I added a few scenarios where partial profit booking worked and converted losses to profits. even then it is clear that unless your system itself is bad, there is no advantage to booking partial profits. |
What I have demonstrated is that partial profit booking will only work to your advantage if it renders EVERY SINGLE TRADE A ZERO LOSS TRADE. It works only if you do not suffer ANY loss in ANY trade at all. If your SL gets hit without you being able to book partial profits even 10 percent of the time, then there is no scenario in which partial booking will give better results than full booking. You have to book partially such that you NEVER make a loss. Only then will partial booking work to your advantage which is a pretty impossible thing to do.
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worsttrader White Belt
Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 39
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Post: #5 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: added a few more scenarios |
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vijaydevani wrote: | vijaydevani wrote: | I added a few scenarios where partial profit booking worked and converted losses to profits. even then it is clear that unless your system itself is bad, there is no advantage to booking partial profits. |
What I have demonstrated is that partial profit booking will only work to your advantage if it renders EVERY SINGLE TRADE A ZERO LOSS TRADE. It works only if you do not suffer ANY loss in ANY trade at all. If your SL gets hit without you being able to book partial profits even 10 percent of the time, then there is no scenario in which partial booking will give better results than full booking. You have to book partially such that you NEVER make a loss. Only then will partial booking work to your advantage which is a pretty impossible thing to do. |
What needs consideration is also the fact that I have only considered target to be twice the SL. If, however, your usual targets or average targets are 3 or 4 times the SL, then partial booking at SL will give even worse results. Every way you look at it, partial booking is GUARANTEED to reduce the profitability of trades. You simply cannot ignore the math.
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druzva White Belt
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Posts: 47
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Post: #6 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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Vijay Bhai if you see SB people keep booking whole day. Left right and center. Joke apart positive expectancy also depends upon from a trading style . Say for example if you trade Intra day partial booking at 1:2 risk reward and trailing balance will give positive ledger . But if you trade positional or swing partial booking with similar risk reward may not work. We need higher risk reward. as you have to factor potential gaps against your trend. 1:4 for can be ideal for part booking. But if you are a "JIGARA" and can hold completely from pivot to pivot . It will also work but you need to be mentally strong. In practice it does trouble. Runy
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marimuthu13 White Belt
Joined: 30 Aug 2011 Posts: 212
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Post: #7 Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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very basic thing which missing is revisiting SL after after partial booking..
if i have 2 tgt., booked half at 1st tgt then i would revisit sl to cost to cost and waiting for 2nd tgt for remaining possiton..
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ndpotade Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Feb 2010 Posts: 580
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Post: #8 Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:00 am Post subject: |
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marimuthu13 wrote: | very basic thing which missing is revisiting SL after after partial booking..
if i have 2 tgt., booked half at 1st tgt then i would revisit sl to cost to cost and waiting for 2nd tgt for remaining possiton.. |
I agree with your view.
We cant say that partial booking of Profit is wrong.
After booking of Partial Profit, we can improve our Stop Loss as Entry level so there wont be risk of loss.
Last edited by ndpotade on Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:44 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #9 Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2014 9:55 am Post subject: |
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Vijay:
1) You have probably only considered trades that have moved on to target. Many trades reverse after partially going towards target. What about them? Should we wait for CMP to reverse completely and hit SL?
2) Bill Wolfe , originator of WW theory, clearly states that if the CMP has reached a point where you are satisfied with the profit generated, then you can book partly or completely just TO BE SAFE, RATHER THAN SORRY instead of waiting for the theoretical target
3) It is very easy to do POST MORTEM of completed moves and say dont book partly but when faced with a share that is WAVERING and threatening to reverse I would rather book and exit esp if it has covered , say, 60% of the way.
As Umesh1 originator of Gann thread says, another day, another trade are always ahead of you! See Umesh's rules: book 50% at first tgt, 25% at 2nd tgt and fully at 3rd tgt
Cheers, Prakash Holla
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taruj White Belt
Joined: 20 Apr 2011 Posts: 260
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Post: #10 Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:39 am Post subject: |
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Vijay,
I wish I had this amount of knowledge to answer or to ask questions. And I have not done the math behind all of this. Some basic thing that I believe, may be completely messed up however it has been my experience that
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Risk/Reward is obvious/confirmed after the trade is done. The idea behind reward is somewhat like this. I have risked 100 Rs to make 200 Rs. now Do I KNOW that I will get 200 rs? if yes, then no SL is required. I put SL as I dont know I will get 200 rs. so what remains? I can sit and wait for getting 200 or exit "somewhat" at 150, 180, 120 somewhere where i am comfortable. - I have a rule around this, that has helped me. Infact I might book completely at a price that may not be giving me a 1:2 RR.
Markets are uncertain. Max profits aside, even profits are uncertain.
Hence I don't even think I will be able to ask the questions that i thought I will be able to ask .
