| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Will we outperform during April 2012?? |
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
Post: #16  Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:21 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| givemegold wrote: | Read in between the lines:
The news item published in thehindu.com ends with these two paragraphs:
****India’s economic growth during 2011-12 slipped to three year low of 6.9 per cent, down from 8.4 per cent in the preceding two years. The government expects the GDP to expand by 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal.
Earlier in the day, Mr. Subbarao met Mr. Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to discuss the country’s macro-economic situation and is believed to have discussed the steps to be announced in annual credit policy to arrest declining growth.****
Chellam......  |
Supports from global bulls might give Nifty a gap up opening tomorrow - at 5400 --- triggering a forcefull short covering rally 
Bulls thinking big dreaming big... lets c |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #17 Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
givemegold: If wishes were horses, RBI and GoI can win the Indian Derby run in Mahalakshmi, Bombay! After doing all the wrong things incl introducing GAAP, they can win the 3 legged donkey race instead. 1) Improve labour laws (see what happened to Maruti?) 2) Improve land deals (see what happened to Tata in Singur?) 3) Improve inspection regime (60 inspectors drop in every year in factories in Peenya Bangalore) 4) Clarify tax laws (FM says he will reopen cases going back to 1962!!!!!) 5) Let foreigners know who is in charge (Announce opening of FDI in retail and then ..) 6) Put brake on people like Didi who can ruin any organisation (Railways) faster than plague. 7) Have clear cut investment policy and give licence in reasonable time to foreigners ETC
So, givemegold, if wishes were horses, repeat!
Rgds, Prakash Holla |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #18 Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:40 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| prakash, you missed something that FIIs are looking forward to. Increase fuel prices, and not by peanuts. Now that rbi policy drama is over, I expect that to happen very soon |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #19 Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | prakash, you missed something that FIIs are looking forward to. Increase fuel prices, and not by peanuts. Now that rbi policy drama is over, I expect that to happen very soon |
Vinay: I had to stop somewhere! Or write a thesis which no one would read. Thanks for bringing this point out! Anyway, the idiots should be soon raising prices or see a total collapse of POL marketing network!!!!! Rgds, Prakash Holla |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
|
| Post: #20 Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:55 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well nice comments guys..
But I think the FII's are no fools to take this rate cut positively, else we would have seen frentic buying today.
What GOI and RBI did was trying to better FII analysis of economic situation but all they will get is nothing. GOI borrowing is to happen and if rates dont go down then higher yeilds and expensive for GOI.
In a months time we shall see whos the boss? FII or GOI.
Subbu made a real fool of hinself and hail GOI for continually fudging data of national importance. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #21 Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
have a little patience, IT guy!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #22 Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:14 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| pkholla wrote: | givemegold: If wishes were horses, RBI and GoI can win the Indian Derby run in Mahalakshmi, Bombay! After doing all the wrong things incl introducing GAAP, they can win the 3 legged donkey race instead. 1) Improve labour laws (see what happened to Maruti?) 2) Improve land deals (see what happened to Tata in Singur?) 3) Improve inspection regime (60 inspectors drop in every year in factories in Peenya Bangalore) 4) Clarify tax laws (FM says he will reopen cases going back to 1962!!!!!) 5) Let foreigners know who is in charge (Announce opening of FDI in retail and then ..) 6) Put brake on people like Didi who can ruin any organisation (Railways) faster than plague. 7) Have clear cut investment policy and give licence in reasonable time to foreigners ETC
So, givemegold, if wishes were horses, repeat!
Rgds, Prakash Holla |
pkholla, Yes you are right -- although the macro environment as detailed by you is known to all, my observation based on the fact that market can still behave irrationally, ignoring the above facts for a shorter span of time - thus making a volatile situation that can be milked by experienced traders like you.
We all are trading based on some probabilities and bias - which are in-turn based on some indicators / informations etc. We all are trying to align our positions in tandem with market movement / trand... Some time it is right or some time it goes wrong... its part of the business.
Anyway, as expected by me we had a gap up opening - but not upto the mark/anticipation. Taking out some profits on longs, due to the retail inflation numbers - keeping some positions open till tsl hits ---
bye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #23 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
ReCAP:
On 17-04-2012 after rate cut was announced, my observation was >>>**Supports from global bulls might give Nifty a gap up opening tomorrow - at 5400 --- triggering a forcefull short covering rally
Bulls thinking big dreaming big... lets c***
Yesterday, 18-04-2012 around 12 noon... i booked profit on part of my longs, as market was not moving as fast as bulls were dreaming - also retail inflation number was pulling down the market. I kept part of my longs open, till TSL hit.
