|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Will history repeat? |
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
|
Post: #1  Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:13 pm Post subject: Will history repeat? |
 |
|
I am re posting an excellent observation posted in some other forum.Thanks to Mr.Prabhakar.Every year Nifty moved up from june low to july high from 2006 to 2017 in terms of % max 23.62 in 2006 and minimum 8.30 in 2014.Will it repeat this year also from june low 10550.90(5/06/2018) to july high ???.
2006 ..........2595.65 to 3208.85
2007 ..........4100.80 to 4647.95
2008.......... 3790.20 to 4649.85
2009..... 4143.25 to 4669.75
2010..... 4165.05 to 5477.50
2011..... 5195.90 to 5740.40
2012.... 4770.35 to 5348.55
2013.... 5566.25 to 6093.35
2014.... 7239.50 to 7840.95
2015.... 7940.10 to 8654.75
2016..... 7927.05 to 8674.70
2017.... 9448.80 to 11114.85
2018.... 10550.90 to ????? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
|
| Post: #2 Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: Will history repeat? |
|
|
| chandrujimrc wrote: | I am re posting an excellent observation posted in some other forum.Thanks to Mr.Prabhakar.Every year Nifty moved up from june low to july high from 2006 to 2017 in terms of % max 23.62 in 2006 and minimum 8.30 in 2014.Will it repeat this year also from june low 10550.90(5/06/2018) to july high ???.
2006 ..........2595.65 to 3208.85
2007 ..........4100.80 to 4647.95
2008.......... 3790.20 to 4649.85
2009..... 4143.25 to 4669.75
2010..... 4165.05 to 5477.50
2011..... 5195.90 to 5740.40
2012.... 4770.35 to 5348.55
2013.... 5566.25 to 6093.35
2014.... 7239.50 to 7840.95
2015.... 7940.10 to 8654.75
2016..... 7927.05 to 8674.70
2017.... 9448.80 to 11114.85
2018.... 10550.90 to ????? |
Last year I benefited with this Funda, when i took OTM of banknifty, i booked in triple but Call did 9 times 
Maintain SL and be long....in stocks like Syndicate bank, canara bank, Bank of India, IDBI bank, CESC, Balkrishna Ind, Baj Finance, Maruti, Apollo Tyre, Hindalco... all good for 5%-10% rise minimum. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #3 Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I just checked with corresponding banknifty years and saw in preelection years 2008 and 2013 banknifty fell even though nifty went a little up but it was not too much as banknifty fell (check the candles).... 2014 also banknifty fell in July which was an odd case... And 2018 also is a preelection year..
On closing basis 26200-26000 held well in last 1 month or so... Thrus day briefly breached 26200 and we retested 26400-450 zone... I think if we make lower highs starting from Monday then clear indiction that 25500 shall come... Depends, let's see. For the moment I see on weekly (heiken-aishi) candles banknifty has three dojis (last one being red after several white ones) consecutively.. though closed around same levels, each exceeded previous candles high and low. So it has been expanding and jkuly should give a unidirectional movement of 800-1000 points. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
|
| Post: #4 Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | I just checked with corresponding banknifty years and saw in preelection years 2008 and 2013 banknifty fell even though nifty went a little up but it was not too much as banknifty fell (check the candles).... 2014 also banknifty fell in July which was an odd case... And 2018 also is a preelection year..
On closing basis 26200-26000 held well in last 1 month or so... Thrus day briefly breached 26200 and we retested 26400-450 zone... I think if we make lower highs starting from Monday then clear indiction that 25500 shall come... Depends, let's see. For the moment I see on weekly (heiken-aishi) candles banknifty has three dojis (last one being red after several white ones) consecutively.. though closed around same levels, each exceeded previous candles high and low. So it has been expanding and jkuly should give a unidirectional movement of 800-1000 points. |
One can add positional long in banknifty above 26490 in spot, with SL 26250 for at least 27200/500.... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
|
| Post: #5 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
| If the market really in a position to repeat the history today is the right day to buy some Otm CE options like 10800 to 11000 because Nifty is nearing June low.This is my view only. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
|
| Post: #6 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Bought 11000 CE 10 Lots @ 16/50 & 10800 CE 2 lots @55/50.Let us see. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dtbhat
White Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2010
Posts: 105
|
| Post: #7 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:32 pm Post subject: Re: Will history repeat? |
|
|
I checked the lows of July. Found that except in 2008 and 2009 June lows were not breached in July.