Regards,
Taruj
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worsttrader White Belt
Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 39
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Post: #11 Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:54 am Post subject: |
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taruj wrote: | Vijay,
I wish I had this amount of knowledge to answer or to ask questions. And I have not done the math behind all of this. Some basic thing that I believe, may be completely messed up however it has been my experience that
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Risk/Reward is obvious/confirmed after the trade is done. The idea behind reward is somewhat like this. I have risked 100 Rs to make 200 Rs. now Do I KNOW that I will get 200 rs? if yes, then no SL is required. I put SL as I dont know I will get 200 rs. so what remains? I can sit and wait for getting 200 or exit "somewhat" at 150, 180, 120 somewhere where i am comfortable. - I have a rule around this, that has helped me. Infact I might book completely at a price that may not be giving me a 1:2 RR.
Markets are uncertain. Max profits aside, even profits are uncertain.
Hence I don't even think I will be able to ask the questions that i thought I will be able to ask .
Regards,
Taruj |
taruj, though you put a trade thinking you will get a certain amount of profit, you have to base your calculations on what you REALLY get out of it. so say you risk 100 for a perceived reward of 200 but actually get only 80, then your reward is 80. in the next trade of the same nature, if you lose 100 then your RR becomes 80/100. if you lose only 30 then RR becomes 80/30. That is why it becomes necessary to keep a ledger and make an excel sheet of your trades. you can then calculate whatever you want. But you have missed the point of partial booking completely. Whatever the number of trades you take, you will have a certain amount of accuracy, which is less than 100%. I have proved that if you have an accuracy obove 40%, then partial booking will decrease your profits IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES, without fail. It has nothing to do with drawdowns or preserving capital. If your profit is not maximized, over the long term you will not be able to preserve it. This is a case of counterintuitive proposition and that is why you are hesitant to accept it. This is where emotion must be overcome for logic.
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #12 Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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2 points:
- "time horizon" of trade is also important....depending on what time frame chafrts we trade , if we have or should have a time horizon of trade from initiation, then "full profit booking" can and should be done based on this....as often said, we to price studies but time studies are important to further understand the trade position
- also, as we get more and more adept and able to trade "shorter time frames", then "full profit booking" can be done [since the longer trend may be different....] -though on probability we should trade when multiple trends are in our favour
it is quite possible that i am wrong.....
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taruj White Belt
Joined: 20 Apr 2011 Posts: 260
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Post: #13 Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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vijaydevani wrote: | taruj wrote: | Vijay,
I wish I had this amount of knowledge to answer or to ask questions. And I have not done the math behind all of this. Some basic thing that I believe, may be completely messed up however it has been my experience that
-
Risk/Reward is obvious/confirmed after the trade is done. The idea behind reward is somewhat like this. I have risked 100 Rs to make 200 Rs. now Do I KNOW that I will get 200 rs? if yes, then no SL is required. I put SL as I dont know I will get 200 rs. so what remains? I can sit and wait for getting 200 or exit "somewhat" at 150, 180, 120 somewhere where i am comfortable. - I have a rule around this, that has helped me. Infact I might book completely at a price that may not be giving me a 1:2 RR.
Markets are uncertain. Max profits aside, even profits are uncertain.
Hence I don't even think I will be able to ask the questions that i thought I will be able to ask .
Regards,
Taruj |
taruj, though you put a trade thinking you will get a certain amount of profit, you have to base your calculations on what you REALLY get out of it. so say you risk 100 for a perceived reward of 200 but actually get only 80, then your reward is 80. in the next trade of the same nature, if you lose 100 then your RR becomes 80/100. if you lose only 30 then RR becomes 80/30. That is why it becomes necessary to keep a ledger and make an excel sheet of your trades. you can then calculate whatever you want. But you have missed the point of partial booking completely. Whatever the number of trades you take, you will have a certain amount of accuracy, which is less than 100%. I have proved that if you have an accuracy obove 40%, then partial booking will decrease your profits IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES, without fail. It has nothing to do with drawdowns or preserving capital. If your profit is not maximized, over the long term you will not be able to preserve it. This is a case of counterintuitive proposition and that is why you are hesitant to accept it. This is where emotion must be overcome for logic. |
But my objective is to save my capital. profits may be less. that is my view.
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Atrader White Belt
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 21
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Post: #14 Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:00 am Post subject: |
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There is old axiom in trading world
" CUT YOUR LOSERS and LET THE WINNERS RUN"
I think profit booking depends on position sizing, how much you have on the line. Because with large position sizing it is better to get to break even as early as possible otherwise objectiveness of mind will get lost in due course if trade goes in wrong direction.
Every trader should have definite strategy for exit and he/she must follow the same because in long run. As disciplined trader will always get rewarded.
Humans are greedy by nature and also fearful but the set of rules will keep these emotions out of equation and make the ride smooth.
With small positions it is possible to ride the move all along.
So it depends on each individual how they going do it
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