Now, i am booking profits on some more longs, as rupee depreciation is not giving a good signal. A smll portion of my long position is still open...
Even if market goes up further, i expect ship loads of supply would hit around 5400 dampening further bullishness.
Take care---  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #24 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
BYE BYE longs...see you later bulls  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #25 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:14 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| givemegold wrote: | | BYE BYE longs...see you later bulls |
Dear Bulls, it is not time to jump and exuberance.
Rupee is depreciating -- and looks like RBI is reluctant to intervene, as it is afraid of consequences of such intervention on rupee liquidity.
Europe and the US is on selling mode. as of now (21.56hrs Indiatime) the a/d ratio is tilting towards decline and that would ignite a healthy correction. Prices are ready to comedown, just like our own AGNI V missile after completing the first three stages of upward journey reverse its course towards the earth in the text book precision to hit the target.
FIIs and DIIs are so far net sellers during the whole month of April 2012 (sum-up of daily buy & sell figures - as per moneycontrol data)
FIIs open position in derivates segment is showing that they started heavily hedging their investments - I compiled the difference of the net OI in derivates (ie) difference between 29-March and 19-April EOD net positions Looks at the attachement.
Total OI as on 19-04-2012 eod - Rs.76,000 + crores
Net addition from 29 March on wards -- Rs.17,400+ crores.
Globally as well as locally, the signals are not favoring bullishness.
SAAVDHAAN....bulls don't jump  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
|
| Post: #26 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Just remember that markets don't crash on pessimism .....they fall when optimism is at the peak.
Right now there is a mixed feeling inclined towards pessimism.
So markets are not going to crash.
The sideways movement of our markets is awaiting a series of catalysts mostly from RBI.
....And dont count friday candles ( at least 70 % of them)....
Get ready for .....'sell in may and go away'...... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #27 Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 8:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ajayhkaul wrote: | Just remember that markets don't crash on pessimism .....they fall when optimism is at the peak.
Right now there is a mixed feeling inclined towards pessimism.
So markets are not going to crash.
The sideways movement of our markets is awaiting a series of catalysts mostly from RBI.
....And dont count friday candles ( at least 70 % of them)....
Get ready for .....'sell in may and go away'...... |
Yes.... preparation is going on full swing  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #28 Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Rupee heading towards 53... rbi might comeout reluctantly to intervene if rupee goes above 53... till then |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #29 Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
| rupee may actually improve to 50.50 before going all the way down to 57/58. Global meltdown, worse than 2008, is inevitable but not yet |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
givemegold
White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 121
|
| Post: #30 Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:34 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| givemegold wrote: | | givemegold wrote: | | BYE BYE longs...see you later bulls |
Dear Bulls, it is not time to jump and exuberance.
Rupee is depreciating -- and looks like RBI is reluctant to intervene, as it is afraid of consequences of such intervention on rupee liquidity.
Europe and the US is on selling mode. as of now (21.56hrs Indiatime) the a/d ratio is tilting towards decline and that would ignite a healthy correction. Prices are ready to comedown, just like our own AGNI V missile after completing the first three stages of upward journey reverse its course towards the earth in the text book precision to hit the target.
FIIs and DIIs are so far net sellers during the whole month of April 2012 (sum-up of daily buy & sell figures - as per moneycontrol data)
FIIs open position in derivates segment is showing that they started heavily hedging their investments - I compiled the difference of the net OI in derivates (ie) difference between 29-March and 19-April EOD net positions Looks at the attachement.
Total OI as on 19-04-2012 eod - Rs.76,000 + crores
Net addition from 29 March on wards -- Rs.17,400+ crores.
Globally as well as locally, the signals are not favoring bullishness.
SAAVDHAAN....bulls don't jump |
Market was giving enough indications / symptoms / clues that real smart monies are on selling mode - using every rise as an opportunity to sell.
Smart monies bull avatar is over -- costume change to bear avataar is happening -- Global / local markets will sooner witness healthy correction >>>>> take care   |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
