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Wolfe waves - my concern |
Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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Post: #1  Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:41 pm Post subject: Wolfe waves - my concern |
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| Niftyman wrote: | my targets of NF and BNF bullish wolfes, still a few points short (of so far high of the day)
waiting for its completion |
Kya bolte bhai log
target done for both NF as well as BNF
its target, no target 1 or target 2 or target 3 or 4 or 5 
there is nothing like target 1 or 2 or 3 in wolfe waves theory
only target
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
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| Post: #2 Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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only negative
targets were not done within ETA, but beyond some minutes late, than the stipulated time
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RAJDESAI1967
Yellow Belt
Joined: 19 Mar 2013
Posts: 518
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| Post: #3 Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:19 pm Post subject: NF |
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| sirji,,could you post chart...so we can learn that
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #4 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:05 am Post subject: |
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Posting a bullish wolfe chart for the kind consideration for the members
In this chart one can see that point 6, that is target point should be done by 7.6.18 but it is not done till today, that is by 12.6.
Now my concern is
1. Whether this bullish wolfe be termed as a failed one, as target is not done in stipulated period as mentioned in theory.
OR
2. We should consider it as a valid one, even if ETA is delayed. Now question arises, if treated as valid one but delayed, then how much delayed time (in minutes, hours, days, weeks) is acceptable as valid one. And what about target, should it be original one at point 6, or it should now be extended one, as per extended ETA.
Though this concern is open for all, but I will request Sumesh ji, for his view, as he is the most experienced member here in IC, on wolfe waves.
BTW, I may add that I am discussing here only for point 6 timing and nothing else and similarity with any other chart is coincidental and no bearing on views on that chart.
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Sun08
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Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #5 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:21 am Post subject: |
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My two bit
My observation is that when 1-3 and 2-4 converge sharply, concept of ETA never works. even otherwise ETA is at best a guesstimate. wolfe himself didn't give much importance to ETA, if you read his and his students' notes.
In the past I had tried to find likely delay in such cases but I could find no definite pattern to estimate when this happens.
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sumesh_sol
Brown Belt
Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 2344
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| Post: #6 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| Niftyman wrote: | Posting a bullish wolfe chart for the kind consideration for the members .....
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The proper selection of point1 make all the difference in perceived ETA and actual ETA. Now whether target arrives as per ETA even in perfectly identified WW cannot be said for certainty. I have seen in my experience targets hitting at ETA with 100% precisions in many cases, but also in other cases they arrive early or delayed...
My understanding of ETA is "if everything remains same, price may hit target at approx. time indicated by ETA"...May be market volatility or sudden change due to some strong underlying theory causes these deviations
Like I mentioned, selection of point1 is very critical in drawing proper WW, and its difficult to put in words. Probably with experience your eyes get trained to feel comfortable with a possible WW.
Regards,
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Niftyman
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Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #7 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:24 am Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | My two bit
My observation is that when 1-3 and 2-4 converge sharply, concept of ETA never works. even otherwise ETA is at best a guesstimate. wolfe himself didn't give much importance to ETA, if you read his and his students' notes.
In the past I had tried to find likely delay in such cases but I could find no definite pattern to estimate when this happens. |
Thanks Sun bro
We never knew that you have a say in wolfes also 
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Niftyman
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Posts: 340
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| Post: #8 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:26 am Post subject: |
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-------
Last edited by Niftyman on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:04 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #9 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| sumesh_sol wrote: | | Niftyman wrote: | Posting a bullish wolfe chart for the kind consideration for the members .....
. |
The proper selection of point1 make all the difference in perceived ETA and actual ETA. Now whether target arrives as per ETA even in perfectly identified WW cannot be said for certainty. I have seen in my experience targets hitting at ETA with 100% precisions in many cases, but also in other cases they arrive early or delayed...
My understanding of ETA is "if everything remains same, price may hit target at approx. time indicated by ETA"...May be market volatility or sudden change due to some strong underlying theory causes these deviations
Like I mentioned, selection of point1 is very critical in drawing proper WW, and its difficult to put in words. Probably with experience your eyes get trained to feel comfortable with a possible WW.
Regards, |
Thanks, for posting your point of view.
Well, I am following wolfes for some 7 years now. But hardly faced wolfes with delayed ETA (or may be I havnt paid much importance to such patterns). But lately I found too many of such patterns/incidents.
Initially, I use to avoid such patterns but now use to accept if ETA is formed within a reasonable time (in terms of candles/bars of the chart).
But still I do not pay much importance to such wolfes, because, wolfe is not the only pattern for up and down movement and up and down moves in a scrip (or in such cases) may be because of some other pattern or reason
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #10 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:08 am Post subject: |
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| sumesh_sol wrote: | The proper selection of point1 make all the difference in perceived ETA and actual ETA. Now whether target arrives as per ETA even in perfectly identified WW cannot be said for certainty. I have seen in my experience targets hitting at ETA with 100% precisions in many cases, but also in other cases they arrive early or delayed...
My understanding of ETA is "if everything remains same, price may hit target at approx. time indicated by ETA"...May be market volatility or sudden change due to some strong underlying theory causes these deviations
Like I mentioned, selection of point1 is very critical in drawing proper WW, and its difficult to put in words. Probably with experience your eyes get trained to feel comfortable with a possible WW.
Regards, |
tks. this is something new to me. from what I remember to have read, wolfe has said that point 1 is of least importance and there is enough freedom for its selection unlike 2 and 3 which have to be significant pivots. tks for bringing this to our notice.
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #11 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:42 am Post subject: |
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I was able to dig up my library and found a document by bill wolfe. can't attach it as it is too big and hence posting images of relevant pages.
see comments on ETA in two paras of file "ETA" and comments on point 1 on files "Point 1-sh1" and "Point 1-sh2".
BTW, many charts in the document show targets met before or after ETA. volume at 5 is very important and many charts posted don't show it.
hope this helps
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #12 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| Msg deleted.
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #13 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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but I do not know, what you have posted, as I have not read it.
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #14 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| No problem instead of posting in the regular thread I have wrongly posted here and deleted.
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #15 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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funny logic
you posted here at 11.52
and in regular thread at 12.09
now dont say that you lost your internet connection in between
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