Year June Low July Low July High
2006 2,595.65 2,878.25 3,208.85
2007 4,100.80 4,304.00 4,647.95
2008 3,790.20 3,790.00 4,539.00
2009 4,143.25 3,919.00 4,670.00
2010 4,961.05 5,225.60 5,477.50
2011 5,195.90 5,453.95 5,740.40
2012 4,770.35 5,032.40 5,348.55
2013 5,566.25 5,675.75 6,093.35
2014 7,239.50 7,422.15 7,840.95
2015 7,940.10 8,654.75 8,315.40
2016 7,928.05 8,287.55 8,674.70
2017 9,448.80 9,543.55 10,114.85
2018 10,550.90
regards
dtbhat
| chandrujimrc wrote: | I am re posting an excellent observation posted in some other forum.Thanks to Mr.Prabhakar.Every year Nifty moved up from june low to july high from 2006 to 2017 in terms of % max 23.62 in 2006 and minimum 8.30 in 2014.Will it repeat this year also from june low 10550.90(5/06/2018) to july high ???.
2006 ..........2595.65 to 3208.85
2007 ..........4100.80 to 4647.95
2008.......... 3790.20 to 4649.85
2009..... 4143.25 to 4669.75
2010..... 4165.05 to 5477.50
2011..... 5195.90 to 5740.40
2012.... 4770.35 to 5348.55
2013.... 5566.25 to 6093.35
2014.... 7239.50 to 7840.95
2015.... 7940.10 to 8654.75
2016..... 7927.05 to 8674.70
2017.... 9448.80 to 11114.85
2018.... 10550.90 to ????? |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #8 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:40 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Hehe it's a strange mystery.. like a box of Pandora why it happens.. it's result season for q1 .. probably that's why maybe q1:has always been good or better than expected or an idicatior of trend for rsults for the next quarters. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #9 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | I just checked with corresponding banknifty years and saw in preelection years 2008 and 2013 banknifty fell even though nifty went a little up but it was not too much as banknifty fell (check the candles).... 2014 also banknifty fell in July which was an odd case... And 2018 also is a preelection year..
On closing basis 26200-26000 held well in last 1 month or so... Thrus day briefly breached 26200 and we retested 26400-450 zone... I think if we make lower highs starting from Monday then clear indiction that 25500 shall come... Depends, let's see. For the moment I see on weekly (heiken-aishi) candles banknifty has three dojis (last one being red after several white ones) consecutively.. though closed around same levels, each exceeded previous candles high and low. So it has been expanding and jkuly should give a unidirectional movement of 800-1000 points. |
Banknifty jul fut and spot have brokren June lows like in 2008, 2013, 2014. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
|
| Post: #10 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Till the Time Low of 10550.90 of 05-06-18 is intact, one can remain long in Nifty as per this Theory of June low for new High in July.
Because above theory is For Nifty Figures only. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #11 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| chetan83 wrote: | Till the Time Low of 10550.90 of 05-06-18 is intact, one can remain long in Nifty as per this Theory of June low for new High in July.
Because above theory is For Nifty Figures only. |
I'm aware. There isn't any need to remind. I'm sure people won't confuse the purpose of this thread.
I didn't negate the original post. I added extra information to it by mentioning how nifty did when banknifty broke junes low in july. And I updated in regard to that. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
channasri
Green Belt
Joined: 01 Aug 2012
Posts: 1029
|
| Post: #12 Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:21 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Nifty has strong support at 10600 as per options table. Moreover, we are entering the results season. Therefore, less chances of Nifty crash. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
|
| Post: #13 Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:09 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Nifty 11000 CE high RS26/ & 10800 CE high Rs90/80. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
RAJDESAI1967
Yellow Belt
Joined: 19 Mar 2013
Posts: 518
|
| Post: #14 Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:01 pm Post subject: NS |
|
|
chandruji.....for new high in july you mean all time high?
or any other level? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
|
| Post: #15 Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi Rajdesai,
During 2006 to 2017 in the month of June & July Nifty moved min 8% to max 23%.So if the history repeats I am expecting a min of at least 5%(500-550 points) from June low. June low 10550 + 500=11050 with S/L of 10530.Worst case we can expect double the value of option investment.
Last edited by chandrujimrc on Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:37 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
